基于KMV模型的地方政府债务适度规模测算

发布时间：2018-04-12 14:01

本文选题：地方政府债务 + KMV模型　；参考：《江西财经大学》2014年硕士论文

【摘要】：改革开放以来,我国经济建设取得了长足发展,城镇化水平进一步提升。各地方政府为了更好地履行社会职能,保障公共产品和服务的提供,纷纷通过举债的方式加大投资,地方政府债务规模日益增长。2008年金融危机以来,中央政府为了发展经济,提出了四万亿的投资计划,并要求地方政府提供配套资金。各地在财政资金匮乏的前提下,大规模地建立融资平台,用以筹措基础设施建设资金,弥补财政缺口。审计署2013年对全国政府性债务进行了摸底清查,结果显示,到2013年6月底,全国各级政府负有偿还责任的债务为20.70万亿元,其中地方政府层级负有偿还责任的债务为10.89万亿元。地方政府债务规模的不断膨胀,可能引发巨大的财政风险和金融风险,不利于经济发展和社会稳定。因此,对地方政府债务的适度规模进行研究具有重要的理论和现实意义。国内学者对我国地方政府债务规模的研究成果散见于各期刊杂志,但缺少对债务适度规模的系统深入研究。本文的主要目的是基于KMV模型测算不同口径的地方政府债务适度规模,以期为地方政府举债融资提供可参考的安全界限。首先是对地方政府债务进行科学界定和分类,分析其存在的理论依据及必要性。在此基础上,从债务层级、区域、主体、资金来源以及偿债压力五个角度对比分析我国30个省(市)地方政府债务规模现状,并简要概括了规模管理的现状及管理存在的问题。接下来是重点和难点部分,即基于KMV模型的实证分析,基本思路是将地方政府资产作为债务偿还的担保,债务到期时,若地方政府资产能够覆盖到期债务,则地方政府不形成违约；反之,地方政府形成违约。本文在实证分析过程中构建了三种模型,利用Matlab编程分别测算了2013—2015年违约概率0.42%条件下地方政府资产小口径、中口径和大口径所能覆盖的债务规模。在对实证结果进行分析时主要运用了比较分析法,将2013年各省(市)三种口径的实际债务规模与测算结果进行比较,全面客观地反映我国各省(市)的债务规模风险。研究结果显示,我国债务规模总体风险可控,但局部差异明显。越是发达的地区,对适度债务规模的利用率越小,债务风险也越小,存在继续举债融资的空间。全国30个省(市)中,贵州和重庆三种口径的实际债务规模均超出适度规模较多,蕴含了巨大的债务风险,应当引起高度重视,及时采取措施控制和减少债务规模,防范债务风险。本文最后从四个角度提出了有效控制债务规模的政策建议：完善地方税体系、完善转移支付制度、建立债务风险预警机制以及其他配套措施,具体包括理顺政府与市场的关系、转换绩效考评机制、加强债务预算管理以及完善资金筹集机制。
[Abstract]:Since the reform and opening up, China's economic construction has made considerable progress, the level of urbanization further improved.In order to better perform their social functions and guarantee the provision of public goods and services, local governments have increased their investment through borrowing, and the scale of local government debt has been increasing day by day. Since the 2008 financial crisis, the central government has been developing the economy.Proposed 4 trillion investment plan, and asked the local government to provide the supporting fund.On the premise of lack of financial funds, all localities set up financing platform on a large scale to raise funds for infrastructure construction and make up the financial gap.The audit commission conducted a survey of government debts nationwide in 2013. The results showed that by the end of June 2013, the national governments at all levels had 20.7 trillion yuan of debt to repay, of which 10.89 trillion yuan were owed by local government levels.The continuous expansion of local government debt may lead to huge financial and financial risks, which is not conducive to economic development and social stability.Therefore, it is of great theoretical and practical significance to study the appropriate scale of local government debt.The domestic scholars' research on the scale of local government debt in China is scattered in various journals, but it lacks a systematic and in-depth study on the moderate scale of debt.The main purpose of this paper is to calculate the appropriate scale of local government debt with different calibre based on KMV model, in order to provide a reference safe limit for local government debt financing.Firstly, it defines and classifies the local government debt scientifically, and analyzes the theoretical basis and necessity of its existence.On this basis, the present situation of debt scale of 30 provinces (cities) in China is compared and analyzed from five angles of debt level, region, main body, source of funds and debt service pressure, and the present situation and problems of scale management are briefly summarized.Then it is the key and difficult part, that is, the empirical analysis based on KMV model, the basic idea is to take the local government assets as the guarantee of debt repayment, when the debt is due, if the local government assets can cover the maturing debt,Then the local government does not form default; conversely, the local government forms default.This paper constructs three models in the process of empirical analysis and calculates the debt scale of local government assets with small caliber, medium caliber and large caliber under the condition of the probability of default between 2013 and 2015 under the condition of Matlab programming.In the analysis of the empirical results, we mainly use the comparative analysis method to compare the actual debt scale of each province (city) in 2013 with the calculated results, and to reflect comprehensively and objectively the risk of debt scale of each province (city) in our country.The results show that the overall risk of debt scale in China is controllable, but the local differences are obvious.The more developed areas, the smaller the utilization of moderate debt scale, the smaller debt risk, there is room to continue borrowing financing.Among the 30 provinces (cities) in the country, Guizhou and Chongqing all have more actual debt scales than the moderate ones, which contain huge debt risks and should be highly valued, and measures should be taken to control and reduce the debt scale in a timely manner.Guard against debt risk.Finally, the paper puts forward some policy suggestions for controlling debt scale from four angles: perfecting local tax system, perfecting transfer payment system, establishing debt risk warning mechanism and other supporting measures, including straightening out the relationship between government and market.Change performance appraisal mechanism, strengthen debt budget management and improve fund raising mechanism.
【学位授予单位】：江西财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F812.5;F224

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