财政新常态下地方政府债务流动性风险研究:存量债务置换之后

发布时间：2018-03-04 22:15

本文选题：地方政府债务　切入点：流动性风险　出处：《经济管理》2015年11期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：我国地方政府债务风险尤其是流动性风险问题日益凸显,期限错配使其短期违约几乎不可避免,而这基本已经成为相关研究的共识。虽然当前的债务置换在很大程度上缓解了地方政府的偿债压力,但由于置换的全部是2015年到期的债务,因此,之后年份的流动性风险是否仍然存在,地方政府未来或长期的偿债压力有多大,在中国经济进入"新常态",地方政府的财政运行也进入到收入增速放缓、收支矛盾持续加大的"新常态"背景下,是一个值得研究的问题。本文利用未定权益分析方法对债务置换之后的地方债务流动性风险进行了研究。相对于同类文献,在两个方面进行了改进和完善:一是对财政收入中的可偿债部分进行了具体的分析,很大程度上避免了比例设定偏离实际或过大的问题;二是明确引入地方政府性基金收入这一重要的偿债来源,并估算了包括公共财政和政府性基金在内的综合可偿债财力。估测结果显示,地方政府的偿债压力在2016年及以后仍然很大,尤其是在2018年之后,随着部分置换债务的到期,偿债压力会进一步加大,仅仅利用基于公共财政收入和政府性基金收入的可偿债财力来偿还到期债务,地方政府债务流动性危机或将难以避免。因此,要采取如下措施及时化解债务风险,同时兼顾稳定经济增长:适时再次推出相应额度的债务置换;进一步强化实施定向宽松或结构性货币政策;在公共服务和基础设施领域推进政府与社会资本合作模式;允许地方政府减持或变现其拥有的部分国有企业国有资产;强化地方政府债务违约风险的预警和问责机制。
[Abstract]:The risk of local government debt, especially the liquidity risk, is becoming more and more serious, and the short-term default is almost inevitable due to the mismatch of the term. Although the current debt swap has largely alleviated the debt servicing pressure of local governments, since the swap is all due on 2015, so, Will liquidity risks remain in the years to come, and how much local governments will be under pressure to repay debt in the future or in the long run. As China's economy enters a "new normal", local governments' fiscal operations are also slowing down in revenue growth. Under the background of "new normal", the contradiction between income and expenditure is increasing continuously. This paper studies the liquidity risk of local debt after debt replacement by using the method of undetermined equity analysis. Two aspects have been improved and perfected: first, the specific analysis of the debt-repayable part of the financial revenue, to a large extent, to avoid the proportion of the problem of deviation from the actual or too large; The second is to explicitly introduce the income of local government funds as an important source of debt servicing, and estimate the comprehensive solvency resources, including public finance and government funds. The results of the estimates show that. The pressure on local governments to pay their debts remains high in 2016 and beyond, especially after 2018, when debt servicing is expected to increase as part of the replacement debt expires. A local government debt liquidity crisis may not be avoided by merely utilizing debt-servicing resources based on public revenue and government fund income. Therefore, the following measures should be taken to address debt risks in a timely manner. At the same time, stable economic growth should be taken into account: the corresponding debt replacement should be introduced again in due course; further strengthening the implementation of targeted easing or structural monetary policy; promoting the cooperation model between government and social capital in the field of public services and infrastructure; Local governments should be allowed to reduce their holdings or realize some of the state-owned assets owned by them, and the early warning and accountability mechanism for default risk of local government debts should be strengthened.
【作者单位】：青岛理工大学经贸学院;
【基金】：山东省社会科学规划研究项目“山东商业银行绿色信贷的路径选择”(14CJJJ01) 山东省人文社会科学课题“山东省政府性债务承载能力研究”(14-ZC-JG-01)
【分类号】：F812.5

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