美国征收碳关税影响中国对美出口贸易研究

发布时间：2018-03-31 04:08

本文选题：美国清洁能源安全法案　切入点：碳关税　出处：《湖北大学》2014年硕士论文

【摘要】：美国于2009年颁布了《美国清洁能源安全法案》,该法案中规定,美国将在2020年对该国进口的“高碳”产品按其隐含碳含量征收碳关税。长久以来美国一直作为中国的最大出口贸易对象国,该法案的实施必将冲击中国对美国出口贸易。基于以上背景,本论文将首先通过梳理国内外相关文献研究,解读全球已取得的关于碳关税对出口贸易影响的相关研究成果,同时总结目前已有研究的不足以展望未来研究发展前景；其次本文将从出口产品价格和出口贸易规模两个方面入手阐明碳关税如何对一国出口贸易产生影响,通过其作用机制的层层剖析来为后文实证分析的引入作铺垫；然后本文将以22种具有代表性的出口产品为对象,采用1997年至2012年《中国海关统计年鉴》及美国经济分析局的数据,从价格变动的视角拟在产品层面进行美国预征碳关税对中国出口贸易影响的实证研究,研究思路分两步,首先本文将会建立一个出口需求回归方程,通过回归计算出这22种具代表性的出口产品相应的价格弹性系数,其次本文将根据不同产品的单位价值能耗、标煤碳排放系数及折合二氧化碳排放量系数来计算不同碳关税税率情境下价格变动的百分比,通过计算与其相应价格弹性系数的乘积,得出每一种产品的出口数量变动率,所得研究结果显示,在拟定的美国实施30、60、85美元／吨C02碳关税税率下,本文所研究全部产品出口价格弹性系数均小于零值,其出口数量也都有不同程度的下降。接下来本文将对实证结果进行分析,对比中国对美国的出口贸易现状说明美国征收碳关税后中国出口贸易变化的概况；在经过对实证结果的对比分析后,本文会从出口市场多元化、出口产业结构调整转型、能源结构优化、低碳技术引入研发、碳税体系建立这五个不同方面就美国预征碳关税对中国产品出口贸易产生潜在影响的问题上做出相应的政策建议。
[Abstract]:The United States enacted the United States Clean Energy Security Act in 2009, which provides that. The United States will impose a carbon tariff on its "high-carbon" imports in 2020 at the level of its implied carbon content. The United States has long been China's biggest export target, and the implementation of the bill is bound to hit China's exports to the United States. Based on the above background, this paper will first through combing the domestic and foreign related literature research, to interpret the global carbon tariffs on the impact of export trade related research results, At the same time, it concludes that the current research is not enough to forecast the future research and development prospects. Secondly, this paper will explain how carbon tariffs have an impact on a country's export trade from the price of export products and the scale of export trade. Through the layer by layer analysis of its mechanism to pave the way for the introduction of empirical analysis; then this paper will take 22 representative export products as the object. Based on the Statistical Yearbook of China Customs from 1997 to 2012 and the data of the Bureau of Economic Analysis of the United States, this paper intends to carry out an empirical study on the impact of American carbon tariffs on China's export trade at the product level from the perspective of price changes. The research ideas are divided into two steps. First, a regression equation of export demand will be established, and the corresponding price elasticity coefficient of 22 representative export products will be calculated by regression. Secondly, according to the energy consumption per unit value of different products, The carbon emission coefficient of standard coal and the carbon dioxide emission coefficient can be used to calculate the percentage of price change under different carbon tariff rates. By calculating the product of price elasticity coefficient, the change rate of export quantity of each product can be obtained. The results show that the price elasticity coefficient of all the products studied in this paper is less than zero under the proposed tariff rate of US $30 / t CO2 carbon tariff. Then this paper will analyze the empirical results and compare the current situation of China's export trade with the United States to illustrate the changes of China's export trade after the United States imposed carbon tariffs. After the comparative analysis of the empirical results, this paper will diversify the export market, restructure the export industry, optimize the energy structure, introduce low carbon technology into R & D. The five different aspects of carbon tax system make corresponding policy recommendations on the potential impact of American carbon tariffs on China's export trade.
【学位授予单位】：湖北大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F817.12;F752.62

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