欧元区主权债务危机：最优货币区理论再思考与实证

发布时间：2018-05-08 03:07

本文选题：欧元区 + 主权债务危机　；参考：《上海社会科学院》2014年博士论文

【摘要】：欧元区主权债务危机似乎成了欧元研究的分水岭。危机爆发之前,学者们将欧元区作为最优货币区理论的最佳实践结果,通过其运行数据来说明单一货币对货币区的促进作用。然而,危机爆发后,对欧元区的悲观态度几乎立即取代了之前的乐观态度。认为欧元的实验已宣告失败,欧元区成员国间难以弥合的经济差距会使欧元区最终走向解体,认为欧盟已衰落的观点比比皆是。实际上,主权债务危机并没有能够阻止欧元区的扩大进程,爱沙尼亚、拉脱维亚分别在危机中和危机平息后加入欧元区,立陶宛则计划于2015年加入。可见,欧元区的吸引力并没有因债务危机而明显下降。那么,应该如何客观的理解欧元区主权债务危机对欧元区的影响,欧元区在今后的运行中又如何维持平稳运行,欧元区的发展前景如何,本文将围绕这些问题展开研究。本文认为,应将欧元区主权债务危机置于欧洲一体化的进程中考虑,而债务危机的本质应从最优货币区理论的深度去探索。本文首先通过对最优货币区理论的梳理,和欧元同最优货币区理论关系的分析,得出单一货币区收益大于成本的条件,即货币区稳定运行的条件,是要么成员国间经济对称以减少不对称冲击,要么建立缓冲机制以完成必要的宏观经济调整进而应对不对称冲击。在此基础上,本文对欧元区主权债务危机进行回顾,指出债务危机的本质是主权国家组成的单一货币区没有满足上述成本大于收益的条件,经济趋同性不足导致欧元区遭受不对称冲击,劳动力流动有限和缺乏财政转移使其无法完成宏观调整,导致债务危机不断蔓延和升级。接下来的实证检验从内生性趋同效应的角度验证了趋同性不足的判断。作为趋同性不足的后果,本文随后分析了不对称冲击对欧元区运行的影响,并运用VAR模型对金融危机给欧元区造成的不对称冲击进行了实证检验,分析了外部冲击下成员国不对称反应导致货币区运行成本放大并陷入危机的机理。最后,通过对财政一体化和银行业联盟的分析,本文指出欧盟进行的政策调整有利于欧元区的平稳运行,在改革驱动和内生趋同的共同作用下,随着欧元区不断靠近最优货币区的目标,其运行成本会下降。
[Abstract]:The euro zone sovereign debt crisis seems to be a watershed in euro research. Prior to the crisis, scholars used the euro zone as the best practice of the theory of optimal currency areas, using its data to illustrate the contribution of the single currency to the currency area. After the crisis, however, pessimism about the euro zone almost immediately replaced previous optimism. Views abound that the euro's experiment has failed and that the unbridled economic gap among euro zone members will eventually lead to a break-up of the euro zone. In fact, the sovereign debt crisis did not stop the euro zone from expanding, with Estonia and Latvia joining the euro zone in the middle of the crisis and after the crisis subsided, while Lithuania plans to join in 2015. Clearly, the euro zone's attractiveness has not been significantly reduced by the debt crisis. So, how to objectively understand the impact of the euro zone sovereign debt crisis on the euro zone, how to maintain a smooth operation of the euro zone in the future, and what the future of the euro zone development prospects, this paper will focus on these issues. This paper holds that the euro zone sovereign debt crisis should be considered in the process of European integration, and the nature of the debt crisis should be explored from the depth of the optimal currency area theory. Firstly, by combing the theory of the optimal currency area and analyzing the relationship between the euro and the theory of the optimal currency area, the paper obtains the condition that the profit of the single currency area is greater than the cost, that is, the condition of the stable operation of the currency area. It is either economic symmetry among member countries to reduce asymmetric shocks, or a buffer mechanism to complete the necessary macroeconomic adjustment to deal with asymmetric shocks. On this basis, this paper reviews the euro zone sovereign debt crisis, and points out that the essence of the debt crisis is that the single currency area composed of sovereign countries does not meet the above conditions that the cost is greater than the benefit. The lack of economic convergence has caused asymmetric shocks to the euro zone, limited labour flows and a lack of fiscal transfers have prevented it from completing macroeconomic adjustments, leading to the spread and escalation of the debt crisis. The next empirical test from the point of view of endogenous convergence effect to verify the lack of convergence judgment. As a consequence of the lack of convergence, this paper then analyzes the impact of asymmetric shocks on the operation of the euro zone, and uses the VAR model to empirically test the asymmetric impact of the financial crisis on the euro zone. This paper analyzes the mechanism of asymmetric reaction of member countries under external shock, which results in the enlargement of operation cost of currency area and the crisis. Finally, through the analysis of fiscal integration and banking union, this paper points out that the policy adjustment carried out by the European Union is conducive to the smooth operation of the euro zone, under the joint role of reform drive and endogenous convergence. As the euro zone moves closer to the goal of an optimal currency area, its operating costs will fall.
【学位授予单位】：上海社会科学院
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F815

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