地方政府预算软约束对财政扩张激励的影响研究——基于我国地级市营改增试点的双重差分回归分析

发布时间：2018-03-20 03:00

本文选题：营改增　切入点：预算软约束　出处：《现代管理科学》2017年10期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：政府间财政上的预算软约束通常由动态承诺问题所导致,然而,实证上却很难观测到政府间预算软约束的相关证据。文章利用试点营改增的地区差别及时间先后构建双重差分回归模型。实证结果表明,营改增政策导致地级市政府科学事业支出占其财政支出比重提高28.5%至32.5%。地方政府预期营业税收入减少之后,仍然呈现出显著的财政扩张冲动,意味着地方政府财政层面的预算软约束。由于试点营改增的地区与当地政府科学事业支出占其财政支出之比可能存在相互影响,文章进一步利用相关测度预算软约束的代理变量进行稳健性检验。结果表明,即使在财政预算内支出普遍并且经常小于预算内收入的情形,地方政府仍然倾向于进行财政扩张,预算软约束以及关于未来财政红利的预期最终使得地方政府倾向于维持经常性以及普遍性的财政赤字。
[Abstract]:Soft budgetary constraints at the intergovernmental level are usually the result of dynamic commitment problems, however, On the other hand, it is very difficult to observe the evidence of the inter-governmental budget soft constraint. This paper constructs a double differential regression model by using the regional difference and time sequence of the increase of the pilot camp. The empirical results show that, The policy of camp reform and increase has led to an increase of 28.5% to 32.5% of the prefectural municipal government's expenditure on science and technology. After the local government expects the sales tax revenue to decrease, it still shows a marked impulse of fiscal expansion. This means that the local government's budget is soft at the financial level. Because the proportion of the local government's expenditure on science in the area where the pilot camp is changed may interact with the local government's fiscal expenditure, The results show that even when the budget expenditure is universal and often smaller than the budget income, the local government still tends to expand the budget. Soft budget constraints and expectations of future fiscal dividends ultimately make local governments inclined to maintain regular and universal deficits.
【作者单位】：中国人民大学经济学院;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金应急项目(项目号:71641026)
【分类号】：F812

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