我国出口退税影响出口增长的动态效应及其特征——基于1985～2013年数据的实证分析

发布时间：2018-03-01 07:37

本文关键词： 出口退税出口增长动态特征状态空间可变参数模型 VAR模型　出处：《经济问题探索》2015年11期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：本文利用我国1985~2013年的相关数据,实证分析了出口退税影响出口增长的动态效应及其特征。引入时间虚拟变量的多元回归结果显示,在平均退税率大幅上调、大幅下调和基本稳定三个不同时期,出口对出口退税的弹性系数依次递减。状态空间可变参数模型估计结果表明,出口对出口退税的弹性系数随着时间的变化而改变,并呈现出趋于稳定的态势。通过基于VAR模型的脉冲响应与方差分解分析,发现出口退税对出口增长既有短期效应也有长期影响,但短期作用明显更强;在长期中,外部需求对出口增长的贡献大于出口退税。实证结果说明:出口退税适宜作为调节出口总量的短期政策,尤其是在出口下行期,提高退税率可有效激励出口;但是,要促进出口的长期增长,最为关键的还是扩大外部需求。
[Abstract]:This paper uses the relevant data in 1985~2013 of China, an empirical analysis of the dynamic effect and the characteristics of the export tax rebate effect of export growth. The introduction of time dummy variable multiple regression results show that the average tax rebate rate rise sharply, down sharply in different periods of three and basically stable, the coefficient of elasticity of exports to the export tax rebate in the order of decreasing state space variable. The parameters of the model estimation results show that the coefficient of elasticity of export tax rebates for exporters change over time, and showed a stable trend. The impulse response and variance decomposition analysis based on VAR model, we found out the export tax rebate also has a long-term impact on export growth not only have short-term effects, but the short-term effect was stronger in the long term; in the external demand for export growth than export tax rebates. The empirical results show that: the export tax rebate policy adjustment period for short of total exports, Especially in the downside period of export, the increase of the tax rebate rate can effectively encourage export; however, to promote the long-term growth of exports, the most important thing is to expand external demand.

【作者单位】：上海行政学院;中国社会科学院;
【基金】：国家社会科学基金青年项目“完善结构性减税政策与促进税收负担合理化问题研究”(编号:12CJY098),项目负责人:潘文轩
【分类号】：F752.62;F812.42

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