地区财政收入预决算偏离的空间效应与影响因素研究——来自空间统计和空间面板计量模型的经验检验

发布时间：2018-04-11 15:20

本文选题：预决算收入偏离度 + 空间集聚效应　；参考：《北京师范大学学报(社会科学版)》2017年05期

【摘要】：多年来中国财政收入增速高于国内生产总值增速,财政收支预决算偏离度不断扩大,财政预算约束弱化。由于区域之间财政策略互动行为使空间溢出效应成为可能,可以将空间要素引入地区间预算管理,来检验地方政府预决算收入偏离度是否存在空间效应,以及具有空间集聚和空间辐射效应的地区分布情况及动态变化,从而探索政府效率与地区生产总值对预决算收入偏离的影响。利用空间统计和空间面板计量模型对中国大陆除西藏、港澳台外的30个省级政府面板数据进行实证检验发现:地方政府财政收入预决算偏差在中部地区间的差异高于东西部地区;地方政府财政收入预决算偏离存在显著空间集聚和辐射效应,其中"低—低"集聚地区逐渐从西南部向东南部推移,"高—高"集聚地区逐渐从东北部向中西部地区推移。在预决算偏离较小的沿海地区,以广东为中心的负向增长极带动周围地区降低预决算偏离度,而预决算偏离较大的东北部和中西部地区,以宁夏、陕西和内蒙古为中心的正向增长极带动周围地区扩大预决算偏离;地方政府效率对财政收入预决算偏离具有显著抑制作用,而地区生产总值与财政收入预决算偏离具有显著刺激作用,财政支出预决算偏离度对收入预决算偏离度具微弱影响。上述结论提供了如下政策含义:应完善预算管理体系,重视财政收入偏离度的空间效应,加强正向增长极地区预算约束,降低财政收入预决算偏离度;完善政府绩效评价体系,逐步降低GDP权重,提高政府效率指标权重;提高地方政府以改善民生为主的支出自主权,以降低由于决算支出低于预算支出造成的高支出偏离度。
[Abstract]:Over the years, China's fiscal revenue growth rate is higher than GDP growth, fiscal revenue and expenditure budget bias continues to expand, and fiscal budget constraints weaken.The spatial spillover effect can be made possible by the interaction of fiscal strategies between regions, so the spatial elements can be introduced into the inter-regional budget management to test whether there is spatial effect on the deviation degree of the local government's budget income.The regional distribution and dynamic changes with spatial agglomeration and spatial radiation effects are also discussed in order to explore the influence of government efficiency and regional GDP on the deviation of income from final accounts.Using spatial statistics and spatial panel metrology models,The empirical data of 30 provincial government panels outside Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan show that the difference between the central regions is higher than that in the eastern and western regions;There are significant spatial agglomeration and radiation effects in the local government budget deviation, in which the "low-low" agglomeration area is gradually moving from the southwest to the southeast, and the "high-high" concentration area is gradually moving from the northeast to the central and western regions.In coastal areas where the budget deviation is small, the negative growth pole with Guangdong as the center leads the surrounding areas to reduce the deviation of the budget, while the forecast deviates from the northeast and the central and western regions, with Ningxia as the center.The positive growth poles centered in Shaanxi and Inner Mongolia have led the surrounding areas to expand the deviation of budget accounts, and the efficiency of local governments has a significant inhibitory effect on the deviation of fiscal revenue estimates.However, the deviation between regional GDP and revenue budget has a significant stimulating effect, and the deviation degree of fiscal expenditure budget has a weak influence on the deviation of income budget.The above conclusions provide the following policy implications: we should improve the budget management system, attach importance to the spatial effect of fiscal revenue deviation, strengthen the budgetary constraints in the regions with positive growth poles, reduce the deviation degree of fiscal revenue forecast and final accounts, and perfect the government performance evaluation system.Gradually reduce the weight of GDP, improve the weight of government efficiency index, and improve the local government spending autonomy mainly to improve the people's livelihood, in order to reduce the high expenditure deviation caused by the final account expenditure is lower than the budget expenditure.
【作者单位】：北京师范大学政府管理学院;北京师范大学新兴市场研究院;
【基金】：北京市支持中央在京高校共建项目“公共管理重点学科建设”(2015—2016)
【分类号】：F812.3

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