基于组合预测模型的河北省公共财政支出预算编制方法研究

发布时间：2018-02-14 10:46

本文关键词： 组合预测预算编制公共财政　出处：《石家庄铁道大学》2015年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：在我国,公共预算作为公共财政的管理工具,在政府资源分配中起到了关键作用,由于公共预算的范围限定了政府活动的范围,从而成为政治决策的重要工具。政府预算编制的程序和方法,决定了公共政策的科学透明和公开公正,也体现了政治文明和政治民主的程度。目前,省及省以下政府预算编制过程中仍然存在诸多问题。本文的基本观点是如果政府预算编制的程序和方法得当,尤其是支出预算管理制度的缺陷得到弥补,政府借由预算的施政效能将得到提高,民众从政府服务中也可以享受到更高的福利水平。河北省公共财政支出预算方法研究是当前河北省财政改革的重要方向。作为国家财政支出的一部分,河北省公共财政支出还是省政府行使其财政职能的重要保障。因此,建立科学合理的公共财政支出预算编制方法是一项重要的工作。由于地方财政支出受到诸多因素的影响,而现有的预测方法还不够科学完善,因此,研究其预算编制方法具有重要意义。本文在分析目前河北省公共财政支出预算编制的现状的基础上,重点对预算编制方法进行研究,采用时间序列模型、回归预测和GM(1,1)三种预测模型组合预测河北省公共财政支出,为河北省公共财政支出预算编制方法的改进提供向导。本文第一部分为第一章绪论,介绍研究背景、目的及意义和近年来的国内外研究现状;第二部分第二章介绍相关概念和当前国内外常用的预算编制方法;第三部分第三章从编制时间、编制内容和编制方法等方面分析河北省预算编制现状;第四部分为第四和第五章,主要建立组合预测模型并应用于河北省公共财政支出的预算编制;第五部分为第六和第七章,为进一步提高河北省公共财政支出预算编制提出对策建议,并对今后的研究提出展望。
[Abstract]:In our country, as a management tool of public finance, public budget plays a key role in the allocation of government resources, because the scope of public budget limits the scope of government activities. Thus becoming an important tool for political decision-making. The procedures and methods of government budgeting determine the scientific, transparent, open and impartial nature of public policy, and also reflect the degree of political civilization and political democracy. There are still many problems in the budgeting process of provincial and sub-provincial governments. The basic viewpoint of this paper is that if the procedures and methods of government budgeting are proper, especially the deficiencies of the expenditure budget management system can be remedied. The effectiveness of the government's budget will be enhanced. The public can also enjoy a higher level of welfare from government services. The research on the budget method of public expenditure in Hebei Province is an important direction of the current fiscal reform in Hebei Province. As part of the national financial expenditure, Public expenditure in Hebei Province is also an important guarantee for the provincial government to exercise its financial functions. Therefore, it is an important task to establish a scientific and reasonable budgeting method for public financial expenditure. However, the existing forecasting methods are not scientific and perfect, so it is of great significance to study the budgeting methods. Based on the analysis of the current situation of the budgeting of public expenditure in Hebei Province, this paper focuses on the study of the budgeting methods. Three forecasting models, time series model, regression model and GM1 / 1) are used to forecast the public expenditure of Hebei Province, which provides a guide for the improvement of the budgeting method of the public expenditure of Hebei Province. The first part of this paper is the introduction of the first chapter. This paper introduces the background, purpose and significance of the research and the current research situation at home and abroad in recent years. The second chapter introduces the related concepts and the current budgeting methods commonly used at home and abroad. This paper analyzes the present situation of budget compilation in Hebei Province from the aspects of content and method of compilation, the 4th part is 4th and 5th chapters, mainly establishes the combination forecast model and applies to the budget preparation of Hebei Province's public finance expenditure, 5th part is the sixth and 7th chapters. In order to further improve the budget of public expenditure in Hebei Province, the countermeasures and suggestions are put forward, and the prospect of future research is put forward.
【学位授予单位】：石家庄铁道大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：F812.3;F812.45

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