基于系统动力学的地方政府债务管理研究

发布时间：2018-01-20 01:13

本文关键词： 债务管理系统动力学数值模拟敏感性分析　出处：《贵州财经大学》2017年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：2010年以来,随着地方政府债务规模的高速增长,地方政府债务率和逾期债务率也水涨船高。为了解决地方政府债务高速增长的问题,2015年新预算法出台,规定了地方政府不能从融资平台举借债务,只能通过发行债券进行融资,且中央政府实行不救助原则。本文在此背景下,以地方政府债务管理为出发点,建立债务管理系统动力学模型研究了地方政府债务融资问题。主要研究成果和结论如下:第一、针对现有债务预测模型的局限性,建立了债务管理系统的动态预测模型。在政府债务管理的过程中,以促进政府的健康和可持续发展为目标,通过债务管理系统的抽象和假设,建立了系统动力学方程,对政府债务的规模、债务率、债券融资进行预测。通过建立一个系统动力学模型,对政府债务管理进行模拟,对政府未来的债务规模、债务率和债务融资进行预测,将政府债务管理中存在的问题以债务预测的形式呈现出来。借助于计算机的运算能力,在任何一个时间点上的任何一个指标的数值都能被模拟出来,并且可以任意改变初值和参数来动态地监控地方政府债务系统的运行情况。第二、以贵州省为例,对债务管理系统动态预测模型进行了稳健性检验,同时进行敏感性分析,通过分析得出结论:GDP增长率和财政收入增长率均对债务率有着负向的影响且较为敏感,长期债券占比和财政支出增长率对债务率有着正向的影响但并不敏感。因此,本文的政策含义是,为了防范债务风险,首要的措施是大力发展经济,获取更多财政收入。其次的措施是适度减少财政支出,发行较多比例的短期债券等。创新之处与应用价值:以往的地方政府债务管理研究往往运用定性的、线性的或者静态的方法来研究,使用系统动力学的方法,运用定量的,非线性的和动态的方法来研究地方政府债务管理,可能从方法层面丰富了已有文献。此外,此前的研究往往借助于已有的模型和对已有模型的修改来研究债务管理问题,因此创建一个前所未有的债务管理系统动力学模型也是比较大的创新。地方政府不仅可以通过债务管理系统动力学模型来预测地方政府债务和债务率的变化趋势,监控债务率的数值使之在可以接受的范围内,如果模型预测的债务率过高,政府可能需要考虑采取一些措施来防范债务危机。而且可以通过改变一些参数的数值,得到不同的数值模拟结果,来考察这些参数的改变对地方政府债务率的影响,从而选择调控哪些变量来调控债务率,因此债务管理系统动力学模型有着一定的应用价值。
[Abstract]:Since 2010, with the rapid growth of local government debt, the rate of local government debt and overdue debt is also rising. In order to solve the problem of rapid growth of local government debt. In 2015, the new budget law was issued, which stipulates that local government can not borrow debt from financing platform, only by issuing bonds to finance, and the central government implements the principle of no bailout. Based on the local government debt management, the dynamic model of debt management system is established to study the financing of local government debt. The main research results and conclusions are as follows: first. In view of the limitation of the existing debt forecasting model, the dynamic forecasting model of debt management system is established. In the process of government debt management, the goal is to promote the healthy and sustainable development of the government. Through the abstraction and hypothesis of debt management system, the system dynamics equation is established, and the scale of government debt, debt ratio and bond financing are forecasted, and a system dynamics model is established. The paper simulates the government debt management and forecasts the future debt size, debt ratio and debt financing of the government. The problems in government debt management are presented in the form of debt forecasting. With the help of computer computing power, the value of any index at any point in time can be simulated. And can arbitrarily change the initial values and parameters to dynamically monitor the operation of the local government debt system. Secondly, taking Guizhou province as an example, the dynamic prediction model of debt management system is tested for robustness. At the same time, through the sensitivity analysis, it is concluded that both the growth rate of GDP and the growth rate of fiscal revenue have a negative impact on the debt rate and are more sensitive. The ratio of long-term bonds and the growth rate of fiscal expenditure have a positive effect on the debt rate, but they are not sensitive. Therefore, the policy implication of this paper is that in order to prevent debt risk, the most important measure is to develop the economy vigorously. The second measure is to reduce fiscal expenditure moderately, issue a large proportion of short-term bonds and so on. Innovation and application value: the past local government debt management studies often use qualitative. Linear or static methods are used, systems dynamics are used, quantitative, nonlinear and dynamic methods are used to study local government debt management. In addition, previous studies often use existing models and modification of existing models to study debt management problems. Therefore, it is a great innovation to create an unprecedented dynamic model of debt management system. Local government can not only predict the changing trend of local government debt and debt ratio through the dynamic model of debt management system. . Monitor the value of the debt rate so that it is within an acceptable range if the model predicts an excessive debt rate. Governments may need to consider measures to prevent debt crises, and different numerical simulations can be obtained by changing the values of some parameters. In order to study the influence of these parameters on local government debt rate and choose which variables to control debt rate, the dynamic model of debt management system has certain application value.
【学位授予单位】：贵州财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F812.5

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