国库库存纳入货币统计口径探析——基于货币政策中介目标有效性标准视角

发布时间：2018-03-22 08:19

本文选题：国库库存　切入点：货币统计口径　出处：《金融理论与实践》2015年03期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：随着我国宏观经济的快速持续增长,以及财政体制改革的深化,国库收支运行出现了新态势,突出表现为国库库存规模的不断递增,并且波动幅度不断加大,国库库存已经成为影响货币供应量的重要因素,在货币操作中需要密切关注国库资金的运行变化。首先描述了近年来我国国库库存变化的特征,然后基于货币政策中介目标有效性的可测性、可控性和相关性三个标准对现有货币统计口径和加入国库库存后的货币统计口径进行比较。从实证的结果来看,新的货币口径要优于原有的货币口径,因此将国库库存纳入货币中介目标监控体系,才能更好地反映宏观经济金融的实际情况,进一步提高货币政策的有效性。最后提出了将地方国库库存纳入货币统计口径,完善国库集中收付改革,推进地方国库现金管理三个政策建议。
[Abstract]:With the rapid and sustained growth of China's macro economy and the deepening of the reform of the financial system, there is a new situation in the operation of the state treasury revenue and expenditure, which is highlighted by the continuous increase in the scale of the treasury inventory and the continuous increase in the range of fluctuations. Treasury inventory has become an important factor affecting money supply, and it is necessary to pay close attention to the operational changes of treasury funds in currency operation. Firstly, it describes the characteristics of treasury inventory changes in China in recent years. Then, based on the three criteria of measurability, controllability and correlation of the effectiveness of monetary policy intermediation target, the paper compares the existing monetary statistical caliber with the monetary statistical caliber after the addition of treasury inventory. The new currency caliber is better than the original currency caliber, so only by incorporating treasury inventory into the monetary intermediary target monitoring system can we better reflect the actual situation of macroeconomic and financial affairs. Finally, the paper puts forward three policy suggestions on how to bring local treasury inventory into monetary statistics, perfect the reform of treasury centralized collection and payment, and promote local treasury cash management.
【作者单位】：中国人民银行昆明中心支行;
【分类号】：F822.0;F812.2

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