北京市公共支出规模与经济增长关系的实证研究

发布时间：2018-05-11 17:30

本文选题：公共支出规模 + 居民消费　；参考：《首都经济贸易大学》2014年硕士论文

【摘要】：政府公共支出与经济增长的关系一直是宏观经济研究的重要领域。而市场自身的特性导致外部性、公共物品、信息不对称以及垄断等这样的状态时常存在，因此政府干预市场的行为具有必然性。公共支出行为是政府对国家或地区进行宏观调控的重要手段，政府公共支出的总量和占GDP比重是政府作用市场的程度的体现。公共支出的规模过小，对经济增长促进作用不明显，规模过大又会抑制经济增长。因此，探求公共支出对经济增长的影响机制，确定国家或地区公共支出的最优规模，将有利于发挥公共支出对经济增长的促进作用。本文在总结已有的研究成果的基础上，构建一个理论分析框架，用于研究公共支出规模与经济增长关系。分别从支出视角和供给视角两个方向考察二者的关系。从支出视角看，政府公共支出会通过拉动居民消费和促进私人投资从而推动经济增长；从供给视角看，公共支出能提供资本、增加人力、提供制度支持以及推动技术进步这四方面来拉动经济增长。按照理论分析的框架，选取北京市作为研究对象，利用联立方程组的计量方法，分析公共支出对经济增长的整体效应。通过分析得出：北京市公共支出对经济增长的整体效应自1982年起表现为促进效应，在2010年的贡献率最大，此后有所下降。构建可变参数模型对北京市公共支出的居民消费、私人投资以及技术进步效应进行分析，能发现历年北京市公共支出对三者的贡献率，结果表明，1994年以后，北京市公共支出对三者的效应表现为正向的拉动和促进作用。进一步构建SVAR模型分别对公共支出、居民消费与经济增长的动态效应，公共支出、私人投资与经济增长的动态效应，以及公共支出、技术进步与经济增长的动态效应进行分析，亦说明公共支出对居民消费、私人投资、技术进步以及经济增长的变动具有较大的贡献，这也验证了本文提出的理论分析框架中，公共支出规模对经济增长的影响路径是存在的。本文对北京市最优公共支出规模进行测算，，发现北京市最优公共支出规模为占GDP比重20.8%，而目前北京市公共支出规模为占GDP的26.8%，公共支出规模过大。最后，基于理论和实证的研究结果，并结合北京市自身情况和特点，提出了北京市政府应加快政府职能的转变，同时注重优化政府支出规模，充分发挥市场机制的决定性作用，优化科研成果转化为生产力的路径，积极推进金融体制创新，调整收入分配等政策建议，进一步优化公共支出规模和充分发挥公共支出对经济增长的促进作用。
[Abstract]:The relationship between government public expenditure and economic growth has been an important area of macroeconomic research. The characteristics of the market itself lead to externality, public goods, information asymmetry and monopoly, and so on, so government intervention in the market is inevitable. The behavior of public expenditure is an important means for the government to carry out macro-control over the country or region. The total amount of government public expenditure and its proportion to GDP are the embodiment of the degree of government acting on the market. The scale of public expenditure is too small to promote economic growth. Therefore, to explore the influence mechanism of public expenditure on economic growth and determine the optimal scale of national or regional public expenditure will be beneficial to play the role of public expenditure in promoting economic growth. On the basis of summarizing the existing research results, this paper constructs a theoretical analysis framework to study the relationship between the scale of public expenditure and economic growth. From the perspective of expenditure and the perspective of supply to examine the relationship between the two. From the point of view of expenditure, government public expenditure can boost economic growth by stimulating consumption of residents and promoting private investment. From the perspective of supply, public expenditure can provide capital and increase manpower. To provide institutional support and promote technological progress in these four areas to stimulate economic growth. According to the framework of theoretical analysis, Beijing is selected as the object of study, and the econometric method of simultaneous equations is used to analyze the overall effect of public expenditure on economic growth. It is concluded that the overall effect of public expenditure on economic growth in Beijing has been positive since 1982, and the contribution rate was the largest in 2010, and then declined. A variable parameter model is constructed to analyze the effects of residents' consumption, private investment and technological progress of Beijing's public expenditure, and the contribution rate of Beijing's public expenditure to the three over the years can be found. The results show that, after 1994, The effect of Beijing public expenditure on the three is positive pull and promotion. The dynamic effects of public expenditure, resident consumption and economic growth, the dynamic effects of public expenditure, private investment and economic growth, as well as the dynamic effects of public expenditure, technological progress and economic growth are further analyzed by SVAR model. It also shows that public expenditure has a great contribution to the changes of consumption, private investment, technological progress and economic growth, which also proves the theoretical analysis framework proposed in this paper. The influence of the scale of public expenditure on economic growth is there. This paper calculates the scale of Beijing's optimal public expenditure, and finds that the optimal scale of Beijing's public expenditure accounts for 20.8% of GDP, while at present the scale of Beijing's public expenditure is 26.8% of GDP, and the scale of public expenditure is too large. Finally, based on the theoretical and empirical research results, combined with Beijing's own situation and characteristics, the paper puts forward that the Beijing municipal government should speed up the transformation of government functions, at the same time, pay attention to optimize the scale of government expenditure, give full play to the decisive role of the market mechanism. We should optimize the path of transforming scientific research achievements into productive forces, actively promote the innovation of financial system, adjust the income distribution and other policy suggestions, further optimize the scale of public expenditure and give full play to the role of public expenditure in promoting economic growth.
【学位授予单位】：首都经济贸易大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F812.45;F124.1

【参考文献】