基于税收非均衡增长视角的财政风险问题研究

  本文关键词：基于税收非均衡增长视角的财政风险问题研究，由笔耕文化传播整理发布。

基于税收非均衡增长视角的财政风险问题研究 Research on the financial risk based on the perspective of tax non equilibrium growth

作者：关飞 作者本人请参看权利申明

导师姓名：凌岚

学位授予单位：天津财经大学

授予学位：博士

学位年度：2011

专业：财政学

关键词：

摘要:

现阶段，我国税收增加激发全社会关于税收能否过快增加的担心和这类增加能否腐蚀税基和减轻微观税负程度的争议和思虑。该文的研讨由此睁开，将其引向当局财务运转平安性和稳固性领域，商量税收支出非平衡增加对财务运转系统的冲击，即形成财务风险的能够性、构成途径及效果。其研讨内容触及今朝的诸多热门话题，试图从这些景象动身，从税收非平衡更改影响当局财务运转风险的视角，剖析和提醒这些景象的逻辑联系关系和内涵机制。税收非平衡增加重要表示情势界定为两种，即超凡规增加和非均衡增加。这两种情势分离代表了从纵向时光序列和横向睁开的根本研讨思绪。重要商量的内容包含了三个层面，一是普通性的财务风险，二是处所财务风险，三是中心和处所财权和事权不婚配招致的轨制性财务风险。这三个层面都与税收非平衡增加有着亲密的接洽，即经由过程税收增加延长到财务进出及赤字，再到轨制层面的分税制，也就是，从纵向税收和经济增加比较到横向的区域增加差别剖析，再到中心和处所的财务关系轨制性剖解。与此同时，该文应用最新的数据、现实和政策，力图以全新的现实剖析、事宜追踪和数据分化来展示我国现阶段财务风险。该文的重要不雅点以下：其一，税收增加过快影响税源，腐蚀税基，而假如根本公共产物和办事不到位，经济体的公共风险就会加年夜，将来财务兜底时，财务系统稳固性或将遭到冲击，财务风险弗成不防。这乃是税收增加、财务增加对财务系统稳固性和财务风险潜伏性的传导进程。若何在当局、企业和居平易近三者之间公道切分公民财富这块“年夜蛋糕”，须要税收施展应有的正面感化。“矫枉过正”，“太快”也是一种风险，假如税收增加过快，而企业税负不减，居平易近支出增加迟缓，历久下去，这类误差不克不及获得改正，就会对经济成长和社会稳固带来影响，晦气于改良当局、企业和居平易近三者之间的关系。其二，绝对于蓬勃国度，最近几年来我国税收增加出现出超凡规增加的非平衡成长状况，这类税收和财务的充盈包管了我国转轨期财务政策的有用履行和收入增加的须要。以经济增加和税收构成的内涵机制为动力，我国现阶段的税收和财务增加无力地减缓了公共财务体系体例下收入扩展带来的赤字风险。但在经济疾速成长的时刻，不该听任财务进出涌现较年夜赤字，，将来收入责任加年夜更应掌握赤字程度，在无限的支出前提下积聚将来应对赤字的有用财力。其三，虽然我国现阶段名义的财务赤字率绝对较低，但隐性赤字和透支赤字的存在解释财务风险的产生不是没有能够。因为当局支出和财务进出的不标准，我国财务真实的赤字状态难以厘清。虽然以后国债累赘率不高，但国债范围扩展应当是历久趋向，或将带来必定的风险，中心财务风险重要集中于此。其四，现阶段财务风险重要集中于处所而不是中心，特殊是处所隐形欠债风险和“地盘财务”风险弗成小觑。处所财务风险是由多种庞杂身分形成，好比地域间经济成长的不屈衡、分税制等轨制性身分。将来，改造和深化分税制下的中心与处所财务关系，调剂中心与处所事权财权的划分，削减处所当局的财务进出缺口，是掌握隐性赤字和透支赤字增长的根本对策。针对税收非平衡增加中的财务风险，该文提出了部门管理与防备思绪，即过度扩展构造性减税范围；许可处所当局自立发债；持续加年夜平易近素性公共收入；慢慢推动重构中心和处所财务关系。

Abstract:

At this stage, China's tax increase can stimulate the whole society to increase the ability of the tax can increase the tax base and reduce the degree of micro tax burden of controversy and consideration. The research of this paper will be open to the financial operation of the government, and to discuss the impact of the non balance of tax expenditure on the financial operation system. Its research content has touched many hot topics at present, trying to start from these scenes, from the perspective of tax non balance changes affecting the financial operation risk of the government, and to analyze and remind the logical connection and connotation mechanism of these phenomena. Tax non balance increase the important representation of the situation is defined as two kinds, namely, the extraordinary increase and the non balanced increase. These two forms are separated from the vertical time series and horizontal opening of the fundamental research ideas. Important to discuss the content contains three aspects, one is the financial risk of the ordinary, the local finance risk, three is incurred by the central and local financial authority and powers is not marriage, rail system of financial risk. The three dimensions are related to tax non balance increase has a close contact, by tax procedure to add an extension to the financial deficit and outgoing to rail level of tax sharing system, that is, from vertical tax and economic increase compared to regions of lateral increase difference analysis, to central and local financial relationship between rail system of dissection. At the same time, this paper uses the latest data, reality and policy, trying to analyze the new reality, tracking and data differentiation to show our country at present stage financial risk. The important indecent point: the one is that tax increase fast of tax sources, corrosion of the tax base, and if the basic public products and services are not in place, economy of public risk will increase Nianye, future financial reveal all the details, financial system stability or will suffer shocks, financial risk Eph into plates. This is the conduction process of tax increase, financial increase to the financial system stability and financial risk potential. How in the government, enterprises and residents in the three fair segmentation of the wealth of citizens of this "big cake", it is necessary to have a positive impact on tax. "Overkill", "too fast" is a risk, if the tax increase too fast, and the corporate tax reduction, residents near spending growth is slow, go down for a long time, this kind of error cannot obtain correct, will to economic growth and social stable impact, adverse to modify the relationship between good authorities, enterprises and residents in three. Second, in the last few years, the tax increase in our country has increased the non balanced growth, which has guaranteed the effective performance of financial policy and the need to increase revenue in China's transitional period. With the economic growth and tax structure of the connotation of the mechanism as the driving force, China's current stage of tax and financial increase can not slow down the public financial system to expand the revenue growth of the deficit risk. But moments in the rapid economic growth, not the allowed financial import and the emergence of larger deficits and future income, plus Nianye should grasp the degree of deficit, in under the premise of unlimited spending accumulation will deal with the deficit of useful resources. Third, although the nominal financial deficit rate is relatively low, the existence of hidden deficit and overdraft deficit is not able to explain the financial risk. Because the government spending and financial and out of the standard, China's financial real state of the deficit is difficult to clarify. Although after the debt burden rate is not high, but bond range expansion should is the long-term trend, or will bring certain risks, the risk of financial centers important focused on this. Fourth, this stage financial risk important focus on the premises and center is not, especially place invisible debt risk and the "land finance" risk Eph into underestimated. The local finance risk is formed by a variety of complex factors, like regional economic development imbalance, the tax system and other rail system sex element. Future, transformation and deepen tax system of central and local financial relationship, adjust central and local powers and financial authority division, cut local authority finance to enter into the gap, is the fundamental strategy for master of recessive and overdraft deficits growth. For non tax balance increases the financial risk, the paper presents management and preparedness thoughts, namely, the excessive expansion of structural tax cuts; the issuance of license to local authorities and independent; coupled with continued the eve of the plain near primality public revenue; slowly pushed reconstruction of central and local financial relationship. ...

目录:

内容摘要4-6Abstract6-7第1章 导论11-33    1.1 研究背景、目的、意义11-20        1.1.1 本文的研究背景11-19        1.1.2 本文的研究目的19        1.1.3 本文的研究意义19-20    1.2 国内外研究文献综述20-29        1.2.1 有关税收增长和经济增长关系研究20-23        1.2.2 财政风险研究的逻辑起点:一般理论23-26        1.2.3 与本文有关的财政风险研究26-29    1.3 论文的研究思路及逻辑结构29-31    1.4 本文的创新点及主要研究方法31-33        1.4.1 本文所做的创新努力31        1.4.2 本文的主要研究方法31-33第2章 税收非均衡增长与财政风险33-45    2.1 税收非均衡增长的涵义及界定33-37        2.1.1 税收非均衡增长的风险阐释:税收增长理论的经济学逻辑33-36        2.1.2 本文关于税收非均衡增长的含义及界定36-37    2.2 税收非均衡增长的表现形式37-38        2.2.1 时间序列关系:税收超常规增长37-38        2.2.2 横截面对比:税收非平衡增长38    2.3 关于税收非均衡增长或可引致的财政风险38-45        2.3.1 税收非均衡视角的财政风险界定及其分类38-40        2.3.2 财政风险的引致因素40-42        2.3.3 基于三个不同视角的税收增长与财政风险关系42-45第3章 税收超常规增长中的一般财政风险45-79    3.1 税收超常规增长与经济增长的关系45-62        3.1.1 税制改革以来税收增长变动脉络和趋势45-51        3.1.2 税收增长与财政收入的动态结构关系51-54        3.1.3 税收收入规模测度:基于趋势增长模型预测54-57        3.1.4 税收与GDP相对量衡量:基于宏观税负水平视角分析57-62    3.2 税收超常规增长的财政风险评估:实证研究62-78        3.2.1 财政风险度量标准及其测定62-72        3.2.2 税收高增长与财政赤字水平的适度性72-74        3.2.3 税收增长对财政风险的传导:实证分析74-78    3.3 税收超常规增长引发财政风险的形成机理78-79第4章 税收非均衡增长中的地方财政风险79-109    4.1 地区间税收增长:数据背后的解读79-90        4.1.1 地区间财力增长:数据中的不平衡性80-82        4.1.2 不同区域税收收入增长的特点:东部存量高,西部增长快82-84        4.1.3 地区间税收非平衡增长及财力差异的原因解析84-89        4.1.4 地区经济差距缩小有助于解决地区间财力失衡89-90    4.2 税收非平衡增长中的地方财政风险:一般分析90-91    4.3 税收非均衡增长下地方财政风险:形式及引致效应91-109        4.3.1 收入规模风险:示范效应和棘轮效应91-94        4.3.2 收入结构性风险:预算外资金和"土地财政"风险94-101        4.3.3 地方政府赤字风险:隐性负债和地方政府融资平台101-109第5章 税收非均衡增长中的制度财政风险109-131    5.1 分税制改革下的中央和地方财政分配关系109-112        5.1.1 有关分税制的简要回顾109-110        5.1.2 分税制暴露出的部分问题110-112    5.2 分税制财政分配格局下的中央和地方收支分析112-119        5.2.1 分税制下中央和地方财政实力对比分析112-115        5.2.2 分税制下中央和地方支出义务对比分析115-119    5.3 制度性财政风险的界定及表现形式119-121    5.4 引致效应:地方政府融资平台及"土地财政"风险分析121-131        5.4.1 地方政府融资平台贷款暴露出地方隐性负债风险突出122-128        5.4.2 "土地财政"风险透支地方政府未来收益128-130        5.4.3 制度性财政风险的破解之道130-131第6章 税收非均衡增长中的财政风险:治理与防范131-151    6.1 可适度扩大结构性减税规模131-140        6.1.1 减税的必要性和可行性132-135        6.1.2 减税对财政风险的影响分析135-137        6.1.3 短期:各税种改革推进应体现为民减负的主旨137-139        6.1.4 长期:以税改为基点,扩大制度性减免,形成税制的内在自然减免139-140    6.2 地方政府自主发债有利于缓解地方财政风险140-143        6.2.1 地方政府发行债券的历史回顾和现实选择140-141        6.2.2 允许地方自主发债对缓解地方财政风险利大于弊141-143    6.3 加大民生性公共支出有助于降低未来财政风险143-147        6.3.1 公共支出向民生性公共产品倾斜有助于化解未来财政风险143-146        6.3.2 压缩行政性公共支出具有重要现实意义146-147    6.4 可逐步推进重构中央和地方财政关系147-151第7章 结论性观点151-153参考文献153-161后记161-163

参考文献

  本文关键词：基于税收非均衡增长视角的财政风险问题研究，由笔耕文化传播整理发布。