基于实物期权理论的节能量保证型合同能源管理研究

发布时间：2019-05-11 23:42

【摘要】：由于日益紧张的能源资源和持续恶化的自然环境，节能成为全世界共同关注的话题。耗能用户通过合同能源管理项目实施节能改造能够有效地降低能耗，因此对合同能源管理特别是应用较为广泛的节能量保证型项目的研究对于推动我国全面开展节能减排、促进经济循环发展具有相当重要的理论与实践意义。目前的节能量保证型合同能源管理项目中，节能服务公司通常按照其实施相关节能改造项目的历史经验来确定承诺节能量和额外节能收益分享比例。这种做法忽略了未来不确定因素对节能项目的影响，而这些不确定因素恰恰提供了未来可能选择的决策变化依据。因此，仅仅靠主观历史经验确定节能量保证型合同能源管理项目的承诺节能量及额外节能收益分享比例是不合理的。为解决上述问题，，本论文首先分析了节能量保证型合同能源管理项目的运行过程及特点，指出项目实施中存在的不确定性及实物期权特性，提出节能量保证型合同能源管理项目具有实物期权特性且适用实物期权理论及模型的结论。然后通过对节能量保证型合同能源管理承诺节能量进行的分析，构建了项目能源价格和实际节能量模型、承诺节能量模型以及节能总收益模型，并利用该模型对美国某高校的节能改造项目进行了实证研究和分析，为不确定环境下的节能量保证型合同能源管理项目决策提供了一个新思路和定量分析方法。本文为解决节能量保证型项目在实际应用中未能合理量化承诺节能量的问题进行相关理论研究，并提出给予案例分析的可以有效指导实践的相关理论模型，弥补了国内对于节能量保证型合同能源管理相关理论研究的不足。论文的研究成果对合同能源管理模式在我国更好的推行以及建设能源节约型、环境友好型社会等方面具有较大的理论意义和实际应用价值。
[Abstract]:Due to the increasing shortage of energy resources and the deteriorating natural environment, energy saving has become a topic of common concern all over the world. The energy consumption users can effectively reduce the energy consumption through the energy saving transformation of the contract energy management project, so the research on the contract energy management, especially the energy saving guarantee project, which is widely used, can promote the energy saving and emission reduction in our country in an all-round way. It is of great theoretical and practical significance to promote the development of economic cycle. In the current energy-saving and energy-saving contract energy management projects, energy-saving service companies usually determine the proportion of promised energy saving and additional energy-saving benefits according to their historical experience in implementing relevant energy-saving transformation projects. This approach ignores the impact of future uncertainties on energy-saving projects, which provide the basis for possible decision-making changes in the future. Therefore, it is unreasonable to determine the promised energy saving and the sharing ratio of additional energy saving benefits of energy-saving contract energy management projects only by subjective historical experience. In order to solve the above problems, this paper first analyzes the operation process and characteristics of energy-saving and guaranteed contract energy management project, and points out the uncertainty and real option characteristics in the implementation of the project. The conclusion that the energy-saving contract energy management project has the characteristics of real option and is applicable to the theory and model of real option is put forward. Then, through the analysis of the energy saving promise of energy saving contract energy management, the project energy price and actual energy saving model, the promised energy saving model and the total energy saving income model are constructed. The model is used to study and analyze the energy saving transformation project of a university in the United States, which provides a new idea and quantitative analysis method for the decision-making of energy-saving contract energy management project in uncertain environment. In this paper, the relevant theoretical research is carried out to solve the problem that the energy saving project can not reasonably quantify the commitment energy saving in practical application, and the relevant theoretical model which can effectively guide the practice is put forward. It makes up for the deficiency of domestic research on energy-saving contract energy management. The research results of this paper have great theoretical significance and practical application value for the better implementation of contract energy management model in China and the construction of energy-saving and environment-friendly society.
【学位授予单位】：华北电力大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F426.2

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