我国各省份地方债风险及预警实证研究

发布时间：2018-05-18 00:27

本文选题：地方债 + 地方债风险　；参考：《中央财经大学学报》2017年03期

【摘要】：2014年以来,经济下行压力加大,为保增长,地方政府新增融资规模加大,加上存量债务,债务压力加大,可能导致部分地方财政信用质量下降。本文通过构建地方政府债务风险预警指标体系,采用线性加权综合评价模型,通过AHP方法确定指标权重和功效系数法为指标打分,最后确定综合分值以评价地方债风险并进行预警。实证结果表明2012年以来,部分省份债务风险呈增大的趋势。各省份地方政府债务风险增加原因不尽相同,如贵州、青海、陕西、内蒙古主要原因是债务增长速度快、债务负担重;而辽宁、山西、吉林、黑龙江则主要是由于经济增长下行幅度较大导致公共财政预算收入大幅下滑所致。研究结论为加强对各省份债务风险监控、信用风险科学评估、制定合理风险防范措施提供了科学依据。
[Abstract]:Since 2014, the downward pressure on the economy has increased, with increased local government financing to keep growth, and increased debt pressure on the stock of debt, which could lead to a decline in the credit quality of some local finances. In this paper, the local government debt risk early warning index system is constructed, the linear weighted comprehensive evaluation model is adopted, and the index weight and efficacy coefficient method are determined by AHP method. Finally determine the comprehensive score to evaluate the risk of local debt and early warning. The empirical results show that the debt risk of some provinces has been increasing since 2012. The reasons for increasing the debt risk of local governments in various provinces are different. For example, Guizhou, Qinghai, Shaanxi, and Inner Mongolia are mainly due to the rapid growth of debt and the heavy debt burden, while Liaoning, Shanxi, Jilin, Heilongjiang is mainly due to the decline in economic growth, leading to a sharp decline in public budget revenue. The conclusion provides a scientific basis for strengthening the monitoring of debt risk, evaluating credit risk scientifically and making reasonable risk prevention measures.
【作者单位】：北京交通大学国家经济安全研究院;山西财经大学财务处;
【分类号】：F812.5

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