现阶段中国资本账户开放进程研究

发布时间：2018-02-09 15:49

本文关键词： 资本账户开放资本流动策略与步骤　出处：《财政部财政科学研究所》2014年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：加入世界贸易组织以后,我国经常账户已按照承诺对外放开,而资本账户开放虽然屡被提及,但开放的过程一直较为曲折。1997年的亚洲金融危机和2008年的全球金融危机的负面影响表明资本流动的负面冲击可能会损害我国宏观经济与金融市场的稳定,而相对封闭的资本环境让我国能够在一定程度上抵御外部性风险。然而,在经济全球化的大背景下,国际经济互动频率明显增强,中国面临的跨境流动的资本规模也显著扩大,资本管制的成本相应增大,而有效性却在持续降低。目前中国已成为全球第二大经济体,资本账户的管制已成为制约中国全面融入全球经济金融体系的短板,人民币不可兑换会成为市场有效配置资源的障碍,资本账户开放是中国不可避免的客观要求。但资本账户开放需要什么条件,开放到什么程度,需要哪些配套措施,是否能有一个明确的时间表是富有争议的,也是需要深入研究的。本文首先归纳了国际上对于资本账户及其开放的内涵,指出经典模型“三元悖论”在我国应用的局限性,并从理论上探讨了资本账户开放的利弊,分析了资本账户开放的一般性条件。同时,总结了其他国家资本账户开放的经验教训,对我国资本账户开放的进程及步骤具有一定借鉴意义。在此基础上,本文回顾了我国资本账户开放的历程和政策变迁,介绍了国内外研究者对我国资本账户开放程度的测定结果,并分析了我国资本项目管制的现状和特征。对于下一阶段资本账户开放进程的安排,有学者认为开放条件基本成熟,并提出了加速推进、协调开放的整体策略与步骤。但具体观察我国现阶段的宏观经济情况、企业景气度指标,并考察国内利率和汇率的形成机制,本文认为：为了能在长期更好地获得开放带来的正收益,现阶段在资本账户开放前还是应先着力推进利率、汇率市场化,这将有效地避免贸然开放后短期资本流动对我国金融市场的冲击；在资本开放前应为民营资本进入金融领域创造更宽松的条件,为本土金融机构的自我完善赢得更多的时间；整个开放过程需要配合审慎的宏观监管、高效的信息监督手段和密切的国际合作机制。
[Abstract]:After joining the World Trade Organization, China's current account has been liberalized in accordance with its commitments, while the opening of the capital account has been repeatedly mentioned. The negative impact of the Asian financial crisis in 1997 and the global financial crisis in 2008 shows that the negative impact of capital flows may undermine the stability of our macroeconomic and financial markets. However, in the context of economic globalization, the frequency of international economic interaction has increased significantly, and the scale of capital flowing across borders has also been significantly expanded. The cost of capital control increases accordingly, while the effectiveness continues to decrease. At present, China has become the world's second largest economy, and capital account controls have become a constraint on China's full integration into the global economic and financial system. The non-convertibility of the renminbi will become an obstacle to the efficient allocation of resources by the market. The opening of the capital account is an inevitable objective requirement in China. However, it is controversial as to what conditions are required for the opening of the capital account, to what extent, to what extent, what supporting measures are needed, and whether there can be a clear timetable. It also needs further study. This paper first sums up the international connotation of capital account and its opening, points out the limitations of the application of the classical model "ternary paradox" in our country, and probes into the advantages and disadvantages of capital account opening theoretically. This paper analyzes the general conditions of capital account opening, and summarizes the experience and lessons of other countries' capital account opening, which can be used for reference in the process and steps of capital account opening in China. This paper reviews the course and policy changes of capital account opening in China, introduces the results of domestic and foreign researchers' determination of capital account opening degree in China, and analyzes the present situation and characteristics of capital account control in China. For the arrangement of the next stage of the capital account opening process, some scholars think that the opening conditions are basically mature, and put forward the overall strategy and steps to accelerate and coordinate the opening up. In order to gain a better long-term positive return from opening up, we should push forward interest rate and exchange rate marketization before the opening of capital account at this stage, and examine the formation mechanism of domestic interest rate and exchange rate. This will effectively avoid the impact of short-term capital flow on China's financial market after the rash opening up, create more relaxed conditions for private capital to enter the financial field before capital opening, and gain more time for the self-improvement of local financial institutions. The whole process of opening up should be accompanied by prudent macro-supervision, efficient information supervision and close international cooperation mechanism.
【学位授予单位】：财政部财政科学研究所
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F812;F832

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