不同经济状态下政府支出乘数的差异性研究

发布时间：2018-04-09 22:19

本文选题：不同经济状态　切入点：政府支出乘数　出处：《财贸研究》2017年08期

【摘要】：鉴于我国财政支出政策具有非线性效应特征,最终在带交互效应的参数时变面板结构向量自回归模型(TVP-PSVAR)基础上的实证分析发现:经济过热及经济衰退时期,较低贸易开放度下政府投资支出政策效果更显著,其他正常时期较高贸易开放度下政府投资支出乘数较大;而整个样本区间内,较低贸易开放度下政府消费支出乘数更大。整个样本区间内,较低政府债务率都将导致较高的政府投资支出乘数及政府消费支出乘数。经济衰退时期,经济发展水平低的省份政府投资支出乘数更大,其他时期经济发展水平高的省份政府投资支出乘数更大;除了经济过热时期的其他样本区间内,较高经济发展水平的省份基本具有较高的政府消费支出乘数。
[Abstract]:In view of the nonlinear effect of fiscal expenditure policy in China, the empirical analysis based on the parametric time-varying panel structure vector autoregressive model (TVP-PSVARA) with interactive effects shows that: economic overheating and recession period.The effect of government investment expenditure policy is more significant under lower trade openness, higher trade openness in other normal periods, larger multiplier in government investment expenditure, and greater multiplier in government consumption expenditure under lower trade openness in the whole sample range.Throughout the sample range, lower government debt rates will result in higher government investment spending multipliers and government consumption spending multipliers.During the recession, the multiplier of government investment expenditure in the provinces with low level of economic development was greater than that in the provinces with high level of economic development in other periods; in addition to other sample periods in the period of economic overheating, the multiplier of government investment expenditure in the provinces with a low level of economic development was greater than that in the other periods.Provinces with a higher level of economic development basically have a higher multiplier of government consumption expenditure.
【作者单位】：西南财经大学统计学院;西南财经大学财税学院;
【基金】：教育部人文社科规划项目“地方政府视角下经济结构失衡的理论与经验研究”(15YJC790029) 中央高校基本科研业务专项资金资助项目“面板数据SVAR、SVARMA的计量分析方法及应用”(JBK1507099)
【分类号】：F812.45

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