基于系统动力学的风电产业政策模拟研究
发布时间：2019-04-29 15:40
【摘要】：鉴于日益增长的能源需求和传统能源的不断耗竭，以及其带来的严重的环境污染问题，可再生能源的发展已成为当今世界各国的关注的焦点。根据我国的资源禀赋状况，风电资源既具备了良好的社会效益，同时也具备着良好的环境效益，近年来，风电技术水平日益成熟，近海风电的发展迅速，大大降低了发电成本，因此，风电产业必将成为我国发展可再生能源产业中的重点产业。2006年可再生能源法的颁布，使风电产业的发展进入了一个更加规范和不断完善的发展阶段。本文立足于供需关系的角度，通过建立风电产业的系统动力学模型，分析现阶段我国风电产业的发展现状，对未来的发展方向进行政策模拟研究，并提出优化改善方案。 首先，对我国风能资源的禀赋情况进行描述，包括陆地风能资源和海上风能资源，总结风能资源的地域和季节特点。分析描述现阶段我国风电产业的发展状况，其中主要包括对风电产业发展的三类结构模式的介绍，对风电产业发展历经的四个阶段的评述，以及近年来国家对于在扶持风电产业发展过程中提出的相关政策等。 其次，立足于风电产业发展的供需关系角度，建立风电产业系统动力学模型。根据系统总体的初步因果分析，将风电产业系统分为供给子系统和需求子系统，并对两个子系统的内部各个要素进行深入分析，其中供给子系统主要包括资源、劳动力、资金和技术四个主要影响因素；需求子系统主要包括经济发展需求和生活用电需求两个主要因素，通过选取影响各要素不同变量之间的相互作用、相互影响关系，构建出风电产业的系统动力学模型。 最后，运用“十一五”期间的原始数据模型进行效果检验，验证模型的预测可靠性，利用2010年的基础数据，对“十二五”和“十三五”期间的发展趋势进行政策模拟预测，通过调整不同变量的参数值，比较在不同政策倾向下风电产业的发展走势，根据资源优化配置的原则，对方案进行优化调控，提出未来10年风电产业发展的政策方案。最后总结研究得出的结论，探讨了研究中存在的不足和改进方案，对这一领域的研究未来进行了长远的展望。
[Abstract]:In view of the increasing demand for energy and the constant depletion of traditional energy, as well as the serious environmental pollution caused by it, the development of renewable energy has become the focus of attention in the world today. According to our country's resource endowment, wind power resources not only have good social benefits, but also have good environmental benefits. In recent years, wind power technology level is maturing day by day, offshore wind power develops rapidly, and the cost of power generation is greatly reduced. Therefore, wind power industry is bound to become the key industry in the development of renewable energy industry in our country. The promulgation of renewable energy law in 2006 has made the development of wind power industry into a more standardized and continuous development stage. Based on the relationship between supply and demand, this paper sets up the system dynamics model of wind power industry, analyzes the current situation of wind power industry development in China at present, carries on the policy simulation research to the future development direction, and puts forward the optimized improvement scheme. Firstly, the endowment of wind energy resources in China is described, including land wind energy resources and offshore wind energy resources, and the regional and seasonal characteristics of wind energy resources are summarized. This paper analyzes and describes the development of wind power industry in China at this stage, which mainly includes the introduction of three types of structural models for the development of wind power industry, and comments on the four stages experienced in the development of wind power industry. And in recent years the state in support of wind power industry development in the process of relevant policies and so on. Secondly, based on the relationship between supply and demand of wind power industry, the system dynamics model of wind power industry is established. According to the preliminary causal analysis of the whole system, the wind power industry system is divided into the supply subsystem and the demand subsystem, and the internal elements of the two subsystems are analyzed in depth, in which the supply subsystem mainly includes resources and labor force. Four main influencing factors of finance and technology; The demand subsystem mainly includes two main factors: economic development demand and domestic electricity demand. The system dynamics model of wind power industry is constructed by selecting the interaction between different variables and influencing each other. Finally, using the original data model during the Eleventh five-year Plan period to test the effectiveness of the model, verify the reliability of the model, and use the basic data of 2010 to simulate and forecast the development trend of the 12th five-year Plan and the 13th five-year Plan period. By adjusting the parameter values of different variables and comparing the development trend of wind power industry under different policy trends, according to the principle of optimal allocation of resources, the scheme is optimized and regulated, and the policy scheme for the development of wind power industry in the next 10 years is put forward. Finally, the conclusion of the study is summarized, the deficiency and improvement scheme are discussed, and the future of the research in this field is prospected.
【学位授予单位】：中国地质大学（北京）
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F426.61
[Abstract]:In view of the increasing demand for energy and the constant depletion of traditional energy, as well as the serious environmental pollution caused by it, the development of renewable energy has become the focus of attention in the world today. According to our country's resource endowment, wind power resources not only have good social benefits, but also have good environmental benefits. In recent years, wind power technology level is maturing day by day, offshore wind power develops rapidly, and the cost of power generation is greatly reduced. Therefore, wind power industry is bound to become the key industry in the development of renewable energy industry in our country. The promulgation of renewable energy law in 2006 has made the development of wind power industry into a more standardized and continuous development stage. Based on the relationship between supply and demand, this paper sets up the system dynamics model of wind power industry, analyzes the current situation of wind power industry development in China at present, carries on the policy simulation research to the future development direction, and puts forward the optimized improvement scheme. Firstly, the endowment of wind energy resources in China is described, including land wind energy resources and offshore wind energy resources, and the regional and seasonal characteristics of wind energy resources are summarized. This paper analyzes and describes the development of wind power industry in China at this stage, which mainly includes the introduction of three types of structural models for the development of wind power industry, and comments on the four stages experienced in the development of wind power industry. And in recent years the state in support of wind power industry development in the process of relevant policies and so on. Secondly, based on the relationship between supply and demand of wind power industry, the system dynamics model of wind power industry is established. According to the preliminary causal analysis of the whole system, the wind power industry system is divided into the supply subsystem and the demand subsystem, and the internal elements of the two subsystems are analyzed in depth, in which the supply subsystem mainly includes resources and labor force. Four main influencing factors of finance and technology; The demand subsystem mainly includes two main factors: economic development demand and domestic electricity demand. The system dynamics model of wind power industry is constructed by selecting the interaction between different variables and influencing each other. Finally, using the original data model during the Eleventh five-year Plan period to test the effectiveness of the model, verify the reliability of the model, and use the basic data of 2010 to simulate and forecast the development trend of the 12th five-year Plan and the 13th five-year Plan period. By adjusting the parameter values of different variables and comparing the development trend of wind power industry under different policy trends, according to the principle of optimal allocation of resources, the scheme is optimized and regulated, and the policy scheme for the development of wind power industry in the next 10 years is put forward. Finally, the conclusion of the study is summarized, the deficiency and improvement scheme are discussed, and the future of the research in this field is prospected.
【学位授予单位】：中国地质大学（北京）
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F426.61
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