美国政府债务的演进、风险与可持续性研究

发布时间：2018-06-02 08:47

本文选题：政府债务 + 财政赤字　；参考：《辽宁大学》2014年博士论文

【摘要】：2008年全球金融危机成为发达国家债务危机的导火索，希腊首先倒下，爱尔兰、葡萄牙、意大利及西班牙也紧随其后深陷危机，发达国家财政的脆弱性一览无遗，政府债务问题广受关注。虽然美国没有同欧元区国家一样爆发债务危机，但美国政府债务也屡创新高，债务上限频繁调整，债务纷争愈演愈烈，导致外界担忧与日俱增。随着婴儿潮一代进入退休年龄，美国财政支出将承受巨大压力，构成政府债务发展的长期挑战。鉴于美国强大的国际地位，美国政府债务持续扩张带来的风险如何，能否可持续发展，将做如何调整，这些问题都将对世界经济和中国经济产生重大影响，这也正是本文试图解答的问题。本文在开放宏观的视角下，运用理论与实证、历史与比较的分析方法，在分析美国政府债务演进的基础上，结合经验数据对美国政府债务的风险和可持续性进行了实证研究，试图揭示美国债务未来发展方向，并对债务调整及其溢出影响进行了深入剖析。全文共分八章。第一章绪论。系统介绍了选题背景和意义，在梳理国内外关于债务理论和美国政府债务问题研究文献的基础上，提出了论文的研究方法、创新之处以及论文框架。第二章政府债务研究的理论框架。首先分析了债务持续扩张的风险理论，包括降低经济增长速度、通货膨胀压力增大以及发生债务危机的可能，随后详细阐述了债务可持续性的理论即政府预算约束理论，最后分析了政府债务的溢出效应。第三章美国政府债务的历史演进。本章主要结合美国1790-2013年的长时段债务数据分析了美国政府债务变化与经济思想之间的关系，重点分析了新自由主义阶段美国政府债务持续扩张的趋势，特别是金融危机以来美国政府债务高涨的特点，为美国政府债务的风险与可持续性研究提供重要背景和现实基础。第四章新世纪以来美国政府债务持续扩张的风险。本章分析了新世纪以来美国政府债务持续扩张的原因，进一步从经济增长、通货膨胀和债务危机三方面分析了债务持续扩张给美国经济带来的风险，同时也将影响美元的国际货币地位并拖累世界经济增长。第五章美国政府债务可持续性的影响因素。以政府预算约束理论为基础，从财政基本赤字、经济增长和国际经济环境三方面分析了影响美国政府债务可持续性的因素。第六章美国政府债务可持续性的实证分析。本章主要从两个方面对美国政府债务的可持续性进行考察，一方面是基于政府预算约束理论，构建财政反应函数对美国政府债务的可持续性进行实证检验；另一方面是基于对各影响因素分析的基础上，对未来美国政府债务走势进行预测。第七章美国政府债务可持续发展的调整与溢出影响。美国若想保证债务的可持续发展，必然要对高额债务进行调整，采取的措施主要包括财政整顿、金融抑制以及稳固美元的货币地位，这些调整措施也将通过贸易、金融和价格三种渠道对世界经济产生溢出影响。第八章美国政府债务与中国。本章在分析中国持有美国政府债务情况的基础上，重点阐述了美国政府债务的调整对中国经济的影响并提出了相关建议。通过研究，本文得出以下结论：首先，美国政府债务从上世纪80年代开始扩张，进入新世纪后迅速膨胀，国际金融危机之后更是屡创新高。从表面上看，财政赤字扩大、经济增速下滑、美元货币地位导致了债务快速增长，但实质上是美国执政两党理念的差异，更是各自秉承不同经济学思想所致。分析来看，美国政府债务仍将持续高涨，这不仅给美国带来经济增速下降、通货膨胀上升甚至爆发债务危机的风险，而且将深刻影响美元的国际货币地位，拖累世界经济增长。其次，以政府预算约束理论为基础，通过运用财政反应函数对美国政府债务可持续性进行实证检验，揭示出美国政府债务可以持续发展，但考虑到失业因素，财政政策的调整效果将受影响，，也就是说债务的持续性将减弱。进一步来看，对美国债务未来走势的预测也可发现债务发展前景不容乐观，这就意味着若想保证债务的可持续性，美国不仅要进行相应的财政政策调整，而且要采取包括金融抑制、美元贬值在内的多种举措。最后，作为全球最大经济体，美国财政货币政策将对世界经济产生重大溢出影响。美国持续的财政整顿和美元贬值将通过贸易渠道降低其他国家出口，进而影响各国产出；美国的金融抑制会通过金融渠道减少各国外汇储备、引发资本频繁流动以及挑战其他国家货币政策，形成更广泛的“金融抑制”；美元贬值还可以通过价格渠道将通货膨胀输出到其他国家，尤其是新兴经济体。同样，美国政府债务的调整也将对中国的贸易、外汇储备、资本流动、货币政策等方面产生重要影响，鉴于此，中国政府更应及时进行经济结构调整，降低美国政府债务调整带来的损失。
[Abstract]:In 2008 , the global financial crisis became the fuse of the developed country ' s debt crisis . Greece first fell down , Ireland , Portugal , Italy and Spain followed the crisis , and the financial fragility of the developed countries was clear , and the government ' s debt problem was widely watched . While the United States didn ' t have the same debt crisis as the euro zone countries , the U.S . government ' s fiscal spending will bear huge pressure to make up the long - term challenge of government debt development . Given the strong international status of the United States , how the risk of continuing expansion of the U.S . government debt , and how to adjust it will have a major impact on the world economy and the Chinese economy , which is the problem that this article is trying to answer .

Based on the analysis of the American government ' s debt evolution , this paper makes an empirical study on the risk and sustainability of U.S . government debt based on the analysis of the evolution of U.S . government debt .

The full text is divided into eight chapters .

The first chapter introduces the background and significance of the thesis . On the basis of combing domestic and foreign literatures about debt theory and government debt problem , this paper puts forward the research methods , innovations and the framework of the thesis .

Chapter 2 The theoretical framework of government debt research . Firstly , the risk theory of debt sustainability is analyzed , including the reduction of economic growth rate , the increase of inflationary pressure and the possibility of debt crisis , then the theory of debt sustainability , the government budget constraint theory , is elaborated . Finally , the spillover effect of government debt is analyzed .

In chapter 3 , the historical evolution of U.S . government debt is analyzed . This chapter mainly analyzes the relationship between U.S . government debt change and economic thought in combination with the long period debt of U.S . 1790 - 2013 , focusing on the trend of continuing expansion of U.S . government debt in the new liberalism stage , especially since the financial crisis , which provides an important background and realistic basis for the study of government debt risk and sustainability .

Chapter four analyzes the causes of the continued expansion of the U.S . government ' s debt since the new century . This chapter analyzes the causes of the continued expansion of the U.S . government ' s debt since the new century , further analyzes the risks associated with the continued expansion of the debt to the U.S . economy from three aspects of economic growth , inflation and debt crisis , and will also affect the international monetary status of the United States dollar and drag the world economic growth .

The fifth chapter analyzes the factors that affect the debt sustainability of the U.S . government on the basis of government budget constraint theory , from three aspects of fiscal basic deficit , economic growth and international economic environment .

Chapter 6 : An empirical analysis of the debt sustainability of the U.S . government . This chapter mainly studies the sustainability of U.S . government debt from two aspects , on the one hand , it is based on the theory of government budget constraints , and constructs the financial response function to empirically test the sustainability of government debt .
On the other hand , based on the analysis of the influencing factors , the future U.S . government debt trend is predicted .

Chapter 7 The adjustment and spill - over effect of the U.S . government ' s debt sustainability . The United States wants to make adjustments to the high debt if it wants to ensure the sustainable development of the debt . The measures taken include fiscal consolidation , financial repression and a solid dollar monetary status , which will also have a spillover effect on the world economy through three channels of trade , finance and price .

Chapter 8 U.S . government debt and China . On the basis of analyzing China ' s government debt situation , this chapter focuses on the adjustment of U.S . government debt to China ' s economy and puts forward some suggestions .

Through the study , the following conclusions are drawn :

First of all , the U.S . government debt began to expand from the 1980s to expand rapidly after entering the new century . As a result , the financial deficit widened and the economic growth slipped . The dollar ' s currency status led to the rapid growth of the debt , but in essence , the U.S . government debt will continue to rise , which not only brings about a decline in economic growth , inflation and even the risk of a debt crisis , but it will profoundly affect the international monetary status of the United States dollar and drag the world ' s economic growth .

Secondly , based on the theory of government budget constraints , the financial response function is used to empirically test the debt sustainability of the U.S . government , which reveals that the debt sustainability of the U.S . government can be sustained . However , considering the factors of unemployment , the adjustment effect of fiscal policy will be affected , that is to say , the sustainability of the debt will be reduced .

Finally , as the world ' s largest economy , fiscal policy in the United States will have a major spillover effect on the world economy . The continued fiscal consolidation and depreciation of the United States will reduce the export of other countries through trade channels , thereby affecting national output ;
Financial repression in the United States will reduce foreign exchange reserves through financial channels , trigger frequent capital flows and challenge other countries ' monetary policy to form broader " financial repression " ;
The depreciation of the United States dollar can also export inflation to other countries , particularly emerging economies , through price channels . Similarly , the adjustment of U.S . government debt will have an important impact on China ' s trade , foreign exchange reserves , capital flows , monetary policy , etc . In view of this , the Chinese government should make timely economic restructuring and reduce the loss of government debt restructuring .
【学位授予单位】：辽宁大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F817.12

【参考文献】