郑州市房地产泡沫测算与地方财政风险分析

发布时间：2018-03-06 19:12

本文选题：房地产泡沫　切入点：地方财政收入　出处：《河北大学》2017年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：我国经济的发展和城镇化进程的不断加快对城市的基础设施、公共服务和城市管理能力提出了巨大的挑战。若要解决这些问题,需要加大城市建设力度。而城市建设的主要资金来源为地方财政,因此保证地方财政的稳定性有利于城市建设可持续发展。但当前我国地方财政收入对房地产业依赖度较高,一旦房地产业发生波动,势必会影响到地方财政的稳定性,这个问题引起了社会各界的广泛关注。本文在分析了房地产市场对地方财政收入的影响机制的基础上,基于郑州市2000—2015年的年度时间序列数据,首先测算了郑州市房地产泡沫度,由测算结果可以看出这16年中郑州市房地产泡沫程度处于安全范围,其波动趋势大致为泡沫程度从高到低又从低到高的循环过程,符合郑州市房地产市场大体走势。在此基础上通过构建变参数模型评估郑州市房地产泡沫度对地方财政收入的影响。研究表明,郑州市房地产泡沫度对地方财政收入的影响系数与房地产泡沫度变动趋势在大多数年份都基本保持一致,但影响系数波动范围较小,表明郑州市房地产泡沫度对地方财政收入确实有一定的影响,但影响不太明显。这主要是因为这16年中郑州市房地产泡沫度处于安全范围,其波动趋势尚不足以使财政收入发生大幅变动,但是如果房地产泡沫度继续增大,到一定范围后终将影响地方财政收入的稳定性。因此本文运用BP神经网络测算出郑州市财政风险值,并根据所选指标和房地产泡沫度预警节点分别划定郑州市财政风险预警区间,以便及时发现风险并采取措施减少财政风险发生的可能性。最后在前文分析的基础上给出完善城市建设融资体系及房地产税制等政策建议。
[Abstract]:The development of our economy and the accelerating process of urbanization pose enormous challenges to urban infrastructure, public services and urban management. The main source of capital for urban construction is local finance, so ensuring the stability of local finance is beneficial to the sustainable development of urban construction. But at present, the local financial revenue of our country is highly dependent on the real estate industry. Once the real estate industry fluctuates, it will inevitably affect the stability of local finance, which has aroused widespread concern from all walks of life. This paper analyzes the influence mechanism of real estate market on local financial revenue. Based on the annual time series data of Zhengzhou City from 2000 to 2015, this paper first calculates the real estate bubble degree of Zhengzhou City. From the result of the calculation, we can see that the real estate bubble degree of Zhengzhou City is in a safe range in the past 16 years. The fluctuating trend is roughly a cycle of bubble degree from high to low and from low to high. According to the general trend of real estate market in Zhengzhou. On the basis of this, the influence of real estate bubble degree on local financial revenue is evaluated by building a variable parameter model. The influence coefficient of real estate bubble degree on local fiscal revenue is basically the same as the change trend of real estate bubble degree in most years, but the fluctuation range of the influence coefficient is relatively small. This indicates that the real estate bubble degree in Zhengzhou does have a certain impact on local financial revenue, but the impact is not obvious. This is mainly because the real estate bubble degree in Zhengzhou City has been in a safe range for the past 16 years. The fluctuating trend is not enough to cause substantial changes in fiscal revenues, but if the real estate bubble continues to increase, After a certain range, it will affect the stability of local financial revenue. Therefore, this paper uses BP neural network to calculate the value of financial risk in Zhengzhou. And according to the selected indicators and the real estate bubble warning node, separately delimit the early warning interval of financial risk in Zhengzhou City, In order to find out the risk in time and take measures to reduce the possibility of fiscal risk. Finally, on the basis of the above analysis, some policy suggestions such as perfecting the financing system of urban construction and the tax system of real estate are put forward.
【学位授予单位】：河北大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F299.23;F812.7

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