我国财政政策对产业结构优化的时变效应

发布时间：2018-02-21 17:25

本文关键词： 时变参数财政政策产业结构优化　出处：《数量经济技术经济研究》2017年11期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：研究目标:财政政策对产业结构优化的时变性影响。研究方法:构建带有随机波动率的时变参数因子扩展向量自回归模型,进而通过三维脉冲响应展开时变性分析。研究发现:财政政策对产业结构优化确实产生了时变效应,在经济衰退时期,应该增加财政支出、提高投资性支出占比,结合小幅度减税、提高营业税和消费税占比;在经济平稳时期,应该减少税收、提高营业税占比、降低增值税占比,结合小幅度增加财政支出、提高投资性支出占比、降低一般公共服务支出占比;在经济高涨时期,应该增加财政支出、提高科技支出和投资性支出占比,结合小幅度减税、提高所得税占比、降低营业税占比。研究创新:应用时变参数计量模型研究了财政政策对产业结构优化的时变效应。研究价值:有助于重新认识财政政策与产业结构优化的关系。
[Abstract]:Objectives: the effects of fiscal policy on industrial structure optimization of degeneration. Methods: to construct a stochastic volatility factor extended time-varying parameter vector autoregressive model, and then through the 3D impulse response analysis. The study found out when degeneration: fiscal policy on industrial structure optimization have time-varying effect during the recession we should increase the fiscal expenditure, increase investment spending accounted for, with small tax cuts, the increase in the sales tax and consumption tax accounted for in the economy; stable period, should reduce the tax, sales tax increase the proportion of lower value-added tax accounting, combined with a small increase in fiscal expenditure, increase investment spending accounted for a decrease in general public service expenditures accounted for; in the economic boom, should increase the fiscal expenditure, improve technology spending and investment expenditures accounted for, with small tax cuts, raising the income tax accounting, reduce the tax accounting Research and Innovation: applying time-varying parameter measurement model to study the time effect of fiscal policy on industrial structure optimization. Research value: it helps to re understand the relationship between fiscal policy and industrial structure optimization.

【作者单位】：广东财经大学;国家海洋局;
【基金】：国家社科基金重大项目“提高发展平衡性、包容性和可持续动力机制研究”(项目批准号:15ZDC012)的资助
【分类号】：F121.3;F812.0

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