欧洲主权债务危机预警模型构建——基于突变理论和Logit模型的研究

发布时间：2018-05-30 19:04

本文选题：欧元区 + 主权债务危机　；参考：《南方金融》2015年09期

【摘要】：欧元区爆发债务危机,是在最优货币区运行机制下产生的特殊结果,也是对欧洲经济前期积累问题的一种释放,既有内因的作用,又受外因的影响。由于最优货币区运行机制存在内在矛盾,以致欧元区"经济系统"和"财政系统"越来越脆弱,在次贷危机的影响下,欧元区无法有效抑制冲击,最终爆发危机。本文将定性分析与定量研究相结合,运用"突变级数评价法"和"系统耐受性原则"分析方法,对欧元区12个主要成员国的面板数据进行研究,对各成员国的"经济脆弱性"和"财政脆弱性"加以量化,同时考虑外部冲击的影响,基于Logit模型构建欧元区主权债务危机的预警模型,运用预警模型对2013年欧元区发生债务危机的概率进行估测,并对照现实情况进行了检验。
[Abstract]:The debt crisis broke out in the euro zone is a special result produced under the optimal currency area operation mechanism, and it is also a release of the accumulation problem in the early stage of European economy, which is influenced by both internal and external factors. Due to the inherent contradictions in the operation mechanism of the optimal currency area, the "economic system" and "fiscal system" of the euro zone are becoming more and more fragile. Under the influence of the subprime mortgage crisis, the euro zone can not effectively restrain the impact and finally break out the crisis. In this paper, the qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis are combined to study the panel data of 12 major member states of the euro area by using the method of "sudden progression evaluation" and "principle of systemic tolerance". This paper quantifies the "economic vulnerability" and "fiscal vulnerability" of member countries, and constructs an early warning model for the sovereign debt crisis in the euro area based on the Logit model, taking into account the impact of external shocks. The probability of euro zone debt crisis in 2013 is estimated by using the early warning model, and compared with the actual situation.
【作者单位】：新疆财经大学金融学院;
【分类号】：F815

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