低碳约束下湖南省产业结构优化研究
发布时间：2019-07-12 13:15
【摘要】：在湖南省"十二五"规划工业产业节能减排的背景下,如何在碳减排目标的基础上,实现产业结构优化,成为湖南省面临的重大挑战.本文构建低碳约束下湖南省主导产业选择指标体系,计算并选取湖南省无低碳约束和有低碳约束下的主导产业.进一步,本文设计无低碳约束、弱低碳约束和强低碳约束三种情景模拟,分析不同的低碳约束条件对湖南省主导产业选择的影响.本文结论如下:1)无低碳约束条件下,湖南省主导产业包括有色金属冶炼及压延加工业等碳生产力较低的行业,低碳约束条件下,湖南省主导产业包括食品制造业等碳生产力较高的行业.这表明,考虑低碳约束条件,湖南省主导产业由碳生产力较低的行业向碳生产力较高的行业转变.2)情景模拟结果表明,一些传统支柱型产业仍是湖南省产业结构优化中需重点发展的产业,且随着低碳政策的深化和节能减排目标的扩大,战略性产业如医药制造业成为主导产业,在产业结构优化中发挥中坚作用.
[Abstract]:Under the background of energy saving and emission reduction of industrial industry planned in Hunan Province during the 12th five-year Plan, how to optimize the industrial structure on the basis of carbon emission reduction target has become a major challenge for Hunan Province. In this paper, the index system of Hunan leading industry selection under low carbon constraint is constructed, and the leading industry without low carbon constraint and low carbon constraint in Hunan Province is calculated and selected. Furthermore, three scenarios, no low carbon constraint, weak low carbon constraint and strong low carbon constraint, are designed to analyze the influence of different low carbon constraints on the choice of leading industries in Hunan Province. The conclusions of this paper are as follows: 1) under the condition of no low carbon constraint, the leading industries in Hunan Province include the industries with low carbon productivity, such as non-ferrous metal smelting and calender processing industry, and under the condition of low carbon constraints, the leading industries in Hunan Province include the industries with high carbon productivity such as food manufacturing. This shows that considering the low carbon constraints, the leading industries in Hunan Province have changed from the industries with low carbon productivity to the industries with high carbon productivity. 2) the results of situational simulation show that some traditional pillar industries are still industries that need to be developed in the optimization of industrial structure in Hunan Province, and with the deepening of low carbon policy and the expansion of energy conservation and emission reduction targets, strategic industries such as pharmaceutical manufacturing industry have become the leading industries. It plays a key role in the optimization of industrial structure.
【作者单位】： 中国社会科学院数量经济与技术经济研究所;湖南大学经济与贸易学院;两型社会与生态文明协同创新中心;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金项目(71303076) 博士后科学基金面上资助项目(2012M510057);博士后科学基金特别资助项目(2013T60219)
【分类号】：F427;F205
[Abstract]:Under the background of energy saving and emission reduction of industrial industry planned in Hunan Province during the 12th five-year Plan, how to optimize the industrial structure on the basis of carbon emission reduction target has become a major challenge for Hunan Province. In this paper, the index system of Hunan leading industry selection under low carbon constraint is constructed, and the leading industry without low carbon constraint and low carbon constraint in Hunan Province is calculated and selected. Furthermore, three scenarios, no low carbon constraint, weak low carbon constraint and strong low carbon constraint, are designed to analyze the influence of different low carbon constraints on the choice of leading industries in Hunan Province. The conclusions of this paper are as follows: 1) under the condition of no low carbon constraint, the leading industries in Hunan Province include the industries with low carbon productivity, such as non-ferrous metal smelting and calender processing industry, and under the condition of low carbon constraints, the leading industries in Hunan Province include the industries with high carbon productivity such as food manufacturing. This shows that considering the low carbon constraints, the leading industries in Hunan Province have changed from the industries with low carbon productivity to the industries with high carbon productivity. 2) the results of situational simulation show that some traditional pillar industries are still industries that need to be developed in the optimization of industrial structure in Hunan Province, and with the deepening of low carbon policy and the expansion of energy conservation and emission reduction targets, strategic industries such as pharmaceutical manufacturing industry have become the leading industries. It plays a key role in the optimization of industrial structure.
【作者单位】： 中国社会科学院数量经济与技术经济研究所;湖南大学经济与贸易学院;两型社会与生态文明协同创新中心;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金项目(71303076) 博士后科学基金面上资助项目(2012M510057);博士后科学基金特别资助项目(2013T60219)
【分类号】：F427;F205
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