地方政府性债务风险预警评价研究

发布时间：2018-03-07 08:57

本文选题：地方政府性债务风险　切入点：预警评价　出处：《上海金融》2017年03期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：在构建地方政府性债务风险预警评价指标体系的基础上,利用2012年我国30个省(市、自治区)的相关数据,运用因子分析、聚类分析和判别分析等方法对地方政府性债务风险进行了预警评价研究。研究结论显示:(1)总体上来看,我国多数省份的债务风险处于轻警或无警状态,这在一定程度上说明,我国大部分省份的地方政府性债务风险总体可控,但也有部分省份存在着较为严重的风险隐患,特别是青海、天津和北京,需要引起相当的注意。(2)从地区上来看,西部地区的债务风险状况最为严重,东部地区的债务风险状况次之,中部地区的债务风险状况相对较好。对于各地存在的不同程度的债务风险,需要采取及时有效的措施进行防范和化解,以规避可能引发的债务危机。
[Abstract]:On the basis of constructing the early warning evaluation index system of local government debt risk, using the relevant data of 30 provinces (cities and autonomous regions) in 2012, using factor analysis, Cluster analysis and discriminant analysis are used to study the early warning and evaluation of the local government debt risk. The conclusion shows that the debt risk of most provinces in China is in the state of light warning or no warning, which to some extent indicates that the debt risk in most provinces of our country is in a state of light warning or no warning. The risk of local government debt in most provinces of China is generally controllable, but in some provinces there are serious risks, especially in Qinghai, Tianjin and Beijing, which need considerable attention. The debt risk situation in the western region is the most serious, followed by the debt risk situation in the eastern region, and the debt risk situation in the central region is relatively good. Timely and effective measures should be taken to prevent and resolve the possible debt crisis.
【作者单位】：中国平安集团;南开大学经济学院国际经济研究所;
【分类号】：F812.7

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