基于行业异质性的中国工业发展与碳排放的关系研究

发布时间：2019-07-26 13:28

【摘要】：利用对数平均迪氏指数法将工业碳排放总量分解为工业产出规模效应、行业结构效应、行业能源消费结构效应和能源强度效应,从总效应角度研究了上述四个效应对碳排放总量的作用,其中前三个效应对碳排放均有拉动作用,工业产出规模效应的作用最大。能源强度效应对全行业的碳排放量有较强的抑制作用。其次,根据1995~2011年工业32个行业四个效应值及其碳排放的面板数据模型,从总体样本和分行业样本两个层面分别研究四大效应对中国工业碳排放的影响。总样本研究表明,全行业工业产出规模效应和行业结构效应对碳排放有显著的正向和负向影响。分行业样本研究根据能源强度、RD投入、外资比重及资本密集度分类标准对工业行业进行分类,研究基于行业差异的各因素对中国工业碳排放的影响。结果表明,工业产出规模效应和行业结构效应对碳排放的正向影响和负向影响不存在行业差异,行业能源消费结构效应和能源强度效应对不同行业碳排放的影响有一定的差异。最后,根据实证结果提出合理的减排建议。
[Abstract]:The logarithmic average Di's index method is used to decompose the total industrial carbon emissions into industrial output scale effect, industry structure effect, industry energy consumption structure effect and energy intensity effect. The effects of the above four effects on the total carbon emission are studied from the point of view of the total effect, among which the first three effects have the pulling effect on the carbon emission, and the industrial output scale effect has the greatest effect. The energy intensity effect has a strong inhibitory effect on the carbon emissions of the whole industry. Secondly, according to the panel data model of four effect values and their carbon emissions in 32 industries from 1995 to 2011, the effects of the four effects on industrial carbon emissions in China are studied from the overall sample and the sub-industry sample, respectively. The total sample study shows that the scale effect and industry structure effect of industrial output in the whole industry have significant positive and negative effects on carbon emissions. According to the classification criteria of energy intensity, RD input, foreign capital proportion and capital intensity, the industrial industry is classified by industry sample, and the influence of various factors based on industry differences on industrial carbon emissions in China is studied. The results show that there is no industry difference between the positive and negative effects of industrial output scale effect and industry structure effect on carbon emissions, and the effects of industry energy consumption structure effect and energy intensity effect on carbon emissions from different industries are different to some extent. Finally, according to the empirical results, put forward reasonable emission reduction suggestions.
【作者单位】：南京信息工程大学经济管理学院;
【基金】：国家社会科学基金项目(10CJY052) 国家自然科学基金项目(71203099) 南京信息工程大学制造业发展研究院优势学科资助
【分类号】：F424;F205

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