“营改增”试点阶段的政策效果评估

发布时间：2018-05-28 23:06

本文选题：“营改增” + 宏观税负　；参考：《西北大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：“营改增”自2012年上海部分行业开始试点以来,到2013年扩展到全国,乃至2016年全行业开展,历时四年多。作为我国“十二五”期间一项重要的结构性减税措施,“营改增”的初衷是为了减轻税负和促进产业结构优化升级。在改革全面推开之际,考察“营改增”试点阶段的政策效果意义重大。本文以税制变迁理论为基础,具体分析了我国税制改革的目标以及“营改增”的经济背景,并进一步从理论上分析了“营改增”对宏观税负和产业结构的影响机理。在此基础上运用我国2009-2015年的31个省份的相关社会经济数据,引入双重差分法(DID)构建双向固定效应模型对“营改增”改革的减税效应和产业结构优化效应进行了更为系统和严格的实证检验。研究结果发现,在控制了一系列其他因素的影响之后,“营改增”改革既没有显著降低宏观税负,也没有显著提高宏观税负,而是保持了宏观税负的稳定;但“营改增”使改革省份的产业结构系数增长率提高了大约0.33个百分点,表明“营改增”确实起到加快产业结构的优化升级的作用。研究还显示,随着“营改增”行业的扩围以及具体政策的补充与落实,“营改增”对宏观税负和产业结构存在动态效应,且影响程度朝着预期的方向不断深化。总体来说,“营改增”试点阶段产生了明显的产业结构优化效应,但其减税效果还与预期存在差距。
[Abstract]:Since the pilot of some industries in Shanghai in 2012, it has expanded to the whole country in 2013 and the whole industry in 2016, which lasted for more than four years. As an important structural tax reduction measure during the 12th Five-Year Plan, the original intention of "Business Reform and increase" is to lighten the tax burden and promote the optimization and upgrading of industrial structure. It is of great significance to investigate the policy effect in the pilot stage of "camp reform and increase" when the reform is carried out in an all-round way. Based on the theory of tax system change, this paper concretely analyzes the goal of tax system reform and the economic background of "management reform and increase", and further analyzes theoretically the influence mechanism of "management reform increase" on macro tax burden and industrial structure. On this basis, relevant socio-economic data from 31 provinces in China for the period 2009-2015 are used. The double difference method (DIDD) is introduced to construct a bidirectional fixed effect model to test the tax reduction effect and industrial structure optimization effect of "Business Reform and increase" reform in a more systematic and strict way. The results show that after controlling the influence of a series of other factors, the reform of "business reform and increase" has not significantly reduced the macro tax burden, nor significantly increased the macro tax burden, but maintained the stability of the macro tax burden. However, the growth rate of the industrial structure coefficient of the reformed provinces has been increased by about 0.33 percentage points, which indicates that the "camp reform and increase" really play a role in speeding up the optimization and upgrading of the industrial structure. The study also shows that with the expansion of the industry and the supplement and implementation of specific policies, there is a dynamic effect on the macro tax burden and industrial structure, and the degree of influence is deepening in the expected direction. Generally speaking, the pilot stage of "camp reform and increase" has produced obvious industrial structure optimization effect, but its tax reduction effect still has the disparity with the expectation.
【学位授予单位】：西北大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F812.42

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