国债与经济增长的关系探析

发布时间：2018-05-08 12:45

本文选题：格兰杰因果检验 + 挤出效应　；参考：《西南财经大学》2014年硕士论文

【摘要】：国债理论最初是从西方发展而来,经过资本主义的渲染而逐渐兴盛。从17世纪开始,西方就开始对国债理论进行研究,但是直到20世纪30年代的全球经济危机,西方才认识到国债可以作为财政政策的一种工具,通过扩张性财政政策摆脱经济危机。从那时起,国债伴随着凯恩斯干预主义的发展而日渐受到西方政府的亲睐,把它作为促进和稳定经济的工具。而国债在我国的历史并不悠久,在1950年,我国首次发行“人民胜利折实公债”,在1954年到1958年间,又发行了“国家建设公债”。但是之后的年度里,我国处于无国债时期。直到1981年,我国随着经济体制改革,才又重新开始发行国债,此时的国债只是作为弥补财政收入的手段,它的作用并未被积极看待。随着经济建设如火如荼的开展,基础设施建设,社会需求,货币信贷等急剧扩张,财政赤字不断扩大,此时出现了严重经济过热,通货膨胀的现象。1993年之后,我国陆续出台了《中国人民银行法》和《预算法》来约束央行的透支行为,规定财政赤字不得通过货币发行来弥补,国债发行额也随之攀升。据统计,从1998年到2007年这10年间,我国累计发行长期建设国债11000亿元。这些国债的投入方向主要有基础设施建设,关键技术创新,科教文卫等领域,为我国的社会主义经济建设铺平了道路。2008年,美国次贷危机爆发,我国经济受此影响,出现了衰退。为了重振经济,我国政府实行了积极的财政政策,并投入四万亿救市。这部分资金除了来自中央和地方的预算内财政收入外,还有就是通过发行国债来弥补的。但是这样大规模的国债增长也引起了学术界关于国债额度管理以及可持续性的关注。在这样的大背景下,学术界以及决策部门开始关心以下问题：国债是否会引发财政风险；国债的发行对利率的影响是怎样的,会不会出现对民间消费与投资的挤出效应；当期的国债额度是否会成为后代人的负担；国债的使用到底对经济的影响是怎样的?是促进其发展还是抑制了它的发展等诸如此类的问题需要理论与实务界悉心研究,得出符合实际情况的结论,并提出有针对性的政策建议。本文便是在这样的背景下开始了国债问题的研究。本文的研究意义在于以下几点：首先,从理论意义上来说,公共财政的作用就是维护国家安全,保障国家经济的平稳发展以及促进社会公平。市场自身存在失灵的可能,而财政的职能就是弥补市场的失灵。由于市场没有自行趋向经济持续稳定的机制,因此客观上需要政府的经济调节。而国家在行使职责时,需要大量的资金,这些资金主要来源于财政收入。如果政府职能不断扩大,那么对资金的需求将继续增加,增长的财政需求就会出现财政赤字。弥补财政赤字的方式可以通过增加税收,增发货币或者发行国债。但是,税收的增长应该和国家的经济发展状况相一致,尤其在经济衰退的时期,更没有增加税收的空间,如果是通过增发货币来弥补赤字,又会引起通货膨胀。而通过发行国债来弥补赤字,只是转移了社会资金的使用权,既不会使纳税人感到税收压力,也不会引起货币量的激增。在经济不景气时,通过国债聚集来的资金可以作为积极财政政策的工具,启动经济发展。在经济繁荣时,国债可以改变投入侧重点,作用于产业升级和经济可持续性发展。既然国债成为了财政收入的一项重要来源,那么通过研究国债对经济的效应以及作用机制,就可以为财政理论的进一步扩展和丰富提供依据,也为国债的管理政策提出建议。其次,从现实意义上来说,自从1981年我国实行经济体制改革,财政开始出现赤字,政府开始通过发行国债来弥补赤字。随后,1998年的亚洲金融危机,使我国经济出现衰退,内需严重不足。为了刺激经济增长,政府采取了积极的财政政策,有效地抑制了经济的继续下滑,并且带动了经济的健康发展。2008年,由美国次贷危机引发的全球经济危机爆发,我国经济再次受到冲击,经济的萎靡急需政府使用积极财政政策来刺激经济增长。国债再次成为理论与实务界关注的重点。在这种背景下,研究国债对经济的效应将显示出重大的实际意义。这种意义又体现在,找到国债与经济之间的作用机制,指导国债的投向；弄清楚最佳国债规模,使国债的使用效率达到最高；以我国的实际数据为基础,进行实证研究,了解我国国债的现行状况,找到我国国债进一步改进的有效途径,使其更好地为我国经济发展与结构调整做出贡献。本文的研究思路大致是以“理论分析”——“实证检验”——“政策建议”的思路进行的。首先在介绍国债概念的基础之上,区分了国债与公债之间的概念差别,并介绍了国债与税收之间的关系,以此来说明国债和税收同为财政收入手段之间的不同。接下来,本文重点介绍了经济增长理论的相关知识以及我国经济增长的相关因素分析,意图从经济增长的因素分析中找到国债与经济增长之间的间接关系,也为后文研究国债与经济增长因素之间的关系打下基础。随后,本文研究了国债对经济增长的作用机制,通过分析这种机制,目的是找到国债是怎样影响经济增长的,也为后文的实证研究奠定理论基础。本文的结构框架如下：第一节是绪论,主要介绍选题的背景以及研究的意义,以及文本的创新与不足之处,文章的写作方法以及国内外关于国债与经济增长的文献综述。第二节是国债概念的介绍以及国内外国债发展的历史。第三节是本文理论的核心部分,介绍了国债对经济增长的作用机制。分别从经济增长因素的分析,财政支出理论的分析,国债发行对经济的影响以及国债投入对经济的影响几个方面进行论述,其中国债投入对经济的影响又具体分为对投资、消费、劳动力、技术、经济结构以及对税收的平滑作用来阐述。这样就达到了层层递进,抽丝剥茧的效果,最终还原国债与经济增长之间的真正作用机制。第四节是本文的实证检验部分,通过建立GDP、投资、消费、人力资本以及国债之间的向量自回归模型,检验了我国国债对经济增长的直接效果。第五节本文的最后部分是政策建议,通过上文的分析,最后总结出笔者对于我国国债相关问题的建议。本文的不足之处主要体现在两点：一是实证检验部分没有做出国债对利率影响的分析。二是没有探讨国债的风险。针对我国国债目前的水平,本文没有深入研究我国国债是否存在财务风险。本文的写作方法为：一、理论研究结合实证研究。本文综合了财政学、金融学、经济增长等相关理论,并且使用了多项计量经济学方法,如VAR模型、脉冲响应函数,格兰杰因果检验等,用我国的具体数据对国债的经济效应进行实证分析。二、实证研究结合规范研究。本文实证研究得出了我国国债与经济增长的关系,并在此结论的基础上,提出了针对我国国情的政策建议。三、比较研究。在理论分析部分,本文从国外国债理论的相关研究出发,结合我国具体情况,对比研究了国债在中外两地的发展演变,吸收借鉴国外的先进理论与经验。
[Abstract]:The theory of national debt was first developed from the West and flourished through the rendering of capitalism. Since seventeenth Century, the West began to study the theory of national debt. But until the global economic crisis in 1930s, the West realized that the Treasury bonds could be used as a tool for fiscal policy and get rid of the expansionary fiscal policy. From then on, with the development of Keynes's intervention, the national debt was increasingly favored by the western government as a tool for promoting and stabilizing the economy. The national debt was not long in China's history. In 1950, China issued the "people's victory in the public debt" for the first time, and from 1954 to 1958, it issued the "national construction". But in the following year, China was in the period of no national debt. Until 1981, China began to issue treasury bonds again with the reform of the economic system. At this time, the national debt was only used as a means to make up for the financial income. Its role was not considered actively. With the development of the economy, infrastructure construction and social needs. With the rapid expansion of money and credit and the expansion of the fiscal deficit, the phenomenon of serious economic overheating and inflation has occurred at this time. After.1993 years, China has introduced the people's Bank of China Law and the budget law to restrain the overdraft of the central bank, which stipulates that the fiscal deficit will not be made up by the currency issue, and the issuance of national debt is also rising. Statistics, in the 10 years from 1998 to 2007, China has issued a cumulative total of 11000 billion yuan of long-term construction treasury bonds. The investment direction of these treasury bonds mainly includes infrastructure construction, key technological innovation, science and education, culture and health, etc., which paved the way for the construction of our country's socialist economy in.2008 years, the American subprime crisis broke out, and the economy of our country was affected by this effect. In order to revive the economy, our government has implemented a positive fiscal policy and put into the four trillion bailout. This part of the fund is made up of the Treasury bonds issued by the central and local budgets, but also by issuing treasury bonds. Sustainability concerns.
In this context, the academia and the decision-making departments begin to care about the following issues: whether the Treasury bonds will cause financial risks; what is the effect of the issuance of national debt on interest rates and whether there will be an extrude effect on private consumption and investment; whether the current amount of national debt will become a burden for future generations; the use of national debt is exactly right. What is the influence of the economy? Is it to promote its development or to restrain its development and so on, such as it needs to be studied in theory and practice, draw conclusions that conform to the actual situation, and put forward pertinent policy suggestions. This paper begins with the study of the issue of national debt.
The significance of this study lies in the following points:
First, from the theoretical point of view, the role of public finance is to safeguard national security, ensure the smooth development of the state economy and promote social fairness. The market itself is out of order, and the function of the finance is to make up for the failure of the market. If the government functions constantly, the demand for funds will continue to increase, and the financial demand for growth will appear in the financial deficit. The way to make up the deficit can be made by increasing tax revenue, issuing money or sending it. However, the growth of the tax should be consistent with the state's economic development, especially in the period of economic recession, not to increase the space for tax revenue. If it is to make up the deficit by adding money to make up the deficit, it will cause inflation. The taxpayers feel that the tax pressure does not cause a surge in the amount of money. In the economic downturn, the funds gathered through the Treasury bonds can be used as a tool for active fiscal policy to start economic development. In the economic boom, the national debt can change the focus of investment and play a role in the upgrading of the industry and the sustainable development of the economy. Since the national debt has become a wealth. As an important source of political income, the study of the effect of national debt on the economy and its mechanism of action can provide a basis for further expansion and enrichment of financial theory, and also provide suggestions for the management policy of national debt.
Secondly, in practical sense, since the economic system reform was implemented in China in 1981, the fiscal deficit was beginning to appear, and the government began to make up the deficit by issuing treasury bonds. Then, the Asian financial crisis in 1998 resulted in the recession of our economy and the serious shortage of domestic demand. In order to stimulate the economic growth, the government has adopted a positive fiscal policy, which is effective. It has suppressed the continuing decline of the economy and led to the healthy development of the economy in.2008 years. The global economic crisis caused by the United States subprime mortgage crisis broke out, the economy of our country was once again hit and the economy was in urgent need of the government to use the active fiscal policy to stimulate the economic growth. The government bonds again became the focus of the theoretical and practical circles. In the background, it is of great practical significance to study the effect of national debt on the economy. This significance is also embodied in finding the mechanism between national debt and economy, guiding the investment of national debt, making clear the scale of the best national debt, making the use efficiency of the national debt to the highest; taking the actual data of our country as the basis, carrying out empirical research and understanding our country The current situation of the national debt is to find an effective way to further improve our national debt, so as to make better contribution to China's economic development and structural adjustment.
The idea of this paper is mainly based on the idea of "theoretical analysis" - "empirical test" - "policy suggestion". First, on the basis of introducing the concept of national debt, it distinguishes the conceptual difference between national debt and public debt, and introduces the relationship between national debt and tax, in order to show that the national debt and tax are the same as the fiscal revenue. Then, this paper focuses on the related knowledge of the economic growth theory and the analysis of the related factors of economic growth in China. It is intended to find the indirect relationship between the national debt and economic growth from the analysis of the factors of economic growth, and to lay a foundation for the relationship between the national debt and the economic growth factors in the later study. This paper studies the mechanism of the effect of national debt on economic growth. Through the analysis of this mechanism, the purpose is to find out how the national debt is to affect economic growth, and to lay a theoretical foundation for the empirical study of the latter.
The structural framework of this article is as follows:
The first section is the introduction, which mainly introduces the background of the topic and the significance of the research, the innovation and deficiency of the text, the writing method of the article and the literature review on the national and foreign debt and economic growth at home and abroad.
The second section introduces the concept of national debt and the history of domestic foreign debt development.
The third section, the core of the theory, introduces the mechanism of the effect of national debt on economic growth, including the analysis of the factors of economic growth, the analysis of the theory of fiscal expenditure, the impact of the issuance of national debt on the economy and the impact of the investment of national debt on the economy. The impact of the investment of Chinese debt on the economy is also specifically divided into the investment of the investment. Capital, consumption, labor, technology, economic structure, and the smooth effect of tax on taxation. This has achieved the effect of progressive progressive, unyielding and ultimately reducing the real mechanism between national debt and economic growth.
The fourth section is the empirical test part of this paper. By establishing the vector autoregressive model between GDP, investment, consumption, human capital and national debt, the direct effect of China's national debt on economic growth is tested.
The fifth section, the last part of this paper, is policy recommendations. Through the above analysis, I finally summarize the author's suggestions on the related issues of China's national debt.
The inadequacies of this paper are mainly reflected in two points: first, the empirical test part does not make an analysis of the effect of national debt on the interest rate. Two is the risk of no discussion of the national debt.
The writing methods of this paper are: first, theoretical research combined with empirical research. This paper combines the theories of finance, finance, economic growth and so on, and uses a number of econometrics methods, such as VAR model, impulse response function, Grainger causality test and so on. The economic effect of national debt is empirically analyzed with the specific data of our country. Two, In this paper, the relationship between national debt and economic growth is obtained. On the basis of this conclusion, the paper puts forward the policy suggestions for China's national conditions. Three, comparative study. In the theoretical analysis part, this article from the relevant research on foreign debt theory, combined with the specific situation of our country, compared the national debt research. The development and evolution of China and foreign countries draw on the advanced theories and experiences from other countries.

【学位授予单位】：西南财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F812.5;F124.1

【参考文献】