基于欧债危机视角下的最优货币区理论与实践反思

发布时间：2018-05-13 02:10

本文选题：欧债危机 + 最优货币区　；参考：《武汉大学》2014年博士论文

【摘要】：关于各国应该使用固定汇率还是浮动汇率,何者能给本国带来最大的经济效益,一直以来都是各国学者争论的焦点。最优货币区理论的提出,很好的化解了这个争论,使用共同的货币,对内消除汇率的影响,对外使用统一的货币政策,既能保持成员国贸易的平衡,也能避免汇率之争,这确实是一个听上去很美好的解决方案。欧洲各国由于存在共同的价值观和世界观,一直以来都以成立一个经济政治共同体为奋斗目标,对于最优货币区理论是否正确的检验,也得以首先在欧洲实现,随着欧元区的正式成立,以及其后新成员国的加入,欧元区的经济影响力在不断加大,欧元也成为世界货币体系中的重要的组成部分。然而,2010年欧元区风云突变,随着一系列成员国的主权债务违约,以及随后对于如何实施救助政策的争论,使得人们对欧元区是否应该存在的质疑突然加大,众多学者对于此次欧债危机爆发的原因也开始进行了反思。本文就是以此为出发点,明确了欧债危机的爆发来自于最优货币区理论的不足,而最优货币区理论本身的出发点并没有较大问题,只是理论框架内的三个部分需要完善和补充。首先,欧债危机的爆发是出乎人们意料的,因为最优货币区理论在欧洲实践以后,欧元区的经济得到了快速发展,在世界经济体系中的地位也不断得到提升,但是,欧债危机的突然爆发,以及不断的蔓延和迟缓的救助,都显示出最优货币区理论肯定有不够完善的地方,才最终导致本次债务危机的爆发。因此,本文的第一部分就是通过欧债危机的爆发来寻找最优货币区理论的不足,并找出从加入标准、政策协调到退出机制三个方面的问题,为下文的展开提供了研究对象和目标。其次,找出最优货币区理论的问题所在之后,就需要进一步进行细分和深挖。因此,本文的第二部分利用三个章节来对最优货币区的加入标准,分散财政政策和统一货币政策之间的矛盾,以及最优货币区退出机制的构建分别进行研究。第三章主要抛开最优货币区理论中加入标准何者才是最优的这个争论,而是希望构建一个统一的分析框架来帮助现有成员国和即将加入的成员国判断是否应该加入最优货币区。第一步界定了不同的加入标准间的内生性问题,并按照每个加入标准背后的经济含义,设计一个对应的经济变量,将各种定性分析的加入标准统一为量化指标。第二步分析了最优货币区内的国家应该分为核心国和边缘国两类,并且核心国在最优货币区内处于主导地位。第三步按照核心国与边缘国的分类和经济指标的派讯进行了赋值,并最终得出一个平均的加入检验指标。第四章分析了最优货币区理论中的财政政策与货币政策协调问题,以及分别讨论了分散财政政策和统一货币政策的影响和制约因素。最优货币区理论刚提出时,要求必须统一财政政策和货币政策,但是在后续的发展中不断放松这个假设条件,而现实检验中发现要求一个主权国家放弃其货币是容易的,而放弃其财政手段却几乎不可能,因此,本章的主要目的就是分析在分散财政政策下的最优货币区成员国能否通过财政转移支付而消除由于异质性和非对称冲击带来的经济不稳定,结果表明如果成员国间能建议一个转移支付机制则能很好的化解经济发展的不平衡。第五章首先分析了如果存在财政冲击时,核心国和边缘国如何进行博弈。一旦博弈没有达成,则需要成员国退出才能维持最优货币区稳定。本章的重点就在于设计和构建了一个最优货币区的退出机制,并将着力点放在设计一个平稳的退出路径,使得成员国在不得不退出最优货币区时,也能以最小的影响顺利的退出,从而减少可能产生的经济波动。最后,本文的落脚点还是在于优化最优货币区理论框架,并在此框架内进行补充和完善,使得后续拟成立最优货币区的国家能避免最优货币区理论的不足所带来的经济风险。总的来说,最优货币区理论出现至今,一直伴随着质疑和争论,但是欧元区的成功建立,打消了很多人的疑问,最优货币区理论确实解决了货币政策问题,在此基础上建立了新的货币,但是一个理论的发展总是需要不断完善和加固的,才能为后来的实践者所使用。本文研究的视野是站在世界货币体系的高度,来看待最优货币区理论给世界经济所带来的深刻变化,并希望以优化以后的最优货币区理论来建立更多的最优货币区。
[Abstract]:Whether each country should use a fixed exchange rate or a floating exchange rate, which can bring the greatest economic benefit to the country, has always been the focus of debate among the scholars of all countries. The proposed theory of the optimal currency area has well defused the argument, used common currency, the effect of internal elimination of exchange rate and the use of unified monetary policy to the outside world. It is really a good solution to keep the balance of trade in the member countries and avoid the exchange rate dispute. The European countries have always been setting up an economic and political community as a goal for the existence of common values and world views. European realization, with the formal establishment of the euro zone and the accession of the new member countries, the economic influence of the euro area is increasing, and the euro is also an important part of the world monetary system. However, in 2010, the euro zone changed with the sovereign debt of a series of Member States, and then how to carry out the rescue. The debate on the aid policy has caused a sudden increase in the question of whether the euro area should exist or not, and many scholars have begun to reflect on the reasons for the outbreak of the European debt crisis. This is the starting point of this paper. It is clear that the outbreak of the European debt crisis comes from the insufficiency of the theory of the optimal currency area and the theory itself of the optimal currency area. There are no major problems, but the three parts of the theoretical framework need to be perfected and supplemented.
First of all, the outbreak of the European debt crisis is surprising, because the economy of the euro area has been rapidly developed and its position in the world economic system has been improved after the European practice. However, the sudden outbreak of the European debt crisis, as well as the unbroken spread and slow relief, all show the best currency area. Therefore, the first part of this paper is to find out the shortage of the theory of the best currency area through the outbreak of the European debt crisis, and find out the three problems from the standard, the policy coordination to the exit mechanism, and provide the research object for the following. Target.
Secondly, after finding out the problem of the optimal monetary area theory, we need further subdivision and deep digging. Therefore, the second part of this paper uses three chapters to study the criteria for the entry of the optimal currency area, the contradiction between the decentralized fiscal policy and the unified monetary policy, and the construction of the best Monetary Zone exit mechanism. The three chapter focuses on the argument that the standard is the best one in the theory of optimal currency area, but it hopes to build a unified analytical framework to help the existing member countries and the member states that will join to judge whether they should join the optimal currency area. In the second step, the second steps in the optimal currency area should be divided into two categories: the core and the marginal countries, and the core countries are in the dominant position in the optimal currency area. The third steps are in accordance with the core countries and sides. The classification of border countries and the dispatch of economic indicators have been assigned, and an average entry test index is finally obtained. The fourth chapter analyzes the coordination of fiscal policy and monetary policy in the optimal monetary area theory, and discusses the influence and restriction factors of the decentralized fiscal policy and the unified monetary policy respectively. When it is put forward, it is necessary to unify the financial policy and monetary policy, but to relax the hypothesis in the subsequent development, and it is found that it is easy for a sovereign state to give up its currency in the actual test, and it is almost impossible to give up its financial means. Therefore, the main purpose of this chapter is to analyze in the decentralized fiscal policy. The best money region member countries can eliminate the economic instability caused by the heterogeneity and asymmetric impact through the financial transfer payment. The result shows that if the member countries can recommend a transfer payment mechanism, the imbalance of economic development can be resolved well. The fifth chapter firstly analyzes the core countries and the financial shocks. The focus of this chapter is to design and construct an exiting mechanism of the optimal currency area, and put the focus on the design of a stable exit path so that member countries will have to withdraw from the best currency area, It can also exit smoothly with minimal impact, thereby reducing possible economic fluctuations.
Finally, the aim of this paper is to optimize the theoretical framework of the optimal currency area, and to supplement and improve it in this framework, so that the country that will follow up the optimal currency area can avoid the economic risk caused by the lack of the optimal monetary zone theory.
On the whole, the theory of the optimal currency area has been in question and debate, but the success of the euro zone has eliminated many people's doubts. The theory of optimal currency area has indeed solved the problem of monetary policy. On this basis, a new currency has been established, but the development of a theory always needs to be perfected and strengthened. The view of this paper is to stand at the height of the world monetary system, to see the profound changes brought by the theory of the optimal currency area to the world economy, and to establish more optimal currency areas by optimizing the future optimal monetary area theory.

【学位授予单位】：武汉大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F815;F825

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