财政状况与地方债务规模——基于转移支付视角的新发现

发布时间：2018-03-25 12:25

本文选题：财政盈亏　切入点：地方债务规模　出处：《财贸经济》2015年06期

【摘要】：理论分析认为地方政府财政收不抵支是政府举债的重要原因,但由于地方政府债务数据不易获得,而且财政状况与债务规模之间往往存在循环因果关系等,上述理论在中国是否成立,缺乏实证检验。基于2004-2009年321个地级市数据,本文首次使用政府间转移支付作为地方政府财政盈亏的工具变量,有效控制了财政状况与债务规模之间的内生性关联,实证分析了地方政府财政缺口与地方债务规模之间的关系。研究结果显示,地方政府财政状况与地方债务规模之间的关系出乎常识认知,两者之间呈现显著负向关系:即财政缺口越大,地方债务规模的增长越缓慢。这说明,基层政府财政困难导致地方债务规模快速膨胀的传统观点有待商榷,地方债务的持续扩张另有其因。
[Abstract]:The theoretical analysis shows that the local government's fiscal revenue is an important reason for the government to borrow, but the local government debt data are not easy to obtain, and there is a circular causal relationship between the financial situation and the debt scale, etc. Based on the data of 321 prefecture-level cities from 2004 to 2009, this paper first uses the inter-governmental transfer payment as the tool variable of the local government's financial profit and loss. It effectively controls the endogenous relationship between the financial situation and the debt scale, and empirically analyzes the relationship between the financial gap of the local government and the scale of the local debt. The relationship between the financial position of local governments and the scale of local debt is far from common sense, and there is a significant negative relationship between the two: that is, the larger the financial gap, the slower the growth of local debt. The traditional view that the financial difficulties of grass-roots governments lead to the rapid expansion of local debt scale is open to question, and there is another reason for the continuous expansion of local debt.
【作者单位】：对外经济贸易大学国际经济贸易学院;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金青年项目“中国政府间转移支付的效应研究:理论、实证分析与政策含义”(71003059) 北京市哲学社会科学规划项目“财税改革与北京加快转变经济发展方式:基于‘营改增'视角的研究”(13JGC070)
【分类号】：F812.7

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