社会保障支出的城镇居民消费效应分析

发布时间：2018-01-15 16:31

本文关键词：社会保障支出的城镇居民消费效应分析　出处：《财会月刊》2017年30期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：在Ramsey模型的基础上,研究了社会保障支出与城镇居民消费之间的关系,结果表明:首先,社会保障支出对城镇最优消费增长率与城镇居民稳态消费水平具有正向效应,增加社会保障支出能够显著提高城镇居民消费增长率和稳态消费水平。其次,分位数回归显示,社会保障支出对城镇居民消费的影响显著,政府每增加1万元社会保障支出所引起的城镇居民消费增加最低幅度为1.772单位,相应的最高幅度为2.491单位。再次,稳健性检验表明,社会保障支出对城镇居民消费的影响存在区域差异,东部地区的影响效果优于中西部,但是,社会保障支出对消费的促进作用依然明显。最后,结合研究结论给出相应的结论和建议。
[Abstract]:On the basis of Ramsey model, the relationship between social security expenditure and urban residents' consumption is studied. The results show that: first of all. Social security expenditure has a positive effect on the optimal growth rate of urban consumption and the level of steady-state consumption of urban residents. Increasing social security expenditure can significantly improve the growth rate of urban residents' consumption and the level of steady-state consumption. The quantile regression showed that the social security expenditure had a significant impact on urban residents' consumption. The lowest increase of urban residents' consumption caused by the increase of 10,000 yuan social security expenditure was 1.772 units. The corresponding maximum range is 2.491 units. Thirdly, the robustness test shows that there are regional differences in the impact of social security expenditure on the consumption of urban residents, and the effect of the eastern region is better than that of the central and western regions, but. The promotion effect of social security expenditure on consumption is still obvious. Finally, combined with the conclusion of the study, the corresponding conclusions and suggestions are given.
【作者单位】：衡水学院经济管理系;
【基金】：2016年度河北省社会发展研究民生调研专项课题(项目编号:201601241)
【分类号】：F126.1;F812.45
【正文快照】： 王金波一、问题的提出近年来伴随着国际经济的增长乏力,我国调整了经济政策的方向,由原来依靠扩大外需,转向依靠本国内需,通过国内消费来带动经济增长。社会保障作为财政政策的重要组成部分,研究社会保障与消费之间的关系对于扩大本国消费需求,促进我国经济增长具有重要现实意

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