中国外债风险管理问题的研究

发布时间：2018-02-19 22:32

本文关键词： 外债风险风险评价指标体系因子分析　出处：《南京理工大学》2014年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：改革开放对我国的经济发展产生了巨大影响,使我国的经济实力和综合国力得到稳步提升。这其中,外债作为弥补资金短缺、平衡国际收支的重要途径对我国的经济发展起到了积极作用,外债规模也随之快速增长。但是,外债规模的迅速扩大以及外债结构方面暴露的种种问题对我国的金融安全形成了一定的威胁。截止到2012年年末,我国短期外债占外债余额的比重已经高达73.4%,大大高于国际公认的警戒线,增大了我国的偿债风险。2009年欧债危机对世界经济产生了又一次巨大冲击,这更加引起各国的专家学者对中国外债风险状况的高度关注。为了能够充分发挥外债对我国经济发展的积极作用,减少外债产生的消极效应,我们有必要对外债风险问题进行深入研究,加强对外债规模的管理,合理安排外债结构,从而防范和控制外债风险,保障国家金融安全。本文对中国外债风险管理问题的研究从外债的基础概念出发,在对我国外债规模风险和结构风险状况分析的基础上,借鉴国内外已有的研究成果,遵循外债风险评价指标体系构建的原则,根据外债风险的表现形式,从外债风险的规模、结构及动态三个维度构建了我国外债风险评价指标体系。通过运用客观赋权法中的因子分析方法计算得出我国外债风险评价指标的权重,并据此得到我国外债风险水平的评价结果。分析结果显示,至2012年末我国的外债整体风险水平较低,外债风险总体可控,不存在偿债风险。从微观层面来看,中国目前的外债规模是适度的、可持续的。但是,外债结构性风险和动态风险较高,需要引起我国外债监管部门的重视。
[Abstract]:The reform and opening up has had a great impact on the economic development of our country, which has steadily increased our economic strength and overall national strength. Among these, foreign debt is used to make up for the shortage of funds. The important way to balance the balance of payments has played a positive role in China's economic development, and the scale of foreign debt has also increased rapidly. The rapid expansion of the scale of foreign debt and the problems exposed in the structure of foreign debt pose a certain threat to the financial security of our country. As of the end of 2012, The proportion of China's short-term foreign debt to the foreign debt balance has reached 73.4 percent, which is much higher than the internationally recognized warning line, which has increased the debt repayment risk of our country. In 2009, the European debt crisis had another huge impact on the world economy. This has aroused the great concern of experts and scholars from all over the world about China's foreign debt risk situation. In order to give full play to the positive role of foreign debt in China's economic development and reduce the negative effects of foreign debt, It is necessary for us to study the problem of foreign debt risk in depth, strengthen the management of the scale of foreign debt, arrange the structure of foreign debt rationally, so as to prevent and control the risk of foreign debt and ensure the national financial security. Based on the basic concept of foreign debt and the analysis of the risk of scale and structure of foreign debt in China, this paper draws lessons from the existing research results at home and abroad. Following the principle of establishing an index system for foreign debt risk assessment, according to the manifestation of foreign debt risk, from the scale of external debt risk, The index system of external debt risk evaluation is constructed from three dimensions of structure and dynamic, and the weight of foreign debt risk evaluation index is calculated by using the factor analysis method of objective weighting method. The results show that by end of 2012, the overall risk level of China's foreign debt is relatively low, the overall foreign debt risk is controllable, and there is no debt repayment risk. The scale of China's foreign debt is moderate and sustainable. However, the structural risk and dynamic risk of foreign debt are relatively high, which should attract the attention of China's foreign debt supervision department.
【学位授予单位】：南京理工大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F812.5

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