云南省置换债券对债务流动性风险影响研究

发布时间：2018-02-09 21:02

本文关键词： 地方政府债务流动性风险置换债券 CCA　出处：《云南财经大学》2017年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：2008年为了应对全球金融危机对我国经济的冲击,国家实施了四万亿经济刺激计划,这虽然缓解了经济的下滑,但政府债务规模也随之剧增。“十三五”时期,地方政府不仅面临经济“三期叠加”的常态,又要应对政府债务的集中兑付,因此,地方债务风险管理面临严峻挑战。虽然我国债务规模不断扩张,但众多研究表明:债务规模总体可控,主要存在流动性风险,即到期债务本息面临无法偿还的风险。随着债务流动性风险的日益明显,债务存在的期限错配,短期违约既成事实,于此,国家提出置换债券计划,实施债务重组。置换债券的发行既明确了债务规模,又便于替换政府存量债务实现再融资。2015年及2016年国家尽管分别下达了3.2万亿和6万亿的置换债券计划用于偿还到期债务,但流动性风险仍然存在。所以,置换债券对债务流动性风险的研究具有必要性。本文从理论和实证分析对以云南省置换债券对债务流动性风险的影响进行研究。首先,由于以债务流动性风险为研究对象,因此文献的梳理以地方政府债务的发展态势、债务规模、偿还能力、化解措施为主;进而对相关概念界定,并从财政分权理论、公共产品理论、委托代理理论分析置换债券的实施即公债发行的理论依据。其次,根据置换债券对地方债务的影响机制进行探究,说明置换债券对债务流动性风险的作用机理和可能性延展,维持经济发展和提升社会融资成本等方面探究;同时,对云南省的债务进行总体规模和结构分析。再次,利用未定权益分析方法对债务置换之后的云南省地方债务流动性风险进行实证研究,依据云南省审计厅公布的债务数据和财政厅发行的置换债券,通过对其未来风险进行分析,估测到地方政府在2017年之后的偿债压力增大,仅利用当前的可偿债资金偿还债务较为困难,因此地方债务的流动性风险难以避免。最后,根据实证分析的结果,依照债务规模、偿债资金、债券市场等方面提出对应的政策建议:注重经济稳定增长,推出相应额度的债务置换计划,推进债券市场高效发展,拓宽债务偿债资金来源,提高债券资金使用效率,强化债务风险预警和问责机制。
[Abstract]:In 2008, in order to cope with the impact of the global financial crisis on China's economy, the country implemented a 4 tillion economic stimulus plan, which alleviated the economic downturn, but the scale of government debt also increased sharply. During the 13th Five-Year Plan period, The local government not only faces the normal state of "three phases superposition" of economy, but also has to deal with the centralized payment of government debt. Therefore, local debt risk management faces severe challenge. However, many studies have shown that the debt scale is generally controllable, and there are mainly liquidity risks, that is, the principal and interest risk of maturing debt is facing the risk of non-repayment. As the liquidity risk of debt becomes more and more obvious, the maturity mismatch of debt exists. Short-term default is a fait accompli, so the state has put forward a plan to replace bonds and carry out debt restructuring. The issuance of replacement bonds not only defines the size of the debt, In 2015 and 2016, even though 3.2 tillion and 6 tillion replacement bonds were issued to repay maturing debt, liquidity risks remained. It is necessary to study the liquidity risk of debt by replacement bonds. This paper studies the effect of Yunnan replacement bonds on debt liquidity risk from theoretical and empirical analysis. Firstly, because of the debt liquidity risk as the research object, Therefore, the literature combs the development situation of local government debt, debt scale, repayment ability, resolution measures, and then defines the relevant concepts, and from the fiscal decentralization theory, public goods theory, The principal-agent theory analyzes the theoretical basis for the issuance of bonds. Secondly, according to the influence mechanism of the replacement bonds on the local debt, the paper explains the mechanism and possibility of the replacement bonds on the liquidity risk of debt. To maintain economic development and raise social financing costs; at the same time, to analyze the overall size and structure of the debt in Yunnan Province. Again, Based on the debt data published by Yunnan Audit Office and the replacement bonds issued by the Department of Finance of Yunnan Province, the paper makes an empirical study on the liquidity risk of local debt in Yunnan Province after debt replacement by using the method of undetermined equity analysis. It is estimated that local governments are under increased debt servicing pressure after 2017, and that it is more difficult to repay their debts only with current repayable funds, thus the liquidity risk of local debt is unavoidable. Finally, according to the results of empirical analysis, based on the size of the debt, Policy suggestions on debt servicing funds and bond markets are put forward: pay attention to steady economic growth, introduce a corresponding quota debt replacement plan, promote the efficient development of the bond market, and broaden the sources of debt repayment funds. Improve the efficiency of the use of bond funds, strengthen debt risk warning and accountability mechanism.
【学位授予单位】：云南财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F812.5

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