中国税收政策的福利成本——基于两部门结构转型框架的定量分析

发布时间：2018-03-28 10:27

本文选题：结构转型　切入点：税收政策　出处：《经济研究》2015年09期

【摘要】：本文在标准两部门结构转型框架下引入税收,应用福利分析法研究了政府税收政策对经济的长期和短期影响,并估算了中国税收的福利成本。研究发现,政府对经济主导部门——非国有部门的税收会对经济产生影响,而对国有部门的税收则无影响。从长期来看,政府对非国有部门的税收降低了平衡增长路径上的消费和资本存量;从短期来看,政府永久性提高对非国有部门的税收会刺激消费,但同时也抑制了投资。最后,本文校准了模型的参数,并估算了税收的福利成本,结果表明:我国税收的福利成本相当于消费水平减少6%—7%,将非国有部门的税率减少5个百分点,福利成本会下降1.5%;税率减少10个百分点,福利成本则会下降3%。
[Abstract]:In this paper, we introduce tax into the framework of standard two-sector structural transformation, apply welfare analysis method to study the long-term and short-term impact of government tax policy on economy, and estimate the welfare cost of tax revenue in China. In the long run, the government's taxation on the non-state-owned sector will have an impact on the economy, but not on the state-owned sector. In the long run, the government's taxation on the non-state-owned sector has reduced the consumption and capital stock along the path of balanced growth; In the short run, a permanent increase in government taxes on the non-state sector will stimulate consumption, but at the same time discourage investment. Finally, this paper calibrates the parameters of the model and estimates the cost of tax benefits. The results show that the welfare cost of tax in our country is equivalent to the reduction of consumption level by 6-7 percent, the tax rate of the non-state-owned sector will be reduced by 5 percentage points, the welfare cost will be reduced by 1.5 percent, the tax rate will be reduced by 10 percentage points, and the welfare cost will be reduced by three percent.
【作者单位】：北京大学光华管理学院;
【基金】：北京大学研究生院才斋奖学金项目(CZ201410)的资助
【分类号】：F812.42

【参考文献】