城镇化、老龄化背景下的民生财政与居民消费

发布时间：2018-03-24 04:24

本文选题：城镇化　切入点：人口老龄化　出处：《北京理工大学学报(社会科学版)》2017年03期

【摘要】：基于对中国消费者行为特征的分析,建立了研究城镇化、人口老龄化作用下民生财政支出影响居民消费的理论框架。运用2006—2014年中国大陆31个省、市、自治区的面板数据,使用动态广义矩估计方法进行了实证分析。实证检验结果表明:民生财政支出对居民消费产生了负向的影响,民生财政支出的增加分别导致了人均实际消费支出和居民消费率的下降。从需求层次提升和预期不确定性增加两个方面对这一结果进行了解释,并提出只有当民生财政支出提高覆盖程度到足以降低消费者不确定性预期并且能够匹配消费层次提升时,才可以对居民消费产生正向的影响。
[Abstract]:Based on the analysis of the characteristics of consumer behavior in China, a theoretical framework is established to study the effects of urbanization and population aging on the consumption of residents. The panel data of 31 provinces, municipalities and autonomous regions in mainland China from 2006 to 2014 are used. The empirical analysis is carried out using the dynamic generalized moment estimation method. The empirical results show that the financial expenditure of the people's livelihood has a negative impact on the consumption of residents. The increase in financial expenditure on the people's livelihood has led to a decrease in the real per capita consumption expenditure and the resident consumption rate, respectively. The results are explained in terms of the upgrading of demand levels and the increase in the uncertainty of expectations. It is proposed that only when the financial expenditure of the people's livelihood increases the coverage degree enough to reduce the uncertainty of consumers and can match the level of consumption, it can have a positive impact on the consumption of residents.
【作者单位】：北京理工大学人文与社会科学学院;
【分类号】：F812.45;F126.1

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