平衡财政约束下最优国债规模与利率

发布时间：2018-05-21 02:03

本文选题：无限期界模型 + 平衡财政　；参考：《财政研究》2017年04期

【摘要】：2015年上半年资本价格暴跌反映出当前货币政策拉动中国经济复苏的乏力,需要以供给侧改革为指导的积极财政政策刺激经济的发展。国债作为积极财政政策的重要融资手段,如何在风险可控的条件下充分发挥其对经济增长的积极作用成为当下急需解决的问题。本文突破了以往在国债发行总量研究中单一注重风险控制或者经济效应的局限性,并在无限期界框架下建立理论模型,得到了从政府决策角度出发的国债规模-产出关系式。在此基础上,通过经济传导机制与决策机制反向逻辑关系的对偶转换,得出国债规模、国债利率在政府平衡预算约束下对经济总产出的影响公式。基于此公式展开实证分析得到:我国国债余额规模略高于最优规模但保持着同步变动的趋势;国债利率波动较大,最优利率水平在3.1%上下波动;国债规模应当保持相当增速以配合积极财政政策在中短期内激活经济发展动力,而在长期角度应当警惕其风险累积。
[Abstract]:The sharp fall in capital prices in the first half of 2015 reflects the weakness of the current monetary policy to drive China's economic recovery and the need for proactive fiscal policies guided by supply-side reforms to stimulate the economy. As an important financing means of active fiscal policy, how to give full play to its positive role on economic growth under the condition of controllable risk has become an urgent problem. This paper breaks through the limitation of single emphasis on risk control or economic effect in the research of the total amount of national debt issuance in the past, and establishes the theoretical model under the indefinite frame, and obtains the relationship between the scale and output of the national debt from the angle of government decision. On this basis, through the dual transformation of the reverse logical relationship between the economic conduction mechanism and the decision-making mechanism, the formula of the influence of the scale of the national debt and the interest rate of the national debt on the total economic output under the constraint of the government's balanced budget is obtained. The empirical analysis based on this formula shows that the balance of national debt in China is slightly higher than the optimal scale but keeps the trend of synchronous change, the interest rate of national debt fluctuates greatly, and the optimal interest rate level fluctuates around 3.1%. The scale of national debt should be maintained at a high speed to match the active fiscal policy to activate the economic development power in the short and medium term, while in the long run, the risk accumulation should be on the alert.
【作者单位】：中国人民大学财政金融学院、中国财政金融政策研究中心;吉林大学数量经济研究中心;吉林大学商学院;
【基金】：教育部人文社科规划项目“开放经济条件下资本流动对中国经济的影响”(项目编号:2013010079)的资助
【分类号】：F812.5

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