1990年以来日本财政政策的非凯恩斯效应研究

发布时间：2018-04-30 03:12

本文选题：非凯恩斯效应 + 财政支出　；参考：《辽宁大学》2016年硕士论文

【摘要】：日本政府自20世纪90年代以来为了促进经济的发展,主要是运用了凯恩斯主义理论,日本政府企图使用刺激性的财政政策促使本国经济能够实现短期快速发展,在实施了许多以公共事业支出为核心的扩张性的财政政策同时,还采取了扩张性货币政策来配合财政政策的落实,例如增加货币的供应量以及降低存贷款利率水平等。宫泽喜一内阁在1992年8月就首次实施了“综合经济对策”,其规模达到了10.7兆日元,之后的日本历届政府纷纷效仿宫泽喜一内阁。到目前为止,日本政府先后共推出了近20次类似的经济刺激政策,日本政府的财政收支规模达到了惊人的200兆日元左右。进入21世纪以来,历届政府都采取了相应的财政政策和货币政策以刺激经济增长,但是经济增长率一直在1%左右徘徊,日本经济已经失去了25年。并不否认,日本政府实施的扩张性财政政策对于经济的反周期调节起到了至关重要的作用,使得日本经济的萎缩能够在一定程度上得到抑制。然而,日本的经济和财政之间并没有在经济持续低迷的情况下出现经济增长拉动财政与财政增长拉动经济增长的良好的循环,日本最终也不得不面临财政困境与经济低迷的双重困境。日本政府财政健全的实现在人口老龄化加剧和长期的低迷经济增长的条件下并不被人们所看好。这主要是因为日本政府采用了错误的指导理论以及采取了许多不合理的政策工具。本文首先对日本政府自20世纪90年代以来实施的财政政策作了简要的梳理,然后分析了日本政府财政收支的变化情况和政府财政对债务的以来依赖,日本政府债务余额的攀升加剧了财政危机的困境。最后利用模型对日本政府的财政政策的非凯恩斯效应进行实证分析,通过实证分析可以得出非凯恩斯效应在长期内是存在的,政府实施的扩张政策阻碍了民间消费、民间投资和进出口的增长。日本政府的财政政策之所以存在非凯恩斯效应,是有着深刻原因的,包括：公共投资结构僵化、未来经济预期、市场需求潜力下降、日元升值等。希望对日本财政政策效果的分析,能够对中国政府的财政政策的运用有一定的启示作用。
[Abstract]:Since the 1990s, in order to promote economic development, the Japanese government has mainly used Keynesian theory. The Japanese government has attempted to use stimulative fiscal policies to promote the rapid development of its economy in the short term. At the same time, expansionary monetary policy has been adopted to coordinate with the implementation of fiscal policy, such as increasing the money supply and lowering the interest rate of deposit and loan. Miyazawa Kiichi's cabinet first implemented a "comprehensive economic response" in August 1992, with a scale of 10.7 trillion yen, followed by successive Japanese governments following Mr. Miyazawa Kiichi's cabinet. So far, the Japanese government has launched nearly 20 similar stimulus policies, the government's fiscal revenue and expenditure has reached an astonishing size of about 200 trillion yen. Since the beginning of the 21st century, successive governments have adopted corresponding fiscal and monetary policies to stimulate economic growth, but the economic growth rate has been hovering around 1%, and the Japanese economy has lost its economy for 25 years. It is not denied that the expansionary fiscal policy implemented by the Japanese government has played a vital role in countercyclical adjustment of the economy, so that the contraction of the Japanese economy can be restrained to a certain extent. However, there has not been a good cycle between economic growth and fiscal growth in Japan when the economy is still in the doldrums. In the end, Japan also had to face the dual dilemma of fiscal distress and economic downturn. The realization of the Japanese government's fiscal soundness is not appreciated under the condition of the aging population and the long period of sluggish economic growth. This is mainly because the Japanese government has adopted the wrong guiding theory and many unreasonable policy tools. This paper first makes a brief analysis of the fiscal policies implemented by the Japanese government since the 1990s, and then analyzes the changes in the Japanese government's fiscal revenue and expenditure and its dependence on debt. The rising balance of Japanese government debt has exacerbated the financial crisis. Finally, using the model to analyze the non-Keynesian effect of the Japanese government's fiscal policy, it can be concluded that the non-Keynesian effect exists in the long run, and the government's expansionary policy hinders private consumption. Private investment and growth in imports and exports. There are profound reasons for the non-Keynesian effect in the Japanese government's fiscal policy, including the rigid structure of public investment, future economic expectations, declining market demand potential, and the appreciation of the yen. It is hoped that the analysis of the effect of Japanese fiscal policy can enlighten the application of Chinese government's fiscal policy.
【学位授予单位】：辽宁大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2016
【分类号】：F813.13

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