日本财政支出结构对居民消费的影响研究（1995—2014）

发布时间：2018-04-03 03:20

本文选题：财政支出　切入点：财政支出结构　出处：《辽宁大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：日本是政府主导型的市场经济国家,虽然近几年日本政府财政支出不断增加,在一定程度上促进了日本居民的消费,但与其他发达国家相比,日本居民的消费率依然偏低。2012年安倍晋三再次担任日本首相,并随之大肆推行日本经济刺激计划。“安倍经济学”中一个重要的内容为:通过大规模量化宽松政策提升民众的消费信心,并增强居民对通货膨胀的预期,来达到促进日本国内居民消费增长的目的。由此可见,日本政府对日本国内内需不足的关注。与此同时日本财政支出结构对日本居民消费的影响直接关系到日本宏观经济政策的制定,提高日本居民消费的能力已经成为日本制定宏观经济政策的重要内容。面对此情况,本文探讨了日本政府支出结构与居民消费的关系。论文首先回顾和评述了经典的居民消费与财政支出理论,同时也阐明各类财政支出结构对居民消费的影响机制。然后通过相关统计数据,对日本财政支出的结构及日本居民消费发展的现状进行一番剖析,接着运用计量模型与灰色关联度分析的方法分析二者的关系,最后得出结论并提出促进我国居民消费的政府支出结构的建议。本文在计量方法上采用了VAR模型,运用1995年—2014年的日本财政各类支出与居民消费的经济数据,来分析三类支出对日本个人消费的作用力大小。结论表明:经济性、社会性以及维持性支出都会挤入日本私人消费。但对私人消费的影响程度却是有区别的。其中,社会性支出对日本居民消费的挤入效果最明显,其次是经济性财政支出,最后是维持性财政支出。基于实证分析,文章得出相应的分析结果,并且,我国当前正处于经济快速增长及转型的特殊时期,日本财政支出结构方面的经验教训对于我国在调整财政支出规模、预防财政危机、完善各类财政支出结构等方面都有一定的启示。
[Abstract]:Japan is a government-dominated market economy country. Although in recent years Japanese government fiscal expenditure has been increasing, to some extent, it has promoted the consumption of Japanese residents, but compared with other developed countries,Japanese residents' consumption rates remain low. Shinzo Abe became prime minister again in 2012, followed by an aggressive stimulus package.An important part of Abenomics is to boost consumer confidence and inflation expectations through massive quantitative easing in order to boost consumption growth in Japan.This shows that the Japanese government is concerned about insufficient domestic demand in Japan.At the same time, the influence of Japanese fiscal expenditure structure on Japanese residents' consumption is directly related to the formulation of Japan's macroeconomic policy. Improving the ability of Japanese residents' consumption has become an important part of Japan's macroeconomic policy formulation.In the face of this situation, this paper discusses the relationship between the structure of Japanese government expenditure and residents' consumption.Firstly, this paper reviews and comments on the classical theories of resident consumption and fiscal expenditure, at the same time, it clarifies the influence mechanism of various kinds of fiscal expenditure structure on residents' consumption.Then through the relevant statistical data, the structure of Japan's fiscal expenditure and the current situation of Japanese residents' consumption development are analyzed, and then the relationship between them is analyzed by using the method of econometric model and grey correlation analysis.Finally, the paper draws a conclusion and puts forward some suggestions on the structure of government expenditure to promote the consumption of Chinese residents.In this paper, the VAR model is used to analyze the effect of three kinds of expenditure on Japanese personal consumption by using the economic data of various kinds of fiscal expenditure and resident consumption from 1995 to 2014.The conclusion shows that economic, social and maintenance expenditure will crowd into Japanese private consumption.But the impact on private consumption is different.Among them, social expenditure has the most obvious effect on Japanese residents' consumption, followed by economic expenditure and maintenance expenditure.Based on the empirical analysis, the paper draws the corresponding analysis results, and China is currently in a special period of rapid economic growth and transformation. The experience and lessons of Japanese fiscal expenditure structure in adjusting the scale of fiscal expenditure in China.To prevent the financial crisis, improve the structure of various types of financial expenditure and other aspects have some enlightenment.
【学位授予单位】：辽宁大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F811.4;F113.9

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