我国地方政府财政支出的通货膨胀效应研究

发布时间：2018-01-18 16:16

本文关键词：我国地方政府财政支出的通货膨胀效应研究　出处：《厦门大学》2014年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：通货膨胀对我国经济的健康发展以及人民的生活有着非常重要的作用,其形成机理和预防对策一直是学术界研究的重点课题。2008年金融危机的爆发,不仅美国等国家先后启动了几轮量化宽松政策,我国政府也实施了宽松的货币与财政政策。2009年开始,我国经济出现好转,国内生产总值比上年增长8.7%。但同时,居民消费指数也从2009年—2011年出现了连续上涨,产生了新一轮通货膨胀的趋势。同时,近年来我国地方政府财政支出呈现出不断膨胀的趋势,地方政府支出占本地经济的份额在过去十几年中显著上升了。为了研究这种地方政府支出的膨胀趋势是否具有引发通货膨胀的潜在力量,本文结合我国的实际情况,从货币因素、投资因素等角度分析了地方政府财政支出对通货膨胀影响的渠道。然后,本文通过建立面板数据向量自回归模型(PVAR),利用GMM回归结果、脉冲响应函数和方差分解对地方政府财政支出扩张与通货膨胀的关系进行研究。研究的结果表明,CPI对地方政府财政支出增长率滞后一期的回归系数为正,地方政府的财政支出确实会对居民消费价格指数造成影响。从CPI对地方政府财政支出增长率冲击的反应可以看出,地方政府财政支出增长率一个单位标准差大小的正向冲击对CPI产生正向的影响,随后开始下降。说明地方政府支出对通货膨胀的确存在正向的推动作用,然而这种影响并不稳定。从方差分解结果可以看出,地方政府公共支出增长率和全社会固定资产投资增长率都是CPI的影响因素,但二者对CPI变动的解释力度都比较小。从研究结论来看,地方政府财政支出的扩张的确会带来通货膨胀隐患。为了保证经济的平稳运行和物价水平的稳定,本文分别从整个国家的层面和地方政府的层面提出了相关的政策建议。
[Abstract]:Inflation plays a very important role in the healthy development of our economy and people's life. Its formation mechanism and preventive measures have been the focus of academic research. In 2008, the financial crisis broke out. Not only the United States and other countries have launched several rounds of quantitative easing policy, but our government has also implemented loose monetary and fiscal policies. Since 2009, China's economy has improved. Gross domestic product (GDP) was up 8.7 percent over the previous year. But at the same time, the consumer consumption index rose continuously from 2009 to 2011, resulting in a new round of inflation. At the same time, in recent years, local government fiscal expenditure in China has shown a trend of continuous expansion. The share of local government spending in the local economy has risen significantly over the past decade. Based on the actual situation of our country, this paper analyzes the influence of local government fiscal expenditure on inflation from the point of view of monetary factors, investment factors and so on. Then. In this paper, the panel data vector autoregressive model is established and the GMM regression results are used. The impulse response function and variance decomposition are used to study the relationship between the expansion of local government fiscal expenditure and inflation. The results show that the regression coefficient of CPI for the lag period of local government fiscal expenditure growth rate is positive. Local government fiscal expenditure does have an impact on the consumer price index. It can be seen from the response of CPI to the impact of local government expenditure growth rate. The positive impact of a unit standard deviation on the growth rate of local government fiscal expenditure has a positive impact on CPI and then begins to decline. It shows that local government expenditure does have a positive impact on inflation. However, this effect is not stable. From the variance decomposition results, it can be seen that the growth rate of public expenditure of local government and the growth rate of fixed asset investment of the whole society are the influencing factors of CPI. But both of them explain the change of CPI relatively little. From the conclusion of the study, the expansion of local government fiscal expenditure will indeed bring inflation risks. In order to ensure the smooth operation of the economy and the stability of the price level. This paper puts forward the relevant policy suggestions from the whole national level and the local government level.
【学位授予单位】：厦门大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F822.5;F812.45

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