我国地方政府性债务风险分析及对策研究

发布时间：2018-03-14 22:25

本文选题：地方政府　切入点：地方债务　出处：《广西大学》2016年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：近年来,我国地方政府性债务规模增长迅猛,债务风险成为社会关注的焦点,引起了国务院重视。国务院于2011年和2013年,要求国家审计署组织了两次全国地方政府性债务全面审计,期间还进行了一次局部审计,2014年8月1日修订《预算法》,2015年1月1日实施,从法律层面建立了规范的地方政府举债融资机制,赋予了地方政府依法适度举债融资的权限。财政部也接连出台相关文件,建立了借、用、还相统一的地方政府性债务管理机制。现阶段,在中央经济工作会议提出了 2016年五大任务,化解地方政府债务风险就是其中之一。首先,本文对国内外的相关研究进行梳理和阐述,总结了我国地方政府性债务发展到目前的的三个阶段,分别为1996年之前的起步阶段、1997年至2015年的井喷发展阶段、2015年以后的规范发展阶段。其次,围绕审计署的三次地方政府性债务审计结果,分析我国目前的地方政府性债务面临的风险,一是规模风险,从总体规模角度,通过计算得出我国总体负债率预计在2020年将达到国际标准警戒参考值600%左右;从资产负债表角度地方政府是具有比较大的偿还抵押资源;从局部区域角度,通过SPSS软件因子分析法计算,划分五个风险临界区域,得出我国存在局部风险,尤其以西部地区、民族地区债务风险较大。二是结构风险,从政府层级角度看,县级政府面临较大风险;从债务资金角度看,有引发金融业系统性风险;从偿债资金来源角度看,受政策和人口影响。三是流动性风险,债务高峰期不会衰退,而且会分布在未来的三年。四是外部风险,主要是国内外经济形势造成的影响。最后对风险形成的成因进行分析,主要是财权事权不匹配、地方官员晋升制度和债务管理不透明不科学问题,提出化解风险的对策和建议,要健全完善配套法律体系、匹配中央和地方政府财权事权、改革官员考核制度、继续推行地方债务置换、合理推广PPP模式。
[Abstract]:In recent years, the scale of local government debt in China has increased rapidly, and the risk of debt has become the focus of attention of the society, which has attracted the attention of the State Council. The State Council paid attention to it in 2011 and 2013. The National Audit Office was required to organize two comprehensive audits of national local government debt, and a partial audit was conducted during which the Budget Law was revised in August 1st 2014 and implemented in January 1st 2015. At the legal level, a standardized mechanism of borrowing and financing by local governments has been established, giving local governments the authority to borrow and raise funds appropriately according to law. The Ministry of Finance has also issued relevant documents one after another to establish loans and loans. At this stage, at the Central Economic work Conference, five major tasks were put forward by the Central Economic work Conference, one of which is to resolve the local government debt risk. First of all, This paper summarizes the three stages of the development of local government debt in China. They are the initial stage before 1996, the blowout development stage from 1997 to 2015, the normative development stage after 2015. Secondly, the results of three local government debt audits conducted by the Audit Office. This paper analyzes the risk of local government debt in China at present. The first is scale risk. From the perspective of total scale, it is concluded that the total debt ratio of our country will reach the international standard warning reference value of about 600% in 2020. From the balance sheet point of view, the local government has a relatively large mortgage repayment resources, from the local area perspective, through the SPSS software factor analysis calculation, divided into five risk critical areas, we found that there are local risks in China, especially in the western region. The debt risk in minority areas is relatively high. Second, structural risks. From the perspective of government levels, county-level governments face greater risks; from the perspective of debt financing, there is a systemic risk to the financial sector; and from the perspective of the source of debt-servicing funds, Affected by policy and population. Third, liquidity risk, debt peak period will not decline, and will be distributed in the next three years. Fourth, external risk, mainly caused by the domestic and foreign economic situation. Finally, the causes of risk formation are analyzed. The main problems are the mismatch of financial power and power, the opaque and unscientific problems of local officials' promotion system and debt management, and the countermeasures and suggestions to resolve the risks. It is necessary to perfect the supporting legal system and match the financial power of central and local governments. Reform the official appraisal system, continue to promote local debt replacement, and rationally promote the PPP model.
【学位授予单位】：广西大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2016
【分类号】：F812.5

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