欧债危机对中国向欧元区出口的影响分析

发布时间：2018-03-19 13:10

本文选题：欧洲主权债务危机　切入点：出口贸易　出处：《复旦大学》2014年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：欧洲主权债务危机对欧洲经济和世界经济都产生了很大的影响。危机让人们开始关注欧元区政府经常项目失衡问题、欧元区成员国缺乏有效货币政策调控的问题、欧洲经济缺乏生产性的问题等一系列问题,同时,也使中国这个发展中大国不得不重视欧洲主权债务危机可能给中欧经贸带来的挑战。本文通过分析,论证了欧洲主权债务危机对我国和欧元区贸易的影响主要会通过三个方面进行：首先,欧洲主权债务危机对欧元区、欧盟乃至世界的经济造成打击,直接导致欧洲的企业和消费者对中国出口产品需求下降,间接导致欧洲外国家和地区对中国出口需求减少,从而影响中国出口。其次,危机可能影响欧元区的物价,从而影响欧元区消费主体对国内产品和国外产品的需求,进而影响我国对欧元区出口。第三,欧债危机造成欧元相对于人民币贬值,继而影响中国对欧出口。本文运用向量自回归模型(VAR),配合Johansen协整检验,Granger因果检验和脉冲响应函数分析,对危机发生前的1999年2月至2009年9月,以及危机发生后的2009年10月至2012年12月两段时间区间内,中国对欧元区出口情况进行分段实证研究。研究结果显示,第一阶段,欧元兑人民币汇率、欧元区物价指数以及欧元区工业生产指数均对我国向欧元区出口有显著影响,脉冲响应函数的结果表示,在4期冲击内欧元区工业生产指数对我国出口正冲击最大,4期到6期内,欧元区物价指数对我国出口正冲击最大,6期之后,欧元兑人民币汇率成为正冲击最大的影响因素。而第二阶段,脉冲响应函数显示2期后汇率和物价对我国出口的正冲击非常有限,欧元区的工业生产指数变成了从第1期开始就对我国出口正冲击最大的因素。由于这个变量在本文实证模型中的作用是替代欧元区国民收入(GDP)指标的,用以表示欧元区经济增长的情况,因此可以认为危机后,影响我国对欧元区出口最敏感的因素是欧洲经济增长指标。这可能是因为欧洲经济普遍缺乏生产性,在受到危机的打击后,很难恢复经济的健康发展。于是,宏观经济指标成为欧洲经济能否复苏最直接的表现,会直接影响欧元区进口的需求和决策以及我国对其出口的需求和决策。最后,本文对我国在欧洲主权债务危机爆发后,如何维护和改善对欧元区出口状况提出建议。
[Abstract]:The European sovereign debt crisis has had a significant impact on both the European economy and the world economy. The crisis has drawn attention to the current account imbalances of the governments of the euro zone and the lack of effective monetary policy controls in the euro zone. A series of problems, such as the lack of productive economy in Europe, also make China, a developing country, have to pay attention to the challenges that Europe's sovereign debt crisis may bring to China's economy and trade. It is demonstrated that the impact of the European sovereign debt crisis on the trade between China and the euro zone will be carried out mainly through three aspects: first, the European sovereign debt crisis has dealt a blow to the economies of the euro zone, the European Union and even the world. As a direct result of the decline in demand for Chinese exports from European enterprises and consumers, and indirectly for European countries and regions, the demand for Chinese exports has been reduced, thus affecting Chinese exports. Secondly, the crisis may affect prices in the euro zone. As a result, the demand for domestic and foreign products by the main consumers in the euro zone is affected, thus affecting China's exports to the euro zone. Third, the European debt crisis has resulted in the depreciation of the euro relative to the renminbi. In this paper, we use the vector autoregressive model, Johansen cointegration test, Granger causality test and impulse response function analysis to analyze the crisis from February 1999 to September 2009. And during the period from October 2009 to December 2012 after the crisis, China conducted a sectional empirical study on the export situation of the euro zone. The results show that, in the first stage, the exchange rate of the euro against the renminbi, Both the eurozone price index and the index of industrial production in the euro area have a significant impact on China's exports to the euro zone. The results of the impulse response function indicate that. During the four periods of impact, the industrial production index of the euro zone had the greatest positive impact on China's exports within four to six periods, and after the largest positive impact of the eurozone price index on China's exports for six periods, The euro / RMB exchange rate has become the most influential factor in the positive shock. In the second stage, the impulse response function shows that the positive impact of exchange rate and price on China's exports is very limited after the second period. The industrial production index of the euro zone has become the biggest positive impact on China's exports since the beginning of the first issue. Because this variable plays a role in the empirical model of this paper, it is a substitute for the eurozone national income (GDP) index. Used to describe economic growth in the euro zone, it can be argued that after the crisis, the most sensitive factor affecting our country's exports to the euro zone is the European economic growth indicator. This may be due to the general lack of productivity in the European economy. After being hit by the crisis, it is difficult to restore healthy economic development. As a result, macroeconomic indicators have become the most direct indication of whether the European economy can recover. It will directly affect the demand and decision of the euro zone's import and the demand and decision of our country's export. Finally, this paper puts forward some suggestions on how to maintain and improve the situation of our country's exports to the euro zone after the outbreak of the European sovereign debt crisis.
【学位授予单位】：复旦大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F815;F752.7

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