地区财政预决算偏差与政府效率、经济增长的关系研究

发布时间：2018-03-03 00:18

本文选题：地区经济增长　切入点：政府效率　出处：《财经论丛》2015年11期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：为研究地区经济增长、地方政府效率等环境变量对财政预决算偏差的影响,本文构建三个理论假设并通过面板数据协整模型、误差修正模型、脉冲响应函数及面板计量模型等方法对其进行检验,结果符合预期。研究表明:上述各要素之间存在长期和短期稳定关系;地区经济增长对预决算偏差的影响最为显著,呈现正向扩大效应;地方政府效率与预决算偏差的长期关系更加稳定,且对预决算偏差具负向冲击力;财政预决算偏差中,支出偏离度与收入偏离度的关系微弱,弹性系数较低。在经济新常态背景下,为缩小预决算偏差,我国应优化地方政府绩效评价体系,降低GDP指标权重,重视提升地方政府效率,推进建设规范有序的现代财政治理机制。
[Abstract]:In order to study the influence of environmental variables such as regional economic growth and local government efficiency on the deviation of fiscal budget, this paper constructs three theoretical assumptions and uses panel data cointegration model, error correction model, etc. The results of impulse response function and panel metrology model are in line with expectations. The results show that there is a long-term and short-term stable relationship between the above factors, and the regional economic growth has the most significant effect on the deviation of the forecast and final account. The long-term relationship between local government efficiency and budget deviation is more stable, and it has negative impact on budget deviation. In fiscal budget deviation, the relationship between expenditure deviation and income deviation is weak. Under the background of the new normal state of economy, in order to reduce the deviation of budget and final accounts, our country should optimize the performance evaluation system of local government, reduce the weight of GDP index, and attach importance to improving the efficiency of local government. To promote the construction of a standardized and orderly modern financial governance mechanism.
【作者单位】：北京师范大学政府管理学院;
【基金】：北京市支持中央在京高校共建项目“公共管理重点学科建设”阶段性研究成果
【分类号】：F812.3;F124

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