比较优势演化对我国制造业升级影响的实证研究

发布时间：2019-06-08 13:19

【摘要】：进入上中等收入阶段以来,随着经济的发展和人民生活水平的提高,我国传统生产要素的比较优势逐渐减弱。长期以来,制造业作为经济增长的引擎,与经济发展息息相关。因此,把握比较优势演化的客观规律,探索制造业升级的路径,对我国向高收入阶段的跨越具有重大意义。本文的研究目标是探究比较优势演化对制造业升级的影响,为我国把握比较优势演化的客观规律,实现制造业在全球价值链地位的提升提供政策建议。因此,本文在文献综述的基础上,首先构建比较优势演化的评价指标体系,量化分析了我国进入中等收入阶段后的比较优势的动态演化;其次,用出口复杂度度量了进入中等收入阶段以来我国制造业在全球价值链上的地位,并从三个视角对我国制造业升级进程进行了统计分析;最后,将27类制造业行业分为劳动密集型、资本密集型、技术密集型三个类别,构建了灰色理论预测GM(1,N)模型,实证分析了比较优势演化对制造业升级进程的影响,在此基础上进一步厘清了进入中等收入阶段以来我国比较优势动态演化和制造业升级的历史进程,以及比较优势演化对制造业升级的影响机理。研究结果表明:(1)比较优势的整体发展趋势是在逐渐改善的。然而初级生产要素到目前为止具有比较优势,但其比较优势逐渐减弱;高级生产要素的比较优势呈现大致上涨的趋势,但当前仍处于劣势地位。(2)从总体层面来看我国制造业在全球价值链的地位是在逐步提升的,但是与世界其他国家相比发展现状并不理想,除个别行业处于领先地位外,大部分行业的发展不仅落后于发达国家,而且落后于部分发展中国家。(3)生产要素的比较优势演化对我国制造业升级呈正向的推动作用。其中劳动力供给量、资本充裕程度、人力资源水平、创新研发能力、高新技术水平这五个生产要素的比较优势演化分别对技术密集型制造业行业、资本密集型制造业行业、资本密集型制造业行业、技术密集型制造业行业、技术密集型制造业行业的驱动系数最高。(4)我国很多所谓的高新技术行业并非是高知识含量、高附加值的行业,很多行业虽然本身被认定为高新技术行业,但是我国参与的其实是低技术含量、低知识含量、低附加值的生产环节,所谓的高新技术行业的竞争力主要来源于我国的低劳动成本。本文的创新点:(1)在比较优势演化的量化方法上,现有的研究主要是利用比较优势衡量指数分析比较优势演化进程,而本文则是通过构建包涵初级生产要素和高级生产要素在内的较为完整的比较优势评价指标体系对我国比较优势动态演化趋势进行量化分析。(2)在指标数据的处理上,已有的研究仅选取某一个或多个生产要素,分析其动态变化对制造业升级的影响。本文则是取各个生产要素指标与其世界平均值之比,更为客观的度量各个生产要素的比较优势演化,进而分析其对制造业升级的影响。(3)在模型设定上,目前基本选用面板数据模型分析某一个或某几个影响因素对制造业升级的影响。本文选取了灰色理论预测GM(1,N)模型进行实证分析,解决了各个生产要素比较优势演化评价指标分行业数据获取方面的困难。
[Abstract]:With the development of the economy and the improvement of the people's living standard, the comparative advantage of the traditional production factors is gradually weakened. For a long time, manufacturing, as an engine of economic growth, is closely linked to economic development. Therefore, it is of great significance to grasp the objective law of comparative advantage evolution and explore the path of manufacturing upgrading. The purpose of this paper is to explore the influence of comparative advantage evolution on the upgrading of manufacturing industry, and to provide policy suggestions for China to grasp the objective law of comparative advantage evolution and to realize the promotion of manufacturing industry in the global value chain. Therefore, on the basis of the literature review, firstly, the evaluation index system of comparative advantage evolution is constructed, and the dynamic evolution of the comparative advantage after entering the middle-income stage in China is analyzed and the second, The export complexity measures the position of the manufacturing industry in the global value chain since the middle-income stage, and makes a statistical analysis of the manufacturing upgrade process from the three perspectives; and finally, the 27 manufacturing industries are divided into labor-intensive and capital-intensive. The grey theory is used to predict the GM (1, N) model, and the effect of the comparative advantage evolution on the upgrading process of the manufacturing industry is analyzed. On this basis, the historical process of the dynamic evolution of the comparative advantage and the upgrading of the manufacturing industry in China has been further clarified, and the influence mechanism of the comparative advantage evolution on the upgrading of the manufacturing industry is further clarified. The results show that: (1) The overall development trend of comparative advantage is gradually improving. However, the primary production factor has a comparative advantage so far, but its comparative advantage is gradually weakened; the comparative advantage of the high-level production elements presents a generally upward trend, but is still at a disadvantage. (2) From the overall level, the status of the manufacturing in the global value chain is gradually increasing, but the development status is not ideal as compared with other countries in the world, and in addition to the leading position of individual industries, the development of most industries is not only behind the developed countries, And it's behind some of the developing countries. (3) The comparative advantage evolution of the production factors has a positive effect on the upgrading of the manufacturing industry in China. Among them, the comparative advantage evolution of five production factors of labor supply, capital adequacy, human resource level, innovation R & D ability and high and new technology level has been applied to the industry of technology-intensive manufacturing industry, capital-intensive manufacturing industry and capital-intensive manufacturing industry, respectively. The technology-intensive manufacturing industry, the technology-intensive manufacturing industry, has the highest drive factor. (4) Many of the so-called high-tech industries in China are not the industries with high knowledge content and high value-added value. The competitiveness of the so-called high-tech industry is mainly from the low labor cost of our country. The innovation point of this paper is: (1) In the quantitative method of comparative advantage evolution, the existing research is to compare the comparative advantage evolution process with the comparative advantage measurement index, In this paper, a more complete comparative advantage evaluation index system, including primary production factors and advanced production factors, is used to quantitatively analyze the dynamic evolution trend of comparative advantage in China. (2) In the process of index data, the existing research only selects one or more production factors, and analyzes the influence of the dynamic change on the upgrading of the manufacturing industry. In this paper, the ratio of each production factor index and the world average value is taken, and the comparative advantage evolution of each production factor is more objective, and the effect on the upgrading of the manufacturing industry is analyzed. (3) In the model setting, a panel data model is selected to analyze the influence of one or several factors on the upgrading of the manufacturing industry. In this paper, the grey theory prediction GM (1, N) model is selected for empirical analysis, and the difficulty in the data acquisition of the index of comparative advantage evolution of each production factor is solved.
【学位授予单位】：曲阜师范大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：F424

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