政府消费对人民币实际汇率的影响研究

发布时间：2018-03-19 07:01

本文选题：实际汇率　切入点：政府消费　出处：《浙江工商大学》2014年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：实际汇率作为在开放经济条件下一种重要的相对价格水平,在全球经济中起到资源配置的作用,是影响一国国际竞争力的重要变量,对一国的经济发展具有广泛的影响力,因此实际汇率一直是学术界研究的重要课题。通过研读大量关于实际汇率的文献可知,学者们主要从三个方面对实际汇率展开研究：第一,从影响实际汇率的因素的角度。这些因素包括生产率、政府消费、经常账户等；第二,测算均衡实际汇率；第三,实际汇率的变动如何影响其它经济变量。例如实际汇率是如何影响经济增长的。在影响实际汇率的因素中,巴拉萨-萨缪尔森(BS)效应自1964年提出以来在国际上引起了广泛的争论,一直是学者们所热衷的课题。Froot和Rogoff(1991)通过假设政府消费主要用于非贸易部门的商品和服务,从而提高非贸易部门的相对价格水平,使得本国实际汇率升值。政府消费对实际汇率的影响在国际上被称为弗洛特-罗格夫效应。国内学者对巴拉萨-萨缪尔森效应从不同的角度展开了大量的研究,但是对弗洛特-罗格夫效应的研究却非常的少,有些在均衡汇率的研究中也并没有加入政府消费这一控制变量。那么在中国,政府消费是否会对人民币实际汇率产生影响正是本文所要研究的。本文首先选择了国内31个省份,对1994-2012年的面板数据进行了政府消费对内部实际汇率影响的实证分析。然后选取了全球180个经济体,利用中国和各个经济体的相对变量对1994-2012年的面板数据做了相对政府消费对人民币双边实际汇率的影响实证分析。得到如下结论：第一,中国政府消费是通过影响非贸易部门的相对价格水平影响人民币实际汇率的；第二：中国政府消费增加会推动人民币实际汇率升值。总体来说,中国政府消费每增加1%,人民币实际汇率大约升值13%；第三：短期内人民币实际汇率仍有升值的空间。最后我们得到如下启示：如果人民币实际汇率的升值是基于生产力的提高,那么此时人民币实际汇率的升值是正常合理的,能够促进国经济长期增长。但是由于不合理的政府消费支出所导致的人民币实际汇率升值对长期经济发展是有害的,是需要改进的。
[Abstract]:As an important relative price level in the open economy, the real exchange rate plays a role in the allocation of resources in the global economy. It is an important variable that affects a country's international competitiveness and has a wide influence on the economic development of a country. Therefore, the real exchange rate has always been an important subject of academic research. By reading a large number of documents on the real exchange rate, scholars have mainly studied the real exchange rate from three aspects: first, From the perspective of the factors affecting the real exchange rate. These factors include productivity, government consumption, current account, etc.; second, measuring the equilibrium real exchange rate; third, How changes in the real exchange rate affect other economic variables. For example, how the real exchange rate affects economic growth. Since its introduction in 1964, the Balassa-Samuelson effect has aroused widespread international controversy and has been a hot topic for scholars. Froot and Rogoffl 1991) by assuming that government consumption is mainly used in non-trade sectors of goods and services, Thus raising the level of relative prices in the non-trade sector, The influence of government consumption on the real exchange rate is known internationally as the Flot-Rogoff effect. Domestic scholars have carried out a lot of research on the Balassa-Samuelson effect from different angles. But there are very few studies on the Flot-Rogoff effect, some of which do not include government consumption as a control variable in the study of the equilibrium exchange rate. Well, in China, Whether government consumption will have an impact on the real exchange rate of RMB is exactly what this paper will study. In this paper, 31 provinces are selected to analyze the impact of government consumption on the internal real exchange rate from 1994 to 2012. Then 180 economies are selected. Using the relative variables of China and various economies, this paper makes an empirical analysis of the impact of government consumption on the real exchange rate of RMB from 1994 to 2012. The conclusions are as follows: first, Chinese government consumption affects the real exchange rate of the RMB by influencing the relative price level of the non-trade sector. Second, the increase in Chinese government consumption will promote the appreciation of the real exchange rate of the RMB. For every 1 percent increase in Chinese government consumption, the real exchange rate of the RMB will appreciate by about 13 percent. Third, there is still room for appreciation of the real exchange rate of the renminbi in the short term. Finally, we get the following enlightenment: if the appreciation of the real exchange rate of the RMB is based on the increase in productivity, Well, at this point, the appreciation of the RMB real exchange rate is normal and reasonable and can promote the long-term economic growth of the country. However, the appreciation of the RMB real exchange rate caused by unreasonable government consumption expenditure is harmful to the long-term economic development. Is in need of improvement.
【学位授予单位】：浙江工商大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F832.6;F812.45

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