我国财政支出与经济增长关系的实证研究

发布时间：2018-01-15 20:31

本文关键词：我国财政支出与经济增长关系的实证研究　出处：《内蒙古财经大学》2014年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：自1978年改革开放以来，至今已取得了辉煌的成果，GDP总量已经跃居为世界第二，经济增长速度30多年间均值超过11%。但是我们也必须认识到问题的存在，，我们的人均GDP还没有超越中等收入陷阱，如何科学发展，经济增长如何能有好、又快的进行都是我们应当思考的。在理论方面，本文从总供给和总需求两个角度，解释了财政支出是通过增加投资、社会生产率、劳动力资本等要素的方式，进一步影响整个经济增长。在数据方面，本文选取1978-2012年国家财政支出总量的年度数据，整体采用预算内支出（统计年鉴支出），由于政府收支分类改革于2007年正式实行，新的政府预算和结算均按照改革后的科目统计，以前统计年鉴的大项目会拆分成若干小项，会造成计算范围的误差，因此本文中对2007年改革后有变化的大项数据按照新规定进行了分类，但是偏差存在仍不可避免。在实证方法上本文以阿罗在1990提出的理论为基础，在研究财政支出规模和经济增长的关系时，第一步，根据是否有相同趋势进行单整检验。第二步，进行Johansen协整检验。第三步，找出最优滞后阶数，建立脉冲向量模型，得出VAR方程，检验两变量间的脉冲影响。最后，采用格兰杰因果检验，检测两变量存在的因果关系。在研究财政支出结构和经济增长的关系时，分别选取我国第一产业增加值、第二产业增加值、第三产业增加作为因变量，与之相关的财政支出项为自变量，进行脉冲向量分析，分别测度财政支出结构对我国经济增长的作用以及时滞效应。最终我们得到的结论为：发现支出规模和经济增长两者之间存在有单向格兰杰因果关系，即经济增长是财政支出总量上升的格兰杰原因，这符合我国财政支出总量攀升的现状，而且10年内GDP对财政支出的贡献值达到80%。但是财政支出总量的作用并非十分显著。另外，在财政支出结构方面，我们发现第一产业增加值与农业支出无因果关系，可能的原因是支农支出占GDP比重过小。经济建设支出对第二产业的正效应远高于第三产业，滞后期均为2-3年。科教文卫支出对第二、第三产业的效用均为正，但是对第三产业的滞后期远远小于第二产业，可能的原因是第二产业对于劳动力资本的培养要求更高。最后行政管理支出仅在短期内更有利于第三产业发展。
[Abstract]:Since 1978, since the reform and opening up, has made brilliant achievements since the total GDP has leapt to the second place in the world. The average economic growth rate in more than 30 years is more than 11. But we must also recognize the existence of the problem, our per capita GDP has not exceeded the middle-income trap, how to develop scientifically. We should think about how economic growth can be good and fast. In theory, this paper explains that fiscal expenditure is by increasing investment, social productivity, labor capital and other factors from the point of view of total supply and total demand. Further affect the overall economic growth. In terms of data, this paper selects the annual data of the total national fiscal expenditure from 1978 to 2012, and uses the budget expenditure (Statistical Yearbook expenditure) as a whole. As the reform of government revenue and expenditure classification was formally carried out in 2007, the new government budget and settlement are based on the subject statistics after the reform, and the major items of the former statistical yearbook will be divided into a number of sub-items. This paper classifies the large term data changed after the 2007 reform according to the new regulations, but the deviation is still inevitable. In the empirical method, based on Arrow's theory in 1990, the first step, according to whether there is the same trend, is to test the relationship between the scale of fiscal expenditure and economic growth. The second step is to study the relationship between the scale of fiscal expenditure and economic growth. The third step is to find out the optimal delay order, to establish the pulse vector model, to obtain the VAR equation, to test the pulse effect between the two variables. Finally, Granger causality test is used. In the study of the relationship between the structure of financial expenditure and economic growth, we select the value added of the primary industry, the added value of the secondary industry and the increase of the tertiary industry as dependent variables. The related fiscal expenditure items are independent variables. The impulse vector analysis is carried out to measure the effect of fiscal expenditure structure on China's economic growth and the time-delay effect. Finally, we conclude that there is a one-way Granger causality between the scale of expenditure and economic growth, that is, economic growth is the Granger cause of the total increase of fiscal expenditure. This is in line with the current situation that the total amount of fiscal expenditure in China is rising, and the contribution of GDP to fiscal expenditure is 80% in 10 years. But the effect of total fiscal expenditure is not very significant. In terms of fiscal expenditure structure, we find that there is no causal relationship between the value added of primary industry and agricultural expenditure. The possible reason is that the proportion of agricultural expenditure in GDP is too small. The positive effect of economic construction expenditure on the secondary industry is much higher than that of the tertiary industry, the lag period is 2-3 years, and the expenditure of science, education, culture and health is the second. The utility of the tertiary industry is positive, but the lag of the tertiary industry is much smaller than that of the secondary industry. The possible reason is that the secondary industry requires higher training of labor capital. Finally, administrative expenditure is more favorable to the development of the tertiary industry only in the short term.
【学位授予单位】：内蒙古财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F812.45;F124.1;F224

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