我国地方政府性债务信用风险规范问题研究

发布时间：2018-04-29 18:52

本文选题：地方政府 + 地方政府性债务　；参考：《广西大学》2014年硕士论文

【摘要】：美国金融危机对全球经济造成较大影响,近几年欧洲债务危机频现,以及我国持续实施积极的财政政策,中央与地方政府投入大量配套资金拉动经济,造成我国地方政府性债务增速惊人。面对日益增长的地方政府性债务规模,人们产生对我国地方政府性债务风险可控性的担忧,甚至部分学者提出我国地方政府性债务风险已经失控,随时可能爆发危机。因此,加快建立地方政府性债务管理体制,将地方政府发债真正全面纳入预算与监管范畴势在必行。由于过去我国对地方政府发债规模统计口径不一,本文首先对地方政府性债务的概念进行界定,并对地方政府债务风险相关理论进行梳理,进而分析我国地方政府发债现状,发现我国地方政府性债务总量基本可控,但内在结构复杂,主要表现在：负有偿还责任债务增长过快；部分地区债务负担重；对土地收入依赖较重；举债过程依然存在诸多违规行为。这些问题的出现归结于制度和管理两层面,制度因素在于分税体制过程中中央与地方政府财权事权不匹配,管理因素则是政府举债过程管理制度建设落后,导致违规现象普遍,债务利用率低。本文还试图从定量分析角度提出规范我国地方政府性债务信用风险的指标控制体系,利用企业信用风险测量工具KMV模型测度地方政府债务违约概率,预测我国未来地方政府性债务状况,并提出规范地方政府发债的合理规模。最后,在总结国际上多国地方政府发债经验的基础上,针对于我国地方政府性债务的具体情况,提出完善地方政府性债务风险的体制制度建设总思路,并从事前、事中以及事后三阶段提出规范和约束我国地方政府发债的具体措施与优化建议。
[Abstract]:The financial crisis in the United States has had a great impact on the global economy. In recent years, the European debt crisis has occurred frequently, as well as our country has continued to implement active fiscal policies, and the central and local governments have invested a large amount of supporting funds to stimulate the economy. Cause our country local government debt growth rate is astonishing. In the face of the increasing scale of local government debt, people worry about the controllability of the risk of local government debt in China. Some scholars even suggest that the risk of local government debt is out of control, and a crisis may break out at any time. Therefore, it is imperative to speed up the establishment of local government debt management system and bring local government debt issue into budget and supervision. Because the statistics of local government bond issuance scale in the past are different, this paper firstly defines the concept of local government debt, combs the related theory of local government debt risk, and then analyzes the present situation of local government debt issuance in China. It is found that the total amount of local government debt in China is basically controllable, but the internal structure is complex, which is mainly manifested in the following aspects: the growth of debt with repayment responsibility is too fast, the debt burden in some regions is heavy, the dependence on land income is heavy; There are still many irregularities in the borrowing process. The emergence of these problems is attributed to the two levels of system and management. The institutional factor lies in the mismatch between the central and local governments' financial rights and rights in the process of tax-sharing system, while the management factor is the backwardness of the construction of the management system in the process of government borrowing, which leads to widespread irregularities. Debt utilization is low. This paper also attempts to propose an index control system to standardize the credit risk of local government debt from the angle of quantitative analysis, and to measure the probability of default of local government debt by using the KMV model of enterprise credit risk measurement tool. This paper predicts the future situation of local government debt in China, and puts forward the reasonable scale of regulating local government debt issuance. Finally, on the basis of summing up the international experience of local government bond issuance in many countries, aiming at the concrete situation of local government debt in China, this paper puts forward the general idea of perfecting the institutional system construction of local government debt risk, The concrete measures and optimization suggestions to regulate and restrain the issuance of bonds by local governments in China are put forward in the following three stages.
【学位授予单位】：广西大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F812.5

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