“金砖国家”政府债务的经济增长效应研究

发布时间：2018-03-05 07:46

本文选题：政府债务　切入点：经济增长　出处：《大连理工大学学报(社会科学版)》2017年03期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：通过构造GMM面板模型,对"金砖国家"政府债务规模与经济增长之间的非线性关系进行了实证检验,验证了"金砖国家"政府债务阀值的存在及其动态性,并发现通货膨胀、利率变化、汇率变化、金融发展状况等都会引起政府债务对经济增长非线性影响的波动。利用门槛效应模型测算出"金砖国家"政府债务阀值为30%,当政府债务负担率低于此值时,政府债务对经济增长有较大促进作用,但当债务负担率超过此值时,政府债务对经济增长的积极效应则开始消失,最终表现为对经济增长的消极影响。目前,多数"金砖国家"已经超过这一临界值,因此"金砖国家"需要加强监控,防范政府债务风险问题的发生。
[Abstract]:By constructing GMM panel model, the nonlinear relationship between the size of government debt and economic growth of "BRICS" countries is empirically tested, and the existence and dynamics of the threshold of government debt of "BRICS" are verified, and inflation is found. Changes in interest rates, changes in exchange rates, The financial development situation and so on will cause the fluctuation of the nonlinear influence of government debt on economic growth. Using the threshold effect model, the threshold value of the "BRICS" government debt is estimated to be 30. When the government debt burden ratio is lower than this value, Government debt has a greater role in promoting economic growth, but when the debt burden rate exceeds this value, the positive effect of government debt on economic growth begins to disappear, and the negative effect on economic growth eventually manifests itself. Most BRICS have exceeded that threshold, so the BRICS need to step up controls to prevent government debt risk.
【作者单位】：东北财经大学国际经济贸易学院;
【基金】：教育部人文社科重点研究基地重大项目:“我国战略性新兴产业全球网络布局及其投资策略研究”(13JJD790002)
【分类号】：F113;F811.5

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