天然气输配站场风险评价研究

发布时间：2019-04-01 09:07

【摘要】：随着我国石油和天然气工业的快速发展,油气管道建设突飞猛进。目前管道运输已成为我国陆上油气运输的主要方式。随着天然气长输管道的快速增长,其在我国一次性能源消费结构中所占比重也迅速上升。在国内塔里木、长庆、四川、青海四个大型天然气田产量稳步增长的前提下,积极引进国外天然气资源,如中亚管道、中俄管道和正在修建的中缅油气管道。形成了覆盖全国,连通海外,资源多元,调度集中的天然气供气体系。其中天然气输配站场,如集气站场、输气站场、城市配气站场等各类站场,在整个天然气管道系统中处于核心地位,其中各种复杂设施的风险状况作为生产的重中之重,尤其值得我们关注。本论文参照管道指数评分法建立天然气站场的风险管理模型,同时结合层析分析法,专家评分法和专家会议法等对风险因素进行定量和定性的分析,从而确定风险因素的权重。论文分为以下几个方面 1、简要阐述了天然气站场风险评价技术的发展背景、发展动态、国内外研究现状及其科学依据。 2、简要介绍目前的风险评价技术。同时对文中用到的几种风险评价方法,指数分析法,层次分析法,菲尔德法(专家评分法)原理,步骤和操作方法做简单的阐述,同时对yaahp层次分析法软件做了一个简单介绍。 3、风险评价模型方面。建立了站场失效因素模型。包括输气站场位置及环境、站内埋地管道、地面压力设备、运转设备、站内阀门、仪器仪表、工艺流程、站内甲烷泄漏、消防系统和安全预案十部分；采用MUHLBAUER提出的指数评分法对模型中的10个风险指标进行评价 4、站场风险评价的评判标准。建立了详细的站场风险因素和站场风险因素的评分标准(包括次级因素)。 5、站场风险因素的权重确定。结合层次分析法和菲尔德法对风险因素进行定量和定性的分析,确定风险因素的权重,并计算出包括所有次级因素的每个失效点的最高分以方便实际应用操作。 6.风险可接受性准则结合风险与成本的关系和ALARP原则绘制出风险矩阵图,确定风险的可接受性。 7、以上风险评价方案的实际应用,找出主要风险因素及其应采取的控制措施。在写作过程中,本论文在采用通用的风险管控研究方法的同时,还将结合国内油气管道站场的实际情况,综合应用风险管理领域中的多种理论与方法,以增强研究过程的科学性和研究结果的可靠性。本论文的研究工作主要前期主要是研究国内外对此课题研究的最新动向和最新成果,并查阅相关文献,丰富风险管控理论；然后根据国内天然气站场目前的实际情况建立风险管理模型,对模型中的风险因素进行定量和定性分析,对得到的数据进行评价,制定相应的处理方案。后期的主要工作是根据研究的结果,对站场相关的问题进行研究,并拿出科学有效的解决方案。
[Abstract]:With the rapid development of China's oil and gas industry, the construction of oil and gas pipelines is advancing by leaps and bounds. At present, pipeline transportation has become the main mode of onshore oil and gas transportation in China. With the rapid growth of long-distance natural gas pipeline, its proportion in China's one-off energy consumption structure is also rising rapidly. Under the premise of steady increase in production of four large-scale natural gas fields in Tarim, Changqing, Sichuan and Qinghai, foreign natural gas resources, such as the Central Asian pipeline, the Sino-Russian pipeline and the Sino-Burmese oil and gas pipeline under construction, are actively introduced. It forms a natural gas supply system covering the whole country, connecting overseas, diversified resources and centralized dispatching. Among them, natural gas transmission and distribution stations, such as gas gathering stations, gas transmission stations, urban gas distribution stations and other stations, are at the core of the whole natural gas pipeline system, in which the risk situation of various complex facilities is the top priority in production. Especially worthy of our attention. In this paper, the risk management model of natural gas station yard is established according to the pipeline index scoring method. At the same time, the quantitative and qualitative analysis of risk factors is carried out by means of chromatography analysis, expert scoring method and expert meeting method, so as to determine the weight of risk factors. The paper is divided into the following aspects: 1. Briefly describes the development background, development trend, research status and scientific basis of natural gas station and yard risk assessment technology. Secondly, the current risk assessment technology is briefly introduced. At the same time, several risk assessment methods, such as index analysis, analytic hierarchy process (AHP), field method (expert scoring), are briefly described in this paper. At the same time, a brief introduction to the software of yaahp analytic hierarchy process (AHP) is also given. 3, risk assessment model. The failure factor model of station yard is established. Including the location and environment of the gas transmission station, underground pipelines, ground pressure equipment, operating equipment, valves, instrumentation, process flow, methane leakage inside the station, fire protection system and safety plan ten parts; The index scoring method proposed by MUHLBAUER is used to evaluate the 10 risk indexes in the model, 4 and the evaluation standard of station and yard risk. Set up a detailed site risk factors and site risk factors scoring standards (including secondary factors). 5, station risk factor weight determination. Combined with analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and field method, the risk factors are analyzed quantitatively and qualitatively, the weight of risk factors is determined, and the maximum score of each failure point including all secondary factors is calculated in order to facilitate the practical application. 6. The risk acceptability criterion combines the relationship between risk and cost and the ALARP principle to draw a risk matrix diagram to determine the acceptability of risk. 7. The practical application of the above risk assessment scheme to find out the main risk factors and the control measures to be taken. In the process of writing, while adopting the general risk control research method, this paper will also apply various theories and methods in the field of risk management in combination with the actual situation of the domestic oil and gas pipeline yard. In order to enhance the scientific nature of the research process and the reliability of the research results. The main research work of this paper is to study the latest trends and achievements of this subject at home and abroad, and consult the relevant literature to enrich the theory of risk control. Then the risk management model is established according to the actual situation of the domestic natural gas stations, and the risk factors in the model are quantitatively and qualitatively analyzed, the data obtained are evaluated, and the corresponding treatment scheme is worked out. The main work in the later period is to study the problems related to the station and yard according to the results of the research, and to come up with scientific and effective solutions.
【学位授予单位】：昆明理工大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F426.22;TE97

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