中国地方政府收入预算的科学性研究

发布时间：2018-03-15 02:12

本文选题：地方政府　切入点：收入预算　出处：《浙江财经大学》2014年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：地方政府收入预算的科学性对我国的地方政府预算管理具有重要的影响。对遵循“收支平衡”的地方政府而言，收入预算是否准确、科学，不仅关系到地方政府能否做到预算平衡这一公共管理“底线”，并直接影响政府部门的经济决策和效率，因为无论收入预算被高估，还是低估，都会带来预算的调整。预算调整的决策时间，相比预算准备和谈判阶段，将预算放在一起的反复审议和协商，要大大缩短。更重要的是，政府预算的根本目的，在于强化政府的财政行为。收入预算的科学性将直接关系到能否对政府行为形成强有力的约束，能否真正“将权力关进笼子里”，从源头上根治腐败。因此，收入预算的科学性是公共预算的必然要求，是政府预算科学性的前提和基础。收入预算，作为一种事前估计，不可能对未来所有影响均做出科学预测，出现一定的偏差不可避免。政府预算的科学性是指政府预算编制应大体上符合实际，年初的概算数与最终执行数相差较小。收入预算的科学性，一般采用“收入预决算偏差率”来衡量。偏差率通常有几种计算方法：平均偏差率（Mean PercentageError，简记为MPE）、平均绝对偏差率(Mean Absolute Percentage Error，简记为MAPE)、均方根偏差率(Root Mean Squared Percentage Error，简记为RMSPE)和中位数偏差率(Medium Percentage Error，简记为ME)。由于中位数偏差率排除了奇异值的影响，所以其结果相对其他几种方法会比较准确。而若低估的正偏差率和高估的负偏差率同时出现在样本中，选择平均偏差率的计算结果会明显小于其他衡量指标，但由于我国地方政府普遍存在低估财政收入的现象，只有极个别地区在个别年份才出现过高估，所以平均偏差率和平均绝对偏差率只存在细微差别。因此，本文采用的衡量指标主要是平均偏差率和中位数偏差率。政府收入预算的科学性要求将偏差率控制在合理范围内，并尽可能缩小偏差率。根据国际通行的调整幅度，良好的预算偏差一般不应超过5%，偏差率越小意味着预算越科学。根据1994-2010年这17年间我国30个省（直辖市）级地方政府（西藏除外）的预算执行结果来看，我国地方政府收入预算的科学性主要存在以下特点：（1）地方政府收入预算平均偏差率较高，我国地方政府在这17年间收入预算平均绝对偏差率达到9.16%，而美国州财政收入预算在1987-2009年的23年间的绝对偏差率只有3.5%；（2）收入预算存在普遍的低估现象，只有极个别省份在个别年份才出现过高估现象；（3）收入预算平均偏差率与经济周期关系不显著，存在明显系统性偏差；（4）地方政府收入预算的科学性存在显著的地区性差异，中位数偏差率最高的为宁夏，达到15.35%，最低的是广东，仅为0.41%；（5）东中西部地区的偏差率具有大致相同的变化趋势且东部地区的偏差率相对较低，该期间东部地区平均偏差率为7.79%，中部地区平均偏差率为9.11%，西部地区平均偏差率为10.41%。（6）我国地方政府收入预算偏差主要来自税收收入预算偏差，就税种内部而言，企业所得税平均偏差率最大（8.58%），个人所得税次之（6.43%），营业税相对最为稳定（3.01%）。我国地方政府收入预算科学性整体偏低既有客观上我国正处于经济转型关键时期、相较于其他市场经济制度完善的国家来说收入预测难度确实较大的原因，但更重要的是主观上的原因：技术层面的不完善和制度层面的缺陷。技术层面的原因有：（1）收入预测由政府部门独立完成，准确性较低；（2）收入预测方法太过简单。制度层面的原因才是造成我国地方政府收入预算科学性低的根本性原因，主要的制度因素有：（1）预算编制制度方面，我国预算存在“真空时期”，预算周期短，年度预算具有明显的局限性，政府税收收入存在指令性计划；（2）预算管理制度方面，我国超收收入具有更大的“自由裁量权”,至今没有统一的制度来管理地方预算超收收入,并且超收收入没有纳入预算内管理造成了该部分收入无法审查监督；（3）预算配套制度方面，我国税收征管效率提高和现行行政管理体制中收入压力型政绩评价机制促使地方政府低估财政收入现象频发。基于我国地方政府收入预算科学性的现实特点和原因分析，本文认为可以从以下几个方面提高我国地方政府收入预算的科学性：变税收收入指令性计划为根据经济形势预测收入的方法；改年度预算为年度预算与中长期预算结合；改革收入压力型政绩评价体制；修改《预算法》，利用法制手段控制超收；完善预算监督体制，提高预算的透明度。本文的创新之处其一在于选取地方政府收入预算为研究对象。目前在国内研究财政超收、预决算偏差率的文献不多，并且基本上是以国家层面为研究对象的。因为地方政府是政府支出的主体，70%的政府支出由地方政府完成，而且地方政府没有发债券，，所以“平衡预算”对地方政府来说尤为重要。所以选取地方政府收入预算为研究对象比选取国家层面为研究对象更有意义，对完善我国公共预算体制具有较大作用。其二在于研究视角广。本文把我国地方政府收入预算的科学性现状放到世界背景下，与国外预算管理体制较完善的美国和OECD部分国家进行了详细比较，以使原因的分析更有深度，提出的建议更具科学性和可操作性。
[Abstract]:Has an important effect on scientific revenue budget of local government of our country local government budget management. To follow the "balance" of the local government, the revenue budget is accurate, scientific, not only related to the local government can achieve the budget balance of the public management of "bottom line", which directly affects the government's economic decision-making and efficiency, because both revenue budget is overvalued or undervalued, and will bring about the adjustment of the budget. The budget adjustment decision time, compared to the budget preparation and negotiation stage, the budget will be put together repeatedly review and consultation, to be shortened. More importantly, the fundamental purpose of the government budget, is to strengthen the government's fiscal behavior scientific budget income will be directly related to whether the behavior of government to form a strong constraint, can really be powers locked in a cage, from the source to cure corruption. Therefore, The scientificalness of the income budget is the necessary requirement of the public budget, and is the prerequisite and foundation of the scientific budget of the government.
Revenue budget, as a prior estimate is not possible for all future effects of scientific forecast deviation, inevitably. Science of government budget refers to the government budget should be broadly in line with the actual number of budget, and the final implementation of the difference between the number of early small. Scientific budget income, generally use the "pre income the final error rate" to measure the rate of deviation. There are usually several calculation methods: average deviation rate (Mean PercentageError, abbreviated as MPE), the average absolute deviation rate (Mean Absolute Percentage Error, abbreviated as MAPE), root mean square deviation (Root Mean Squared Percentage Error, abbreviated as RMSPE) and the median deviation rate (Medium Percentage Error, abbreviated as ME). The median deviation rate excluding the influence of singular value, so the results will be more accurate than other methods. While the positive deviation rate if undervalued and high The negative deviation of estimated rate also appears in the sample, select the calculation of average deviation rate results will be significantly less than other indicators, but because of China's local governments generally underestimated revenue phenomenon, there are very few areas in individual years to appear overvalued, so the average deviation rate and average absolute deviation rate only subtle differences therefore, the main measure is the average deviation rate and median deviation rate. Science requires the government revenue budget deviation rate will be controlled in a reasonable range, and reduce the rate of deviation. According to the adjustment of international traffic, good general budget deviation should not exceed 5% of the smaller mean deviation rate the budget is more scientific.
According to the 30 provinces in the 17 years 1994-2010 years in China (municipality) level of local government (except Tibet) the results of the budget implementation, scientific budget of local governments in our country mainly has the following characteristics: (1) the income of the local government budget of the average deviation rate is higher, China's local government revenue in the past 17 years the average absolute deviation of the budget rate reached 9.16%, while the United States state fiscal revenue budget rate of only 3.5% in the 1987-2009 years of the absolute deviation of 23 years; (2) revenue budget widespread undervaluation phenomenon, only very few provinces in individual years there have been only overestimated; (3) the relationship between the average deviation rate of revenue budget and economic cycle obviously, the existence of difference system; (4) regional differences exist significant scientific estimates of revenue of local government, the median deviation rate of Ningxia was the highest, reaching 15.35%, Guangdong is the lowest, only 0.41%; (5) the East The deviation of the Midwest rate has approximately the same change trend and the deviation of the eastern region was relatively low, the average deviation during the period of the eastern region was 7.79%, the average deviation of the central region was 9.11%, the average deviation of the western region was 10.41%. (6) revenue budget deviation of local government in China mainly from the tax revenue on budget deviation. Internal tax, enterprise income tax, the maximum average deviation rate (8.58%), personal income tax (6.43% times), the business tax is relatively the most stable (3.01%).
Our local government revenue budget scientific overall low both our objective is in a critical period of economic transition, compared with other countries, the perfect market economic system revenue forecast difficulty is greater, but more important is the subjective reason: the defects of the technical level is not perfect and the system level. For technical reasons level: (1) revenue forecast completed by government departments, the accuracy is low; (2) revenue forecast method is too simple. The institutional reasons is the result of China's local government budget income low scientific fundamental reason, system factors mainly include: (1) budgeting system. Our budget "vacuum period", the budget cycle is short, the annual budget has obvious limitations, the government tax revenue have a mandatory plan; (2) the budget management system, our revenue has more "Discretion", there is no unified system to manage the local budgetary revenue, and excess revenue not included in the budget management caused the part of the revenue to review supervision; (3) the budget system, improve the collection efficiency of pressure type performance income tax in China and the existing system of administrative management evaluation mechanism to promote the local government frequently underestimate the fiscal revenue.
Analysis of characteristics of China's local government budget income and scientific reasons, it can improve the scientific budget of local government in China from the following aspects: the change of tax revenue for mandatory plans according to the income method to predict the economic situation; change the annual budget with the annual budget and long-term budget reform; income pressure type of performance evaluation system; amending the budget law, using legal means to control surplus; improve the budget supervision system, improve the transparency of the budget.
The innovation of this paper lies in the selection of local government revenue as the research object. At present in the domestic research for the excess budget, the deviation of literature, and basically is at the national level as the research object. Because the local government is the main body of government spending, 70% of government spending by local governments, and local the government has not issued bonds, so the "balanced budget" is very important for the local government. So the selection of local government budget revenue as the research object is selected as the research object the national level to more meaningful, has greater effect on improving our public budget system. The second is the research perspective. This paper analyzes the present state of scientific estimates of revenue of local government in China on the background of the world, in some countries the United States and abroad OECD and perfect budget management system in detail, in order to make the analysis more deep reason Degree, the proposed proposal is more scientific and operable.

【学位授予单位】：浙江财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F812.3

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