我国地区财政幻觉指数测算及影响因素研究——基于MIMIC模型方法

发布时间：2018-05-06 10:47

  本文选题：财政幻觉 + 地区财政幻觉指数　； 参考：《财政研究》2016年10期

【摘要】：财政幻觉是世界各国(地区)普遍存在的一个经济现象。本文在对财政幻觉内涵重新界定的基础上,首次分析了我国地区财政幻觉的影响因素,采用MIMIC模型测算了我国30个地区2006-2013年的财政幻觉指数,结果表明:我国各地区财政幻觉指数呈逐年下降趋势,其中,西部地区最高,中部地区次之,东部地区最低,各地区财政幻觉指数与人均GDP显著负相关。研究还发现,地方财政负担水平、间接税占比、税收HHI指数、自我就业率、教育水平和CPI指数是影响地区财政幻觉的主要因素,而较高的财政幻觉则不利于财政透明度的提升。因此,政府应降低财政负担,优化政府支出结构,改革完善税制结构,鼓励个体和私营经济发展,提高居民受教育水平,以减缓财政幻觉的负面效应,增强居民财税意识,提高政府财政透明度。
[Abstract]:Financial illusion is a common economic phenomenon in all countries and regions in the world. On the basis of the redefinition of the connotation of financial illusion, this paper first analyzes the factors affecting the financial illusion in China, and uses the MIMIC model to calculate the financial illusion index of 30 regions in China for 2006-2013 years. The result shows that the financial hallucinations of various regions in China refer to the financial hallucinations. The number shows a declining trend year by year, of which the western region is the highest, the central region is the second, the eastern region is the lowest. The financial hallucination index of each region is negatively correlated with the per capita GDP. It is also found that the local financial burden level, the indirect tax account ratio, the tax HHI index, the self employment rate, the education level and the CPI index are the main factors affecting the regional financial illusion. The higher financial illusion is not conducive to the promotion of financial transparency. Therefore, the government should reduce the financial burden, optimize the structure of the government expenditure, reform and improve the structure of the tax system, encourage the development of the individual and private economy, improve the education level of the residents, slow down the negative effects of the financial illusion, enhance the residents' consciousness of fiscal and tax, and improve the transparency of the government finance.

【作者单位】： 中南财经政法大学财政税务学院;兰州财经大学财税与公共管理学院;
【分类号】：F812
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本文编号：1852009