中国财政支出政策就业效应研究

发布时间：2018-03-10 07:52

本文选题：财政支出　切入点：就业效应　出处：《辽宁大学》2014年博士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：就业是民生之本。目前,我国面临的就业困境既有供求总量矛盾又有结构性问题,就业形势异常严峻。发达市场经济国家的历史实践表明,单纯依靠市场机制的力量来解决就业问题是不可能的。2008年1月《中华人民共和国就业促进法》的实施,标志着中国从法律层面确定了政府在扩大就业中的职责。2013年中国共产党十八届三中全会通过的《中共中央关于全面深化改革若干重大问题的决定》中明确提出,建立经济发展和扩大就业的联动机制,健全政府促进就业责任制度。这为未来的就业工作指明了方向。财政支出政策作为政府实施宏观经济调控最重要的手段之一,其就业效应到底如何,怎样才能充分发挥其在促进就业中的积极作用值得认真研究。论文主要内容如下：首先,在对国内外有关财政支出政策与就业关系的研究文献进行梳理的基础上,分析了财政支出政策与就业的相关理论。在综合考虑理论基础、支出规模和数据可得性基础上,选择财政投资支出、财政教育支出、财政科技支出、财政社会保障支出和财政行政管理费支出作为财政支出政策变量的代表,分析了它们就业效应的作用机理,并提出了分析方法。其次,对我国财政支出政策的就业效应进行实证分析。通过从促进就业的角度分析我国财政支出政策的演变,指出我国促进就业的财政支出政策经历了一个从被动适应到主动参与的过程。在实证分析方面,利用协整分析、动态响应分析和格兰杰因果分析,实证检验了财政支出总额对就业总量和三次产业就业量的影响以及财政支出结构对就业总量的影响。结果表明：(1)财政支出总额对长期就业总量效应不明显,但在短期有正向影响。国内生产总值对长期就业总量有较大正向影响。工资水平并不是影响就业总量变化的原因,但就业总量变化能引起工资水平的变化。(2)长期上财政支出总额明显抑制第一产业就业,促进第二产业就业,对第三产业就业有较弱的抑制作用。(3)财政支出结构主要项目中只有财政教育支出对长期就业总量有较大正向影响,财政投资支出、财政科技支出、财政行政管理费支出和财政社会保障支出对长期就业总量都有负向影响。财政支出主要项目按促进就业作用大小排序依次为：财政教育支出、财政社会保障支出、财政投资支出、财政科技支出和财政行政管理费支出。接下来,从就业增长与经济增长关系、就业结构变化和劳动力市场供求关系等方面对中国就业状况进行了总体判断,并从财政政策目标、财政投资领域、财政教育支出、财政科技支出、财政行政管理费支出和财政社会保障支出等方面分析了财政支出政策促进就业效果不明显的原因。最后,在原因分析基础上,借鉴主要国家利用财政支出政策促进就业的经验,提出了建立经济增长与促进就业的联动机制、财政支出政策侧重经济结构调整、调整和优化财政支出结构等对策与建议。
[Abstract]:Employment is the people's livelihood. At present, the employment difficulties faced by China is the total supply and demand contradictions and structural problems, the employment situation is very serious. The practice indicates that the history of the developed market economy country, simply rely on the market mechanism to solve the problem of employment is not possible in January.2008 "People's Republic of China Employment Promotion Law" implementation. Chinese marks from the legal level to determine the government is put forward in the expansion of employment.2013 duty years Chinese Communist Party in the third Plenary Session of the 18th CPC Central Committee by the CPC Central Committee "on deepening reform of the overall number of major issues in the decision > the establishment of the economic development, and expanding employment linkage mechanism, perfecting the responsibility system of government to promote employment. It pointed out the direction for future employment one of the means of fiscal expenditure policy. As the government's implementation of macroeconomic regulation and control the most important, the employment effect how, how In order to give full play to its positive role in promoting employment, it is worth studying carefully. The main contents of the paper are as follows:
First of all, based on combing the research literature about the relationship between fiscal expenditure policy and employment at home and abroad, analyzes the related theory of fiscal expenditure policy and employment. In the comprehensive consideration of the theoretical basis, the scale of expenditure and the availability of data on the basis of selection of financial investment expenditure, education expenditure, the fiscal expenditure on science and technology, finance and society security expenditure and financial administrative expenses as a representative of the fiscal expenditure policy variables, analyzes the mechanism of their employment effects, and puts forward the analysis method.
Secondly, the empirical analysis on the employment effect of fiscal expenditure policy in our country. Through the analysis of the evolution of fiscal expenditure policy to promote employment of our country from the point of view, pointed out that China's fiscal expenditure policy to promote employment has undergone a process from passive adaptation to active participation. In the empirical analysis, using cointegration analysis, analysis Grainger analysis and causal dynamic response, empirical test of the impact of total fiscal expenditure on total employment and employment of the three industry and the structure of fiscal expenditure on total employment. The results showed that: (1) the total effect of fiscal expenditure on total employment period is not obvious, but has a positive impact on GDP is short-term. Positive impact on the long-term employment amount. The wage level is not the reason the total employment changes, but total employment changes can cause changes in the wage level. (2) the long-term total fiscal expenditure The amount of inhibition of first industry employment, to promote employment in the second industry, has a weak inhibitory effect on employment in the third industry. (3) the fiscal expenditure structure of major projects only fiscal expenditure on education has great positive impact on the long-term employment, financial investment expenditure, fiscal expenditure and fiscal, administrative expenses and financial expenditure on social security long term employment total fiscal expenditure has a negative impact. The main project according to the employment effect size in order are: education expenditure, social security expenditure, financial investment expenditure, fiscal expenditure and fiscal and administrative expenses.
Next, from the relationship between employment growth and economic growth, the change of employment structure and labor market supply and demand and other aspects of the overall judgment on the Chinese employment status, and from the goal of fiscal policy, financial investment, financial education expenditure, the fiscal expenditure on science and technology, finance and administration expenditure and fiscal expenditure on social security and other aspects of the fiscal expenditure policy to promote the employment effect is not obvious.
Finally, on the basis of cause analysis, we draw lessons from the experience of main countries using fiscal expenditure policy to promote employment, and put forward the countermeasures and suggestions for establishing linkage mechanism between economic growth and employment promotion, focusing on economic structure adjustment, adjusting and optimizing financial expenditure structure.

【学位授予单位】：辽宁大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F812.45;D669.2

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