中国财政收支关系与预测实证研究——基于1950年-2015年收支数据的格兰杰检验和ARIMA预测

发布时间：2018-05-25 03:10

本文选题：财政收支 + 因果关系　；参考：《地方财政研究》2017年03期

【摘要】：通过选用1950年-2015年之间财政收支时间序列数据,应用Johansen协整检验、误差修正模型和Granger因果检验对财政决算收入与决算支出之间的因果关系进行分析,得出财政收支之间存在长期均衡关系且收入引起支出,这与中国以收定支的预算编制原则相适应。为推进中国财政收支预算编制更加科学合理,本研究以差分序列的自回归移动平均模型为基础,运用最小二乘回归方法拟合方程,选择对财政收入进行分析预测,寻求最优模型并提供较准确的预测效果,为财政预算从约束性转向预期性编制,建立跨年度预算平衡提供参考依据;未来财政收入增速趋缓的预测结论表明中国以民生为导向的公共财政建设正在发生积极作用。
[Abstract]:By selecting the time series data of fiscal revenue and expenditure between 1950 and 2015, using Johansen cointegration test, error correction model and Granger causality test, this paper analyzes the causal relationship between revenue and expenditure. It is concluded that there is a long-term equilibrium relationship between revenue and expenditure and that income causes expenditure, which is in line with the principle of budgeting for revenue and expenditure in China. In order to promote the development of China's budget for fiscal revenue and expenditure, based on the moving average model of autoregressive regression of difference series, the least square regression method is used to fit the equation, and the financial revenue is analyzed and forecasted. Seeking the best model and providing more accurate forecast effect, providing the reference basis for the fiscal budget to change from the binding nature to the expected preparation, and to establish the cross-annual budget balance; The forecast conclusion that the future fiscal revenue growth will slow down indicates that the construction of public finance based on the people's livelihood is playing a positive role in China.
【作者单位】：北京师范大学;
【基金】：北京市支持中央在京高校共建“公共管理重点学科建设”项目(2015-2016)
【分类号】：F812.4

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